Ok, you all gave me great input when I asked before... and now the scenario has changed.... what tack would you take?
Picking 8th, 10-team league.. standard 1QB 2RB 2WR TE K D...
Here are the guys who I believe will go.... Faulk, Warner, Green, Moss, Alexander, Holmes, Owens.....
SO... top 2 receivers gone... My first thought is to get two solid, starting running backs with my two quick picks.... would you go this way? Or get RB - Manning? I think 2.03 might be early for a Harrison or Boston... but maybe not. Maybe RB-WR is the play.... I'm POSITIVE the guy picking 9th will take 2 RB... and #10 will take at least one.
Also.. with that 8th pick... I'm eyeing Curtis Martin or Ricky Williams. Everybody ranks Williams high, but damn, he's never actually put up the expected numbers (injuries) and Martin just flat out carries the load every single year. I'm leaning towards his consistency, and then hoping to catch Dillon or LT or A-train on the way back.... (unless I go QB or WR --- arrgghhh! isn't this fun?)
I would go with 2 RBs first...There should still be some good QBs left in the 3rd round (Favre, Culpepper, etc...) I have never really jumped on the Williams bandwaggon...for some reason he doesn't impress me...I like Martin, but he may lose some TDs to Jordan...George would be a great pick!! He's in great shape and has a new lead blocker that can help him out a lot!!! I also like A Train, especially since he's supposed to get more touches Those would be my first two picks...I'm not certain about LT, and without a passing game Dillon may be a little suspect, and don't forget about McAllister who is in for a great season as well!!!!
if i were you id use those first picks to grab 2 RB since you said that there will probably be some taken from the back to back pick id try to grab 2 of these player: Martin, Tomlinson, George, A-Train in that order. im jumping on tomlinsons bandwagon this year because he put up great numbers and has a new run based offense to play with this year and i agree that even though he screwed me last year George will be back in form
You're probably most concerned with 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and 1 QB, so look at the various mock drafts out there and see where that talent is being grabbed. Then diagram some possible drafting order scenarios:
It should become quite clear that if you don't draft RBs early enough, like 1st-3rd rounds, the leftovers won't be that appealing. On the other hand, in 12-team leagues you have WRs the likes of Finneran and Freeman falling into the free agency pool, so they are just about guaranteed to do so in your smaller league. WR's are much more plentiful, and the talent doesn't drop off as quickly.
In my mind, it basically comes down to what you are willing to do at QB, and how good you think you are at judging RBs chances for a good season. If you think you can win with any QB (and you probably can), you can afford to grab your RBs and WRs before worrying about your QB.
Also, of course, pay attention to who is drafted. As much as I like the stud RB theory, if Warner falls to me at 1.08, he's mine. I stress getting two RBs out of the 1st 3 picks though unless you are getting messages from God that some lower-ranked RB like Pittman or Alstott is going to outshine Marshall Faulk this season.
In auto drafts, I recommend going after RBs first, then WRs, then QB ... because the nature of the beast can cause some stupid drafting. In one of my autodrafts this year there were 10 QBs taken in the first round and Shaun Alexander fell into the 2nd round.
Figure I would jump in and ask a question regarding QB's and strategy.
I am picking #8 in a performance league that is 6pts for all TD's + yardage bonus. 1 pt/25 yards passing, 1 pt/10 yards for yardage for everyt. QB bonus kicks in at 250 (5 pts) and 5 bonus pts are awarded at each 50 yards thrown. RB bonus kicks in at 100 (5pts) and 5 pt bonus is given at each additional 25 yards gained. WR is same as RB.
Last year, Warner avg a little over 300 yards and 2 TD's per game. In this scoring system, that gives him approx 34 pts. Faulks overall numbers are around 38 pts.
I am getting the feeling their may be a run on QB's early in the draft. I am pretty much thinking the top 4 will be gone ( Warner, Garcia, Manning, Culpepper ).
If this is the case, do I immediately go after QB? Or do I go with the stud RB theory? I know I am going to need consistent QB pressure to keep alive during the regular season.
In leagues that give bonuses for performance, I think you have to be more of a gambler to compete. When your draft position favors a safe pick like Faulk or Warner, by all means grab that player. Those players will disappear quickly, however, and then you need to draft for upside.
Drew Bledsoe may get out there and fall on the ground and cry for his momma, but if he plays up to his potential he may push Warner's numbers. In that case, you have to like some of the talent around him too, especially Moulds (Bledsoe plays favorites and will throw a pass to whoever he trusts to catch it; if someone is dropping his passes, the playbook goes out the window) or Riersma (Bledsoe loves his tight end and will no doubt be seeking a surrogate for Ben Coates).
Players coming off injury, players with new teams, and rookies are all guys with huge potential, because they are generally drafted lower than they normally would have been if they'd had a big season last year. Obviously, some of these guys will bust; that's where the risk factor comes in. Players with new teams probably have the quickest upside, in that they are getting a new chance and the local opposition isn't prepared for their style of play. Some of the players who have found homes late, or have been resigned late, will also go later than they should in the draft. WR Freeman, for example, has been in most free agent pools because noone knew if he would play. Now that it's known, expect him to get drafted a bit, but people will still be leery of him. YOU can't afford to be ... you need to snag as much underrated talent as you can.
There's nothing wrong with taking some solid, average players, but even there try to work yourself a bit of advantage. The #18 RB facing one of the league's easiest schedules may be a better value than the #14 RB facing one of the toughest. I've been joking with my friends that E. Smith may break Payton's record in his first game, which is against the Houston Texans. It's absurd, but you can't rule out the advantage of a weak schedule.
Let me suggest an alternative WR strategy. By the 8th pick, the top 4-5 RB's are gone. There are several pick em RB's left who are very good but roughly about the same. You have 8 and 17. There is only one maybe 2 (depending what you think of Boston) WR's left. Take Harrison at 8. At least you have a category leader. Then take best RB left at 17. Statistically, the RB you get at 17 will probably be the same as at 8. Otherwise, you are just chasing everybody else hoping to find a diamond.