Looking to make trade for an impact RB, but not sure who to target?
Take a look at Ahman Green. He was largely undervalued at draft time due to concerns over injuries and a Green Bay team that seemed like it would be playing from behind a lot.
Well, he has missed some games with some injury issues and the offense has been throwing a lot, but he has still produced well in the games he has played in. He has quietly averaged 15 points per game played (standard scoring non PPR - 18 ppg in PPR leagues). That mark is the 4th best scoring average among RBs, behind fantasy studs like LJ, LT, and Westbrook.
But wait, he has more value than this. Playing in the soft NFC North, he has a favorable schedule the rest of the way - avoiding top 10 defenses and meeting up with some poor defenses during the playoffs:
<Week: Team (Defensive Rank)>
Wk9: @ Buffalo (15)
Wk10: @ Minnesota (12)
Wk11: New England (11)
Wk12: @ Seattle (23)
Wk13: NY Jets (29)
Wk14: @ San Francisco (31) **
Wk15: Detroit (25) **
Wk16: Minnesota (12) **
** fantasy playoffs
Also, he plays a large role in the offense as one of the few pass-catchers that Favre is comfortable with. Which means he stays on the field even when the Pack is behind.
Another key factor is how far he fell in drafts. Because he was available late in drafts, it is possible that he is sitting on someone's bench. Now that the bye weeks are almost over, the Ahman Green owner in your league may be looking to transfer what Green's value into the starting lineup via a trade.
I like it, but I think most Green owners are on to this.
They have been waiting for him to produce this whole season and now he finally is. I don't think many will part with him unless they are pretty well stocked at RB or unless you give them a guy like Ronnie Brown or Kevin Jones.
But by all means try getting him... I tried.
RIDERS OF THE STORM QB Vick RB Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Lesean McCoy WR Brandon Marshall, Kenny Britt TE ? DEF Flavor of the Week K ?
[b]QB's [/b] E. MANNING / KITNA / CUTLER
[b]RBs[/b] R BROWN / WESTBROOK (R BUSH / MCGAHEE / L BETTS / D WILLIAMS )
[b]WRs[/b] ROY WILLIAMS / T OWENS / A JOHNSON / BERRIAN
[b]TE[/b] WITTEN / WATSON
[b]K[/b] GRAHAM
[b]DT[/b] PANTHERS
onnestabe wrote:But wait, he has more value than this. Playing in the soft NFC North, he has a favorable schedule the rest of the way - avoiding top 10 defenses and meeting up with some poor defenses during the playoffs
Actually, Minny and Chicago are both top 5 run defenses. Detroit is middle of the pack at #16. The NFC North is not soft when it comes to run defense.
On that list, NE is #3 in rush defense and totally shut down a much better runner behind a much better line in Chester Taylor and Minnesota.
onnestabe wrote:But wait, he has more value than this. Playing in the soft NFC North, he has a favorable schedule the rest of the way - avoiding top 10 defenses and meeting up with some poor defenses during the playoffs
Actually, Minny and Chicago are both top 5 run defenses. Detroit is middle of the pack at #16. The NFC North is not soft when it comes to run defense.
On that list, NE is #3 in rush defense and totally shut down a much better runner behind a much better line in Chester Taylor and Minnesota.
Out of 5 games played (one against Chicago's 5th ranked rush defense), Green has had less than 100 rush yards only twice (v. NO & DET), and under 100 total yards only once (v. DET).
I know his schedule leading up to the playoffs isn't the best in the world, but he will still have an impact in the majority of those games due to his role in the passing game, and I think his playoff schedule makes up for the tough road to get there. (I realize Minny is a tough D to play in week 16, but it is going to be a December game in Lambeau against a dome team, so I don't think it will be as tough for GB as it looks on paper).
saundman2000 wrote:I like it, but I think most Green owners are on to this.
They have been waiting for him to produce this whole season and now he finally is. I don't think many will part with him unless they are pretty well stocked at RB or unless you give them a guy like Ronnie Brown or Kevin Jones.
But by all means try getting him... I tried.
I would rather have Green than KJ because of playoff schedule (KJ plays MIN, @GB, CHI).
I think I would prefer to keep Ronnie Brown over Green, but it is still close in my mind.
If you can get him at a discount, he has the potential to be a huge asset for the rest of the season. I think most owners who were smart enough to value-grab him in the draft might be reluctant to trade him off cheaply, especially now that he's beginning to produce.
It still might be worth it, but expect to pay in the shark leagues.
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by onnestabe » Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:50 pm 
