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Warrick Dunn's Future

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Re: Warrick Dunn's Future

Postby Kingctb27 » Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:51 pm

skinsfan wrote:
BrutallyHuge wrote:
skinsfan wrote:[He's a little tall for my liking and is not built proportionally (5'11", 205 lb). Compare this to Jamal Lewis (5'11", 245 lb) and Ronnie Brown (6'0", 235 lb).


5'10", 205 - Tiki Barber
5'11", 212 - Clinton Portis
6'0", 214 - Edgerrin James
5'10", 216 - Emmitt Smith
5'11", 200 - Reggie Bush

These guys must suck. I know it's strange, but people can actually add body mass. See Parker, Willie.

Norwood doesn't have the speed of Portis, the moves of James and Bush, or the vision of Smith and Barber. He has very good blockers, but that won't last forever. I've watched Norwood quite a bit, and I just don't see any one ability that makes him stand out.

He doesn't have the speed of Portis?

He's one of the fastest RB's in the league.

The guy is averaging just about 6 yards a carry this year... That doesn't impress you?
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Re: Warrick Dunn's Future

Postby skinsfan » Wed Dec 06, 2006 1:24 pm

kingctb27 wrote:He doesn't have the speed of Portis?

He's one of the fastest RB's in the league.

The guy is averaging just about 6 yards a carry this year... That doesn't impress you?

I can say with little doubt that since Az Hakim aged, Santana Moss and Portis are probably the two fastest players at their positions in the game. I say this because I have yet to see one defensive player be able to run them down once they get going. On that play we saw last Sunday, Norwood was caught, they just couldn't tackle him. Rogers had him step for step.

Also, Norwood's average does look impressive. But he's only carried the ball a mere 77 times. This scream "change of pace guy", "give-up play guy" and "HB Draw guy". As a feature back carrying 20+ times per game, you can expect him to average between 4-5 yards like every other back.

Also, his two longest runs of the year came in the fourth quarter against the Redskins who were tackling like the Cardinals, and against the Cardinals. These were runs of 69 and 78 yards, respectively, and both resulted in his only two touchdowns of the season.
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Re: Warrick Dunn's Future

Postby mattb47 » Wed Dec 06, 2006 1:41 pm

skinsfan wrote:
BrutallyHuge wrote:
skinsfan wrote:[He's a little tall for my liking and is not built proportionally (5'11", 205 lb). Compare this to Jamal Lewis (5'11", 245 lb) and Ronnie Brown (6'0", 235 lb).


5'10", 205 - Tiki Barber
5'11", 212 - Clinton Portis
6'0", 214 - Edgerrin James
5'10", 216 - Emmitt Smith
5'11", 200 - Reggie Bush

These guys must suck. I know it's strange, but people can actually add body mass. See Parker, Willie.

Norwood doesn't have the speed of Portis, the moves of James and Bush, or the vision of Smith and Barber. He has very good blockers, but that won't last forever. I've watched Norwood quite a bit, and I just don't see any one ability that makes him stand out.


Portis: 4.41 on the 40
Norwood: 4.40 on the 40

Yea....Norwood isn't even close to Portis.... :-?

I'm not sure what you could be talking about when you say you haven't seen much about him this year that makes him stand out. He's been very good nearly every time he's touched the ball this season. He is a good looking speed RB (like BH said, recall one Willie Parker to memory) and the offseason between their rookie year and sophomore year is the year they bulk up more. He'll have more weight to him next year when he would get more carries and I think he'll be a very nice RB.

I'm not sure how you can speak of his "vision" right now when he is averaging 6.7 ypc and has only seen limited time. I don't think there has been enough of him seen to know how good his vision is in comparison to other NFL vets. Surely you aren't assuming that any of the rookie RBs are SUPPOSED to have some of the more "veteran" attributes such as good vision.....I haven't seen anything yet that tells me he doesn't have good vision yet though.

It is terrible reasoning to argue using lack of sufficient data as proof. You can't argue he'll only be a good change of pace back just because he has been a good change of pace back....until you see him in the starting job where he gets 20+ carries, you can't say he wont be able to do it. Not when he's been so successful.
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Re: Warrick Dunn's Future

Postby skinsfan » Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:15 pm

mattb47 wrote:It is terrible reasoning to argue using lack of sufficient data as proof. You can't argue he'll only be a good change of pace back just because he has been a good change of pace back....until you see him in the starting job where he gets 20+ carries, you can't say he wont be able to do it. Not when he's been so successful.


