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Do situations matter?

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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Oct 31, 2006 12:19 pm

Gore is a stud. I don't care when the stats come, but the guy is averaging a bigtime ypc average against good defenses.

You just don't see Gore with an 8/20/0 type game. And even against the best run defense in the league, Gore is gonna chip in some receiving as well. The man is like Tiki Barber on a bad team. Reminds me very much of Tiki Barber earlier in his career. If he can get in that heavy weightlifting regime in the offseason, learn Tiki's new method of carrying the ball, and the Niner's have some offensive progress in the next few season, look out.

IF we're talking about this season, just check the 49er's offensive averages. Better yet, check Gore's fantasy stats. He is the #6 RB in standard scoring leagues, and this is without scoring a TD in several weeks.
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Postby mattb47 » Tue Oct 31, 2006 1:34 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Gore is a stud. I don't care when the stats come, but the guy is averaging a bigtime ypc average against good defenses.

You just don't see Gore with an 8/20/0 type game. And even against the best run defense in the league, Gore is gonna chip in some receiving as well. The man is like Tiki Barber on a bad team. Reminds me very much of Tiki Barber earlier in his career. If he can get in that heavy weightlifting regime in the offseason, learn Tiki's new method of carrying the ball, and the Niner's have some offensive progress in the next few season, look out.

IF we're talking about this season, just check the 49er's offensive averages. Better yet, check Gore's fantasy stats. He is the #6 RB in standard scoring leagues, and this is without scoring a TD in several weeks.


This isn't a discussion about Frank Gore.....if you want to argue for Frank Gore go to the thread in the player updates forum. This is a thread talking about whether or not you should be worried about/pay attention to how players get certain stats and in what situations they got them....not about any specific player. I just don't want this thread to start going off track, I'm interested to see what people think about this topic.
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Postby Matthias » Tue Oct 31, 2006 1:51 pm

Ricky_Christ nailed it on the head. Absolutely situations matter because it goes to the predicative value of that data point.

If it's a situation that is bound to repeat itself (like Favre and the Packers as R_C pointed out), that's fine. Garbage time? First half? Who cares? Favre is still going to be slinging in most games.

But if it's a situation that isn't likely to occur again (say because of a huge lead, the defense was playing a soft prevent and the RB kept getting 7-8 yard gains) then the character of a player's game is significantly different than the character of another player who amassed 120 yards and a TD in the first three quarters. And if you think that the rest of the games will be reasonably close then the garbage time stats aren't something you can rely upon and should be taken with a grain of salt.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:02 pm

mattb47 wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Gore is a stud. I don't care when the stats come, but the guy is averaging a bigtime ypc average against good defenses.

You just don't see Gore with an 8/20/0 type game. And even against the best run defense in the league, Gore is gonna chip in some receiving as well. The man is like Tiki Barber on a bad team. Reminds me very much of Tiki Barber earlier in his career. If he can get in that heavy weightlifting regime in the offseason, learn Tiki's new method of carrying the ball, and the Niner's have some offensive progress in the next few season, look out.

IF we're talking about this season, just check the 49er's offensive averages. Better yet, check Gore's fantasy stats. He is the #6 RB in standard scoring leagues, and this is without scoring a TD in several weeks.


This isn't a discussion about Frank Gore.....if you want to argue for Frank Gore go to the thread in the player updates forum. This is a thread talking about whether or not you should be worried about/pay attention to how players get certain stats and in what situations they got them....not about any specific player. I just don't want this thread to start going off track, I'm interested to see what people think about this topic.


That was on topic. Frank Gore is the prime example of players acculamating stats by whatever means necessary.

Look, there is a big difference between projecting stats and analyzing actual stats. Of course situations matter. But if a player is in the same bad situation all year long, and he is producing solid stats all year long, then the player will probably continue to produce solid stats. Using Frank Gore as an example, even if a player is seeing only 10 carries a game, if that player is averaging 5+ ypc, and is receiving 30-40 yards per game, he is worth more than a guy getting 20/55. Cadillac Williams is in the opposite boat, because if his offense gets shut down he will put up a 8/20 statline with zero receptions because he gets taken out on third downs due to Michael Pittman. You can argue that Gradkowski is killing his value.. but whose fault is the 8 carries for 20 yards and did that contribute to his having only 8 carries for 20 yards. It's a circular argument. Chicken or the egg. Player or situation. Who makes what happen.

How can you characterize a guy like Brian Westbrook and his situation? He never puts up good rushing stats, he doesn't get opportunities there, but he just producing in the receiving game. Sometimes he will rush for 18/100, but more likely he is not even gonna come close to 100 yards rushing. Does that mean he is a poor running back, or in a situation that doesn't support RBs? Or does it mean that the Eagle's are prime situation for pass catchers, and Westbrook produces there. Perhaps Westbrook is the element that makes the passing offense good, and when he struggles Donovan McNabb will stuggle, and it will be a poor offense for everyone involved.

