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Do situations matter?

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Do situations matter?

Postby mattb47 » Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:14 pm

This is kind of a overflow of the Gore thread in the Player update forum but a good question is being debated there and I figured it would be good to get some more input on it.

The debate there began when it was said that it didn't matter how a player got his yardage and points, it only matters that he did get them. But the other side is saying that it does matter how they got it because it is a good indicator of how they will perform in future games.

The example from that debate is Frank Gore. He had over 100 yds rushing against Chicago, but those yards came in garbage time and he only finished with 12 carries in the entire game and on top of that he has only had 17 carries or more twice in 7 games. So the point was made that it is worth looking at that he only had limited carries and it makes his performance a little less amazing considering he did the most damage in the 4th quarter of a meaningless game.

So now the question is: "Does the situation matter in this case? Or is it ok to just assume that Frank Gore is a stud and just tore up the CHI run defense?"

Just as a footnote, this isn't meant to be a Frank Gore thread, it is meant to be a discussion of the overall topic at hand.
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Postby aaawall91 » Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:19 pm

IMO, the only case where situation matters (such as they all stats during garbage time) is the games where they dont get those yards and they have poor stats, and thus become inconsitant.

So basically Im taking it as a review of the season, it doesnt matter if they were productive in those situations or not, but when not presented with that oppurtunity and they struggle then it matters.
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Postby mattb47 » Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:25 pm

aaawall91 wrote:IMO, the only case where situation matters (such as they all stats during garbage time) is the games where they dont get those yards and they have poor stats, and thus become inconsitant.

So basically Im taking it as a review of the season, it doesnt matter if they were productive in those situations or not, but when not presented with that oppurtunity and they struggle then it matters.


I don't believe I'm completely clear on what you're saying here. Clarify a bit maybe?
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Postby Pete123444 » Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:41 pm

Two good things come out of garbage time stats. NFL experience and confidence. Neither of which are small things. Look at A Boldin's first year, it was ALOT of garbage time stats. But he gained all that experience and confidence and now is a very good WR. IMO, experience and confidence outweigh the difference in what defensive personnel are out there, or defensive playcalling.
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Postby mattb47 » Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:43 pm

This isn't meant to be a discussion on the positives and negatives of garbage time stats.....it's a question of whether it matters how a player acquired stats.
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Postby Timbathia » Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:02 pm

I think the situation does matter and it is not just stats.

In the case of Gore on sunday, I actually think those stats are important. Poor teams like the 49ers will get beat badly multiple times during the season. The fact that he was involved in the offense and still got yards when they were so far behind is IMO a plus for him as a RB.

In the case of Jordan a few weeks ago in his only good game, a lot of those yards came on one play. In that case you should take note that he was as crappy as usual, got lucky on one play, and you shouldnt expect that the upturn in stats was likely to continue.
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Postby Pete123444 » Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:02 pm

mattb47 wrote:This isn't meant to be a discussion on the positives and negatives of garbage time stats.....it's a question of whether it matters how a player acquired stats.


No.
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Postby mattb47 » Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:39 pm

Pete123444 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:This isn't meant to be a discussion on the positives and negatives of garbage time stats.....it's a question of whether it matters how a player acquired stats.


No.


Care to elaborate?
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Postby beanoX3 » Tue Oct 31, 2006 12:12 am

Situations matter a great deal for fantasy purposes IMO, RBs especially. They usually tend to disappear when teams abandon the run game trying to catch up by passing. So if a RB gets 100+ yards in a blowout game, I'd like to know if he got it when the game was close or if he got it when the other defense didn't care. It would be very easy to get the misconception that a RB was a big stud against a stout defense for getting 100+ yards if one was ignorant of how that RB got his yards. And not very helpful when using that game to determine if that RB should be used in a future matchup.

WRs are a different matter though. They're still involved with the game when their team is trying to catch up through the air. If they're targetted during garbage time, it's a good assumption that that WR is targetted in any situation.

Basically, a team's defense can clue you in on how that team's offensive players may fare throughout the season. Bad teams like SF and Arizona will be behind and throw a lot, usually abandoning the running game.

TEs are another position where it's helpful to know their situation. Take Witten for example. He was a horrible fantasy player when Bledsoe was the QB and he was needed to help block most of the game. Now that Romo is the QB, we know that he's freed up to run routes and catch passes.
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Postby Ricky_Christ » Tue Oct 31, 2006 3:35 am

Absolutely situations matter. Consistency has to be the most underrated quality in fantasy football.

I don't care if a player puts up the fantasy stats with garbage yards, but it's extremely important that I can predict those gains with some degree of accuracy. Favre is great example of that this season. Of course a lot of his points are racked up in come-from-behind scenarios, but you can look at his matchups and predict those games to a certain extent.
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