An article EVERYONE needs to read about Michael Vick - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

An article EVERYONE needs to read about Michael Vick

Moderator: Football Moderators

Postby EagleFan68 » Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:06 pm

I never said he was a bad Fantasy QB, but he's not a good one either, he's too inconsistant to trust.

Taking Fantasy Football out of the mix, he is probably the worst QB in the NFL. He is dumb, he can't read defenses, and after he looks at his first read he pulls it down and takes off. He doesn't have any patience back there, he's always looking to run first.
[b]QB's [/b] E. MANNING / KITNA / CUTLER
[b]RBs[/b] R BROWN / WESTBROOK (R BUSH / MCGAHEE / L BETTS / D WILLIAMS )
[b]WRs[/b] ROY WILLIAMS / T OWENS / A JOHNSON / BERRIAN
[b]TE[/b] WITTEN / WATSON
[b]K[/b] GRAHAM
[b]DT[/b] PANTHERS
EagleFan68
Head Coach
Head Coach


Posts: 1719
Joined: 28 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Patchell » Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:14 pm

He also got half his passing TD total in a two game span as well. That's not very consistent in my opinion. If you take out those 7 td passes he's averaging less than 1 td per game. Sure he has consistency... just it's 12-14 points per game.

A couple of great games a great fantasy Quarterback does not make.

Chris Peterson built up a pretty good straw man arguement, but for me (and probably a lot of others) it just doesn't fly.
Patchell
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Mock(ing) DrafterMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 1092
Joined: 28 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Canada

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:27 pm

Gnu314 wrote:I've had Vick on my bench all season long in my $$ league. After reading the article I looked to see about how many points he had truly accumulated over the season.

with 50/1/6 and 10/1/6 Vick lead all QBs, besting Peyton by 2 points.

I think hey may get some nods in the playoffs if Bulger continues to struggle.


Wow, I can't believe you are sitting Vick in a 10/1 rushing vs. 50/1 passing league. That is insane!

100 yards rushing = 500 yards passing!

Vick's last game where he rushed for 166 is the equivalent to 830 yards passing 8-o
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby skinsfan » Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:39 pm

Leagues that award crap points for yardage stink. 10 yards rushing and 20-25 passing should always equal a point.
Skins fan through thick and thin.
skinsfan
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2228
Joined: 6 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: DC

Postby Patchell » Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:23 pm

If you eliminate his best and worst totals from the year and average it

In standard scoring (and In Brackets 1 point per 20 rush/receive yard, 1 per 50 passing, 4 points per passing TD, 6 for all others) [and in square brackets 1 point per 10 rush/receive yard, 1 per 30 passing, 4 points per passing TD, 6 for all others]

155 pasing yards = 6pts (3) [5]
1td = 6 pts (4) [4]
73 yds rushing = 7pts (3) [7]
.77 int = -1.54
.56 fumbles = -1.12
.11 Rushing TD = .66

= 17 pts per game average (9) [14]

If you eliminate his two worst and best performance

153 yds passing = 6 (3) [5]
.85 td = 5.1 (3.4) [3.4]
69 yds rushing = 6 (3) [6]
.71 int = -1.42
.57 fumbles = -1.14

= 14.54 per game average (6.84) [11.84]

So my conclusion must be that if you factor out Vicks best and worst games, on average you can expect 14.54 - 17 points.

Peyton Manning

Top and Worst Removed

266 yds passing = 10 pts (5) [8]
1.77 TD's = 10.62 (7.08) [7.08]
.88 Int's = -.88

= 19.74 (11.2) [14.2]

2 top and worst removed

267 yds passing = 10pts (5) [8]
1.33 TD's = 7.98 = (5.32) [5.32]
.33 Int = -.66

= 17.32 (9.66) [12.66]

What does this all mean? First of all it's clear the author used statistics that favoured Vick. Of course when he's getting 10 yds per point rushing he's going to have inflated numbers, but as soon as you got to 15 or 20 yds per point suddenly his value come crashign down. While Vick may go off and have a big day a couple times a year, he will also have a couple of below average stinkers.

While Vick may be a top 5 in the [author of the article scoring format] in ("50 touchdows 50% yardage) he's usesless, and in standard scoring he finds himself somehwere in the middle.

I think my math is all right... but i'm not sure.
Patchell
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Mock(ing) DrafterMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 1092
Joined: 28 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Canada

Postby The Lung » Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:54 pm

Some of you are just like the thick-headed Fanball editors he describes in his article. Vick has 870 rushing yards! He ranks 11th in the entire NFL, ahead of Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Willis McGahee, and Kevin Jones, just to name a few, and will easily eclipse 1000 yards rushing this year.

Are some of you guys blind? Did you miss the following:

50% touchdowns, 50% yardage, Quarterback-Heavy
(1 point per 20 rush/receive yard, 1 per 50 passing, 6 points per passing TD, 6 for all others):
Rank Player Points
1 Peyton Manning 192.8
2 Drew Brees 175.5
3 Donovan McNabb 174.8
4 Carson Palmer 170.6
5 Tom Brady 162.4
6 Michael Vick 157.0


He showed the data for Vick in formats that specifically go against him as great as possible - in leagues where rushing yardage is only 1 point per 20 yards rushing, and passing TDs (which Vick doesn't have a lot of) are 6 points and greatly favor other QBs. And Vick is still #6. And I'm willing to bet that in leagues where QBs receive one point per 25 yards passing, Vick is still a top 10 fantasy QB. If you're still doubtful, try it in your league. Sort all the QBs by fantasy points and see where Vick lands.

