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Postby mrblitz » Fri Oct 27, 2006 3:37 pm

I don't like him this week either. I don't like him away from home against the number 1 overall defense, and he is not good on dirt.
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Call em as I see em!
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Oct 27, 2006 3:55 pm

BigMusky wrote:I have owned Bulger for many seasons and he just never seems to have good games, on the road, outdoors against good defenses. If he shows up this week, i would consider him must start going forward...

his split stats support this: Indoor 3:1 TD/INT ratio, Outdoor 1:1 TD/INT similiar stats apply to home/road ratio...passer rating also 20pts lower for both.


Here are all his outdoor games the past 3 years.

2006:
Week2 @ SF- 19/34/185/1/0, I was at this game, and Bulger and the Ram's offense were still way off on adjusting to the new offense. Wrong routes, overthrows, etc. Chalk this one up to adjusting to a new system. Week 3 they started getting it together.

Week6 @ GB- 18/28/220/2/0
----
2005:
Week1 @ SF- 34/56/362/2/1, I was at this game, and it was a total shooout. Bulger passed at will on us.

Week2 @ Ari- 18/29/216/1/1

Week4 @ NYG- 40/62/442/2/3 8-o 8-o

Week10 @ Sea- 28/40/304/1/1
----
2004:
Week4 @ SF- 17/25/186/1/0, I was at this game, and the Ram's running game dominated us. I remember because it was my first impression of Steven Jackson and I came away impressed. I think they ran the ball 40+ times? Bulger didn't have to pass, wasn't the conditions here.

Week5 @ Sea- 24/42/325/3/3

Week7 @ Mia- 23/39/295/1/1

Week 11 @ Buf - 27/45/287/2/3

Week 12 @ GNB- 35/53/448/2/1
----

I think if you wanna be selective and choose all the "good team" he has faced the stats will skyrocket. Bulger has actually had his worst outdoor road games against the Cardinal's and 49er's and generally they have been considered defensive doormats the past few years.

Anyways onto the conclusions. Over the past 3 years, when Bulger has played on the road in an outdoor stadium we see:

11 games
283/453 (62.5%)
3270 yards 8-o
18 TDs
13 INTs

Average
26.7/41.1, 297/1.6/1.2
fantasy- 17.48ppg (25/1, +4/-2)
--

By all means sit Marc Bulger when he goes on the road to an outdoor stadium. Especially when he has had a extra week to gameplan, everyone on the offense is fully rested, the team they are playing is missing 2 key defensive starters and are coming off an emotional defeat. My guess is that there will be almost as many Ram's fans in SD as there are Charger's fans. That is pure speculation on my part, perhaps a Charger's homer can chime in here? I get the feeling that this is going to be one of the highest scoring games in the 2006 NFL season.
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Postby jkmin79 » Fri Oct 27, 2006 4:31 pm

It's an outdoor stadium but it's in San Diego. San Diego has pretty good weather usually. I dunno, I wrestled with the same dilemma, I have Bulger and Favre. Favre isn't elite, but he's put up decent numbers this year and is playiing at home (where oddly enough he's struggled this year). But I got shouted down by the crowd when I thought about sitting Bulger for Favre.

I'm loving those early struggles, b/c it cause a frustrated owner to ditch Bulger after week 2, when I picked him up and he's been gold ever since. The reason I think Bulger will still put up good numbers this week, SD Def is beaten up, missing a starting linebacker and DL. Bulger has tons of weapons and a more balanced attack that is giving him better protection. The Rams have been together a long time, you can't buy cohesiveness. This offense over the last few years has proven that it can score on anyone. And, he has a suggestive name. Go Bulge(r)!!!!
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Postby Sp_Da_Man » Fri Oct 27, 2006 5:06 pm

This in my opinion is an example of "overthinking" it too much.

Bulger is one of the top QB's so far this season.

Unless you have P. Manning, Mcnabb & maybe E. Manning you should be starting Bulger.
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Postby beanoX3 » Fri Oct 27, 2006 5:52 pm

Some of the Bulger doubt is probably attributable to the lower amount of confidence people have about Bulger than they do about guys like McNabb, Peyton, and even Palmer to an extent. I personally think he's a great fantasy QB and have drafted him every year I've been playing fantasy football.

This week's matchup against SD could have spelled trouble for Bulger if they faced off in the beginning of the season, but now, after defensive injuries for SD and their recent loss against the Chiefs, they're pretty vulnerable IMO. Bulger seems to have gotten in stride with his receivers and Holt especially. SJax is even having a great season. I think SD is going to have a lot of problems stopping this offense.

And this week, I face the dilemma of choosing between Bulger and Rivers. Probably going with Bulger, but I think Rivers will have a good game too, so it's not much of a dilemma I guess.
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Postby BigMusky » Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:18 pm

Kensat30 wrote:----

I think if you wanna be selective and choose all the "good team" he has faced the stats will skyrocket. Bulger has actually had his worst outdoor road games against the Cardinal's and 49er's and generally they have been considered defensive doormats the past few years.

Anyways onto the conclusions. Over the past 3 years, when Bulger has played on the road in an outdoor stadium we see:

11 games
283/453 (62.5%)
3270 yards 8-o
18 TDs
13 INTs

Average
26.7/41.1, 297/1.6/1.2
fantasy- 17.48ppg (25/1, +4/-2)
--

By all means sit Marc Bulger when he goes on the road to an outdoor stadium. Especially when he has had a extra week to gameplan, everyone on the offense is fully rested, the team they are playing is missing 2 key defensive starters and are coming off an emotional defeat. My guess is that there will be almost as many Ram's fans in SD as there are Charger's fans. That is pure speculation on my part, perhaps a Charger's homer can chime in here? I get the feeling that this is going to be one of the highest scoring games in the 2006 NFL season.


in my league that would be 11.92 (50/1, +6/-3)..but your analysis is complete. I was actually leaning towards starting him, but I wanted to play devil's advocate and get some good analysis on this one. Kensat always comes through.
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Postby JasonSeahorn » Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:52 pm

What if this week we also have Grossman versus the 49ers....still use bulger?
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Postby BigMusky » Fri Oct 27, 2006 8:17 pm

Grossman has yet to play 16 games in his career, I would look to see how he rebounds before I would start him again. He should have a good game, but ya never know.
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Bulger @ San Diego

Postby kemper5 » Sat Oct 28, 2006 2:08 am

I got Bulger and Palmer and have decided to go with Palmer vs a much much worse Pass D in Atlanta.. I have a feeling we may see Bulger struggle with a 200 yard 1 TD/1 int type lower scoring game...Merriman is still right in the middle of that Chargers D..
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Re: Bulger @ San Diego

Postby dgan » Sat Oct 28, 2006 2:29 am

kemper5 wrote:I got Bulger and Palmer and have decided to go with Palmer vs a much much worse Pass D in Atlanta.. I have a feeling we may see Bulger struggle with a 200 yard 1 TD/1 int type lower scoring game...Merriman is still right in the middle of that Chargers D..


Yeah, I think everyone immediately downgraded the Charger defense when they heard of Merriman's suspension. I'm not sure everyone reconsidered after finding out he'd be playing for a couple more weeks.

Also, the Charger rushing defense was exposed last week. I would expect the Rams to at least TRY to take advantage of that. If SJax gets going, Bulger may only throw 25 -30 times this week.
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