The players make the offense around them. Either you produce or your don't. Situation = how good is your offense, and certain player's talent can play a big role in determining what kind of situation it will be. Frank Gore is a big part of (surprise surprise) an extremely underrated, yet potent, offense. He catches the ball so he will be involved no matter what direction the game goes. If he gets shut down in the run game, he still might produce fantasy wise. IF he gets shut down in the receiving game, he is still a potent RB against the best defenses in the league, even without seeing more than 10-15 carries.
Last edited by Kensat30 on Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby mattb47 » Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:09 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Gore is a stud. I don't care when the stats come, but the guy is averaging a bigtime ypc average against good defenses.

You just don't see Gore with an 8/20/0 type game. And even against the best run defense in the league, Gore is gonna chip in some receiving as well. The man is like Tiki Barber on a bad team. Reminds me very much of Tiki Barber earlier in his career. If he can get in that heavy weightlifting regime in the offseason, learn Tiki's new method of carrying the ball, and the Niner's have some offensive progress in the next few season, look out.

IF we're talking about this season, just check the 49er's offensive averages. Better yet, check Gore's fantasy stats. He is the #6 RB in standard scoring leagues, and this is without scoring a TD in several weeks.


This isn't a discussion about Frank Gore.....if you want to argue for Frank Gore go to the thread in the player updates forum. This is a thread talking about whether or not you should be worried about/pay attention to how players get certain stats and in what situations they got them....not about any specific player. I just don't want this thread to start going off track, I'm interested to see what people think about this topic.


That was on topic. Frank Gore is the prime example of players acculamating stats by whatever means necessary.

Look, there is a big difference between projecting stats and analyzing actual stats. Of course situations matter. But if a player is in the same bad situation all year long, and he is producing solid stats all year long, then the player will probably continue to produce solid stats. Using Frank Gore as an example, even if a player is seeing only 10 carries a game, if that player is averaging 5+ ypc, and is receiving 30-40 yards per game, he is worth more than a guy getting 20/55. Cadillac Williams is in the opposite boat, because if his offense gets shut down he will put up a 8/20 statline with zero receptions because he gets taken out on third downs due to Michael Pittman.

How can you characterize a guy like Brian Westbrook's situation? He never puts up good rushing stats, he doesn't get opportunities there, but he just producing in the passing game. Sometimes he will rush for 18/100, but more likely he is not even gonna come close to 100 yards rushing. Does that mean he is a poor running back, or in a situation that doesn't support RBs? Or does it mean that the Eagle's are prime situation for pass catchers, and Westbrook produces there. Perhaps Westbrook is the element that makes the passing offense good, and when he struggles Donovan McNabb will stuggle, and it will be a poor offense for everyone involved.

The players make the offense around them. Either you produce or your don't. Situation = how good is your offense. Frank Gore is a big part of (surprise surprise) an extremely underrated, yet potent, offense.


I was more pointing to that fact that your entire post was an argument for why Frank Gore was a stud, which really isn't what is being discussed here. You are entitled to your opinion, and this last post is more of the kind of respone I was looking for. Just don't want it to be a discussion for or against how good Gore is or whatever.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:12 pm

mattb47 wrote:
I was more pointing to that fact that your entire post was an argument for why Frank Gore was a stud, which really isn't what is being discussed here. You are entitled to your opinion, and this last post is more of the kind of respone I was looking for. Just don't want it to be a discussion for or against how good Gore is or whatever.


How do you debate a subject without providing an example?
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Postby mattb47 » Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:21 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
I was more pointing to that fact that your entire post was an argument for why Frank Gore was a stud, which really isn't what is being discussed here. You are entitled to your opinion, and this last post is more of the kind of respone I was looking for. Just don't want it to be a discussion for or against how good Gore is or whatever.


How do you debate a subject without providing an example?


The problem is that you weren't simply providing an example. Your post started out with the statement "Gore is a stud". And your points that followed were all supporting that statement, but the idea of Gore being or not being a stud is not the issue here.

You can and should use examples, but you turned it into an endorsement for Gore rather than pointing to his production as you did in your second post and using it more as an example. In your second post you used examples and Gore was one of them, but in your first post it was all about why Gore is a stud. Just look back at your post, you talked about Gore needing to lift weights, where Gore ranks among fantasy RBs, and looking to his future....those aren't arguments for the point of this discussion, they are endorsing Gore as a stud and telling us what he needs to do to improve.
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