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Sticking to my Guns. (long)

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Sticking to my Guns. (long)

Postby wizbang » Fri Oct 10, 2003 1:41 pm

At the beginning of the year I took the following stances.

1. Seattle will have a stud offense. They have been derailed a bit by the performance of their D and the lack of need in terms of scoring points. I don't think that will last and while the offense has still been decent fantasy wise I expect it to improve from here. Stance: Sticking to my guns!

2. Cleveland will have a stud offense. I thought Holcomb would be the key here. While I'm bailing ship on him I am not ready to abandon that offense entirely. a premier #2 FFL RB. Stance: Sticking to my guns sort of! (with a caveat that I was wrong about Holcomb and willie)

3. Michael Bennet will not make an impact this year and O. Smith is so much more talented than Chapman and Moe Williams that he will be the feature back in that RB friendly offense by midseason. Well, Moe has looked better than I thought he could. Still, Tice knows he will wear down and I he think still wants SOD to take over the feature role. Bennet? Yeah, he's walking without pain now. Great accomplishment but that's a far cry from leaving world class athletes in your wake. Stance: Sticking to my guns!

4. Marshall Faulk will surrender games to L. Gordon. No need to stick, it's come true.

5. Emmit Smith will tank it in Zona and Marcell Shipp will take over in time for FFL playoffs. No need again, it's come true.

6. The following RBs suck (fantasy wise) so draft a stud WR ahead of them: George, CMart, Mack, Staley. True. True. True. True.

7. There will be lots of good QBs in fantasy world so don't waste a high draft pick for one. True to date.

8. Vick will take a long time to get back to full health. Looking like this will be the case, but still up in the air.

Why this post? It's important to review your theories as the season progresses. You need to understand where you have made mistakes so that you don't repeat them. Also, I recommend at reviewing your entire draft from time to time to see which picks were good and which flopped. It will help develop a strategy for next year. This year I determined that Round 3 of my keeper league is a total crapshoot based on the previous season. MOST of the players selected there were flops. Also, most were "safe" plays. Conclusion: Round 3 is a good place to take a risk. This year I'll add that it's also a good time to draft a QB.

That was the good, but where have I gone wrong?

1. Willie Green - Just as he did at the beginning last season he looks scared running the ball. I don't think I've ever said that about an NFL running back before.

2. Holcomb.

3. Buckhalter - I thought Ried's plan was to have him become the feature back all the way. doah.

I'm sure there are others but those are a few.
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Postby Challie » Fri Oct 10, 2003 3:03 pm

Interesting exercise, I'll try grading myself on 1 to 10 for my instincts.

PRESEASON THOUGHTS -

1) I thought the Chargers were going to be terrible - This wasn't too hard to predict as somebody living in San Diego. I drafted Boston and steered clear of LT in the only league where I had a #2 overall pick. (I got Ricky there.) The season isn't over, LT could end up fine and Boston's suspension was a surprise (and I'm beginning to play with the conspiracy theory that it was partly engineered by the team to use the $3 million suspension clause in his $47 million contract) he might be good as thought with the Chargers playing from behind.
Instinct rating: 9

2) Just like wizbang, I thought Correll Buckhalter was Reid's guy. Wrong.
Instinct rating: 1

3) Not buying that QB controversies were over. I steered clear of Holcomb and was able to draft Bulger late. Very happy with Marc now.
Instinct rating: 7

4) Also like wizbang, I avoided all older RBs. Taking a pass on George, Martin, Taylor, even Faulk was painful on draft day but I'm feeling OK now.
Instinct rating: 8

5) Stud WRs are perhaps more valueable than stud RBs. By stud WRs I mean three guys: Harrison, TO and Moss. In my money league I was burnt thinking that one would come back and slip to 15 overall. All three were gone. I still believe that having two of these three guys (yes not having a RB in the first couple of rounds) is a great draft strategy. Having one of them at least is a ticket to the playoffs. There are some happy Moss & Harrison owners so far and I predict the same for TO owners. These three guys have been the most consistent guys in football for the past four years.
Instinct rating: 8
My ability to stick to my instinct: 3


6) Not buying the hype on the next wave of WRs. I really had no faith in guys like Stallworth, Lelie, Boerighter, D.Bennett and the like. And I didn't trust Tier 2 guys like K-Rob, Horn, Ward, Burress to supplant TO, Moss & Harrison. I was mostly but not totally right about both of those statements.
Instinct rating: 6

7) The Bengals would start to click. OK, their record is not great, but I think they have shown some improvement. Johnson is justifying my love somewhat, Dillon has not.
Instinct rating: 5

8) I bought into Hasselbeck hype. I don't know why, I've just been too pro-Seattle for too long and been burned. For once, I wasn't. Also, it's easy to pluck a guy out of the pool of Tier 2 QBs.
Instinct rating: 9

9) I wanted no part of Shockey or Gonzalez. Sure they're nice to have on the roster but I could always count on them going about 2 rounds before they should. This held true not only in my drafts but every draft I've seen. By the way, Shockey as of today has 2 lifetime TDs.
Instinct rating: 8

10) I thought there were 3-4 tier one QBs: Manning, McNabb, Culpepper and Warner, each worth taking in rounds 2 or 3, but hopefully one could slip to round 4. I was wrong about the round 4 slipping in all drafts, and only right about Manning & maybe Culpepper about being elite. 1.5 out of 4 is not good enough to justify an early pick.
Instinct rating: 3


Anybody else care to look their preseason thoughts in the mirror?
... in my opinion, of course - but that should always go without saying.
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Fri Oct 10, 2003 3:46 pm

Youa ere pretty good, but I don't agree with your stud RB one. I don't think there were any studs left when those guys were drafted in most leagues.

I am a first year player, and I made a couple mistakes on draft day. I ended up with this in a 8-team league:
QB McNair, Hasselbeck, Carter, Brooks
RB Portis, Henry, Wgreen, Hambrick, Foster
WR Harrison, K-Rob, Ajohnson, Shaw, Porter, Kjohnson
PK Akers
D Miami
I think I have a pretty good team after a couple trades, and A LOT of waivers. I have an empty roster spot, I will find a guy sooner or later.
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Postby deftdelivery » Fri Oct 10, 2003 7:01 pm

I was actually high on Kurt Warner - I thought the guy would recover and step up his game with Bulger pressing for playing time...especially after Warner having such a great game against the Bucs in the pre-season.

Learned 2 things:
1 - Preseason doesn't mean jack squat
2 - If a guy has a flop-season the year before, he's going to flop all over again
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Sat Oct 11, 2003 4:08 pm

Deft, where the heck did you get that pic in your av? That is pretty good. I also thought that Warner would do good, and that Will Green would continue his production from where he left off last year...
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Postby Bukoski77 » Sat Oct 11, 2003 5:02 pm

1. I thought Ahman Green was primed to rebound to top 3 RB status.

rateing 9, so far so good.

2. Marc Bulger would be the man, my 3rd QB taken 16th round

rateing 4, would be much higher but I traded him for Darrell Jackson the week before his first start.

3. I thought Garcia would be a tier 1 QB

rateing 4, has ability but cant stay healthy or produce consistently

4. Stephen Davis and Jamal Lewis would be studs

rateing 8, so far so good

5. David Boston would be a top 15 reciever

rateing 3, 1 good game my a$$. I dont want to talk about Boston anymore

6. Fred Taylor would produce

rateing 7, Will go up if he actualy stays healthy

7. Laveranous Coles would not perform without Pennington

rateing 2. Im a Vols fan also, I thought I was through haveing to frigging hate Spurrier

8. Kickers are to be drafted dead last

rateing 10, realy not worth mentioning but I'm trying to get to 10 here.

9. Gannon was not elite

rateing 7, its turning into a long season

10. Edge would not stay healthy

rateing 9, many owners are kicking the walls now





BTW, I dont have all those guys on any of the same team that I thought would do good. Those are guys and moves I made in drafts of a couple leagues.
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Postby deftdelivery » Sat Oct 11, 2003 6:29 pm

M_Zimm wrote:Deft, where the heck did you get that pic in your av? That is pretty good. I also thought that Warner would do good, and that Will Green would continue his production from where he left off last year...


It's Rod Smart, aka HE HATE ME from the XFL...
I got it from a friend, but I believe he found it on the NFL players page
Last edited by deftdelivery on Sat Oct 11, 2003 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby deftdelivery » Sat Oct 11, 2003 6:29 pm

and Thanks, im glad you like it
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Sat Oct 11, 2003 6:39 pm

deftdelivery wrote:
M_Zimm wrote:Deft, where the heck did you get that pic in your av? That is pretty good. I also thought that Warner would do good, and that Will Green would continue his production from where he left off last year...


It's Rod Smart, aka HE HATE ME from the XFL...
I got it from a friend, but I believe he found it on the NFL players page

Cool, how does he fit all that hair in his helmet?
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Postby MMH » Sat Oct 11, 2003 7:13 pm

K based on what i was planning pre season....

1 The Atlanta Falcons DEF will be one of the best this year.

I picked them up in round seven. Lauvernes Coles was picked up right after that by the next team. I ended up ditching them and picking up Buffalo of the FA. Could have been worse i guess...

2 Dante Hall will become more involved in the KC offence

Hmm not quite. Still he has more than rewarded me thus far as he picked him up in the sixth round. Ive had him the past 2 seasons now and he holds my team together most of the time.

3 Aaron Brooks will be the best FF QB this season

Pfft!

4 That guy in my draft who picked up Michael Vick as a first round pick will regret it.

Seeing as his second pick was Shockey and his back up QB was Kurt Warner im sure he does.

5 I will not be left with a Running Back tandem of Antowain Smith and Duce Staley this year.

Thankfully I got LT as my first pick.

6 Marcel Shipp will end up as Arizonas starting RB

Kind of I guess. Sure he got there through injury but I thought he was too talented to ignore.

7 Duante Culpepper is too inconsistant to warrant a pick up as my number 1 QB, I will go with Aaron Brooks

Gah! Luckily I got Favre as back up

8 Daniel Graham will be the sleeper TE of the year.

May TE is now Christian Fauria....

9 Arizona will be one of the worst sides from an FF point of view

Well even Stevie Wonder could have seen that one coming....

10 Moe Williams looks to be a very nice pick up as my number 2 RB

So far so good. I have picked up bennett as back up too so I am happy with that.

Not really the best pre season predictions.....
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