In any case, why isn't Mora playing him more? Dunn's stats don't stand out (4.2ypc) and he's much older, so there must be another reason that data can't back up. Is Dunn the starter simply because of experience and age? This is possible, but in 2002, a younger Dunn carried 230 times to the rookie Duckett's 130. This season, he's already carried the rock 229 times to Norwood's 77.
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Re: Warrick Dunn's Future

Postby mattb47 » Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:10 pm

skinsfan wrote:
mattb47 wrote:It is terrible reasoning to argue using lack of sufficient data as proof. You can't argue he'll only be a good change of pace back just because he has been a good change of pace back....until you see him in the starting job where he gets 20+ carries, you can't say he wont be able to do it. Not when he's been so successful.


In any case, why isn't Mora playing him more? Dunn's stats don't stand out (4.2ypc) and he's much older, so there must be another reason that data can't back up. Is Dunn the starter simply because of experience and age? This is possible, but in 2002, a younger Dunn carried 230 times to the rookie Duckett's 130. This season, he's already carried the rock 229 times to Norwood's 77.


You cannot argue that because a coach is starting a veteran coming off of a season where he finished 8th in the NFL in rushing yards at 1416 yds ahead of a rookie RB, that it is because the rookie really isn't that good. 4.2 ypc really isn't that bad actually, it's not amazing but it surely isn't enough to bench a veteran RB or even cause him to lose carries. His 4.2 ypc is better than: Chester Taylor, Clinton Portis, Corey Dillon, Thomas Jones, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Ronnie Brown, DeShaun Foster, Rudi Johnson, Cadillac Williams, Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Shaun Alexander, Reuben Droughns, Edgerrin James.

Yes Duckett has 130 carries in 2002, but seriously, look at the other factors. It was Dunn's first season in Atlanta and he was coming off a year of only 158 carries for just 447 yds. You cannot use youth here as an argument because 2 of Dunn's 3 best seasons have been in the last 2 years. Also consider that Duckett was a different type of runner (power) than Dunn (speed) while Norwood is a speed back himself....hardly usable as a change of pace back. I still don't believe you can argue that because we haven't seen much of Norwood that it's proof that he wont be good when we do.
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Re: Warrick Dunn's Future

Postby TheDiplomats » Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:15 pm

skinsfan wrote:
BrutallyHuge wrote:
skinsfan wrote:[He's a little tall for my liking and is not built proportionally (5'11", 205 lb). Compare this to Jamal Lewis (5'11", 245 lb) and Ronnie Brown (6'0", 235 lb).


5'10", 205 - Tiki Barber
5'11", 212 - Clinton Portis
6'0", 214 - Edgerrin James
5'10", 216 - Emmitt Smith
5'11", 200 - Reggie Bush

These guys must suck. I know it's strange, but people can actually add body mass. See Parker, Willie.

Norwood doesn't have the speed of Portis, the moves of James and Bush, or the vision of Smith and Barber. He has very good blockers, but that won't last forever. I've watched Norwood quite a bit, and I just don't see any one ability that makes him stand out.

No abilities to stand out? The guy may dance a little to much, but he's got game-breaking speed. You act like this is the first time Norwood has broke the big one. He has made some incredible plays this year. Norwood hits the hole with power and once he's in the secondary, he's gone. Take it from me, I live in Atlanta and watched him alot in the preseason where he turned nothing into something and made it into a 50 yard TD run. The only knock on Norwood is the size of his legs..they are skinny..but a little bit of work in the weight room can change that.

To say he wouldn't last or be 'average' if you gave him the rock 20 times a game is just stupid. At Missippi State behind a piss poor offensive line, he played about as good as anyone could have asked him to. Put him on a team in college with a good QB that doesn't let defenders stack the box and a good O-Line and he's a first round draft pick this year. No questions asked.

As for why he's not getting as many carries as Dunn, I really don't know.
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Re: Warrick Dunn's Future

Postby JasonSeahorn » Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:36 pm

TheDiplomats wrote:
skinsfan wrote:
BrutallyHuge wrote:
skinsfan wrote:[He's a little tall for my liking and is not built proportionally (5'11", 205 lb). Compare this to Jamal Lewis (5'11", 245 lb) and Ronnie Brown (6'0", 235 lb).


5'10", 205 - Tiki Barber
5'11", 212 - Clinton Portis
6'0", 214 - Edgerrin James
5'10", 216 - Emmitt Smith
5'11", 200 - Reggie Bush

These guys must suck. I know it's strange, but people can actually add body mass. See Parker, Willie.

Norwood doesn't have the speed of Portis, the moves of James and Bush, or the vision of Smith and Barber. He has very good blockers, but that won't last forever. I've watched Norwood quite a bit, and I just don't see any one ability that makes him stand out.

No abilities to stand out? The guy may dance a little to much, but he's got game-breaking speed. You act like this is the first time Norwood has broke the big one. He has made some incredible plays this year. Norwood hits the hole with power and once he's in the secondary, he's gone. Take it from me, I live in Atlanta and watched him alot in the preseason where he turned nothing into something and made it into a 50 yard TD run. The only knock on Norwood is the size of his legs..they are skinny..but a little bit of work in the weight room can change that.

To say he wouldn't last or be 'average' if you gave him the rock 20 times a game is just stupid. At Missippi State behind a piss poor offensive line, he played about as good as anyone could have asked him to. Put him on a team in college with a good QB that doesn't let defenders stack the box and a good O-Line and he's a first round draft pick this year. No questions asked.

As for why he's not getting as many carries as Dunn, I really don't know.


mattb47 pointed out in an earlier post that dunn still has a good average, and leads a lot of other rbs in rushing yards. the difference between atlanta and other RBBC's is the nature of the RBBC: Dallas has speed (Julius) and power (marion). Denver has speed (tatum) and power (i'd argue mike bell). Other teamsm including atlanta in the past couple years, used this formula for their RBBC. but like mattb47 also pointed out, norwood and dunn are both speed runners, so atlanta couldn't use norwood in the same way they used to use duckett.

and to answer TheDiplomat, i think Dunn is still seeing more carries because he is the established starter and has deserved his starting spot. If the falcons look like they will be out of the playoff picture, then they may use norwood more to see what they have. Dunn was posting great numbers early in the season, he is probably tired from it....norwood will probably see a slight increase in carries, maybe getting 10-15 touches a game, so that dunn's legs stay fresh.
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Re: Warrick Dunn's Future

Postby skinsfan » Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:58 pm

mattb47 wrote:You cannot argue that because a coach is starting a veteran coming off of a season where he finished 8th in the NFL in rushing yards at 1416 yds ahead of a rookie RB, that it is because the rookie really isn't that good.

and
mattb47 wrote:It was Dunn's first season in Atlanta and he was coming off a year of only 158 carries for just 447 yds. You cannot use youth here as an argument because 2 of Dunn's 3 best seasons have been in the last 2 years. Also consider that Duckett was a different type of runner (power) than Dunn (speed) while Norwood is a speed back himself....hardly usable as a change of pace back.


Well put. I concede defeat.
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Postby Goatwhacker » Wed Dec 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Any Falcons fans out there could probably answer this, but isn't Warrick Dunn one of those solid citizen, "Man of the Year" type players, beloved in Atlanta? Isn't there a chance the Falcons will hold onto him until retirement because of his popularity?
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Postby TheDiplomats » Wed Dec 06, 2006 8:24 pm

Goatwhacker wrote:Any Falcons fans out there could probably answer this, but isn't Warrick Dunn one of those solid citizen, "Man of the Year" type players, beloved in Atlanta? Isn't there a chance the Falcons will hold onto him until retirement because of his popularity?

He is a very nice guy and the announcers of the games down here often talk about donations he's made or things hes done to help the community.

However, when it comes to Arthur Blank and the fact that he wants a winning team, if Dunn isn't getting the job done or demands to much money, they would let him go. Why pay alot of money to Dunn when you can get a younger faster back in Norwood? If he resigns in Atlanta, he may not get very much money.
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