Like the author, I am simply amazed that people continue to ignore Vick's value as a fantasy QB when it's staring them right in the face. And similarly, I'll continue to score the steal of the draft when Vick falls to me in the 10th or 11th rounds of drafts next year. ;-D
(~);}

Image

(~);}
The Lung
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9850
(Past Year: 61)
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Disgusted with Mocha Bean

Postby deacon » Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:23 pm

C'mon Lung! You know you can't tell grown folk nothing!
Bacon is the greatest meat of all!
deacon
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar

Posts: 792
Joined: 7 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: South of Atlanta

Postby Azrael » Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:48 pm

The Lung wrote:
Azrael wrote:He also fails to point out how Vick is absolutely, completely worthless in TD heavy leagues, or leagues where you only get points upon meeting yardage threshholds such as 300yds passing or 100yds rushing.


Does anyone play in those kinds of leagues?

Is there really a league where a RB or QB only receives points if he exceeds 100 yards rushing? Or a WR, TE, or RB must exceed 100 yards receiving? And if he only puts up 99 yards he gets zero? And if a QB throws for 299 he gets zero? I can see bonus points for achieving the milestone, but zero points for not crossing the threshold is gotta be one of the dumbest things I've ever heard of.


Yep, I'm in one.

I'm not denying Vick's value this year. In my main money league , he is just 2 points away from being the No. 1 QB.

Here's Vick's game by game scoring in that league

18, 25, 10, 16, 18, 29, 28, 17, 18, 14, 19

212pts, 104 or nearly half have come from rushing.

He's averaging 19.27 points per game this year, 9.45 points have come from rushing, 9.82 from passing.

Doing a quick and dirty on his 2004 and 2005 stats we see that Vick averaged 17.13 points per game in 2004, 7.2 from rushing, 9.93 from passing; and 16.73 ppg in 2005, 6.33 from rushing and 10.4 from passing

It appears to me from the stats that his passing performance is just never going to change. It's because his rushing performance is up almost 3 full points per game that he is doing so well this year. You might not think 3ppg is that much but it is monumental. Palmer is averaging 17.6 ppg and Grossman is averaging 14.8...which one would you rather have. 3 points per game is the difference between a solid starting QB and a guy that makes you scour the WW every week.

All I'm saying is that I'm not going to be all over Vick next year because of this year. I don't think he can put up near 1,200 yards every year. It's what we call a career year.
Image
Azrael
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 8283
(Past Year: 7)
Joined: 29 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Keeping da cafe sucka free for 9 years straight

Postby Timbathia » Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:21 pm

I start Vick every week in my main league. Eli was initially my starter and I drafted Vick as the 24th QB taken in the draft.

He is currently 5th in our scoring format, and his worst game this season was 137yds passing and 57 rushing with no TDs. Brees, Peyton and McNabb have ALL had an equivalently poor game compared to that.

I dont see all the fuss. The dude cant pass for nuts but right now I am more than happy starting him every week.
Timbathia
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar

Posts: 975
Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Geelong, Australia

Postby The Lung » Fri Dec 01, 2006 9:58 am

deacon wrote:C'mon Lung! You know you can't tell grown folk nothing!


Sadly, I'm starting to come to that realization. :,-(

Here's something I just received today from the ESPN.com Fantasy Newsletter:

Why all the hatred for Michael Vick? For fantasy football owners, Vick has actually never been better than in 2006. Here are five reasons to like Vick in fantasy.
  • The numbers are there: Unless your league gives extra points for passing yards, the overall fantasy value of Vick is excellent. Only three quarterbacks have more ESPN fantasy points this season. Stop worrying about how Vick gets his points, or the fact he's always been known as a highlight machine, and just be thankful he's having a career season statistically as well.
  • He's consistent: Vick has reached double digit fantasy points in every game, and topped 20 points three times. Vick doesn't cost owners games with poor performances. In contrast, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, fantasy's top three QBs, have combined for five games in single digits.
  • Run, Michael, run: Vick might reach 1,000 yards rushing as soon as this week. Most quarterbacks face a tough passing defense every few weeks, or weather issues, or just an off-game, but when a QB supplement his value by running, he often avoids such pitfalls. Consider that only 10 running backs have more rushing yards than Vick, and one realizes we're seeing a special season indeed.
  • Big game possibility: With his seven passing touchdowns in Weeks 7-8, Vick showed us he's capable of airing it out and throwing for big numbers, even though he's relied on running since. In the past there was little threat of terrific passing games. If you're going to play a fantasy QB because he might have a big game, why not play this one, who can also run like no other QB?
  • Motivation: The Falcons' four-game losing streak, and watered down NFC, ensures that each game will be critical to Vick and his team. There won't be any clinching of playoff spots early. He won't be benched. And Vick's recent off-field issues shouldn't affect his on-field play negatively. Week 12 was his fourth-best fantasy game of the season, so he's not slumping. And Atlanta's schedule still features struggling defenses like Tampa Bay and Philly.
(~);}

Image

(~);}
The Lung
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9850
(Past Year: 61)
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Disgusted with Mocha Bean

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 22:24 hours
(and 38 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact