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Is this a good strategy?

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Postby Battlecreek Dragon » Thu Dec 14, 2006 12:18 am

I'm going to open up a big can of worms here.

While I agree with the general consensus that you should always start the player that you think will get you the most points, there is a concept known as hedging that has some applicability here.

We all make tough choices between two players that appear to be about even on paper and then go with some kind of other reasoning to tilt our decision. It may be strength of the opponent, home vs away, turf or grass, weather, who's hot or not, emotion, gut feeling, favorite color, karma, or anything else.

If it is not blatantly obvious which is the better start, there is some sound reasoning in hedging your bet (so to speak). Depending on your scoring system, it is unlikely that TO will have a huge game if Romo does not. However, scoring systems are usually designed to give WR's more points for receiving yards than QB's get for passing yards. So it is still possible for TO to outscore Romo.

If you feel you have statistical advantages at your other positions, and you honestly can't decide which QB is better, why not choose the hedge move in this case?
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Postby Yellowbird » Thu Dec 14, 2006 12:37 am

Are passing TDs worth less than 6 points? I might bench Romo if that were the case.

I also take a good long look at what my opponent has (I disagree with ignoring who your opponent is putting up) and if I feel I'm going to need an extra boost I'll take a few gambles (I've been known to bench studs for lesser players with better match-ups).

Earlier this season I benched Bledsoe because my opponent had T.O. and used Leinart in his 1st game against the Bears instead. T.O. outscored Bledsoe (because Romo came into the game and threw a TD pass to T.O. giving him 3 to Bledsoe's 2), and Leinart outscored Bledsoe because of overall yardage.

It was a big gamble, but it more than paid itself off. Look at what your opponent has and "hedge your bet" accordingly.
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Postby bobbing_headz » Thu Dec 14, 2006 12:39 am

I'd say it's a good strategy but only if you're not benching say Peyton or Brees. If you gotta make a tough decision than this is probably the deciding factor, especially when the guy's got a stud WR in TO. If it was someone crappy then I wouldn't bother. You just don't want Dallas to be shut out as QB is likely more important than WR in terms of scoring.
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Postby Infidel » Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:20 am

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:its not necessarily a bad strategy- as far as fantasy football goes, i say forget who ur opponant has, put in who u think will get the most points that week- that being said, if u have a significantly better team than him, start romo cuz if T.O. has a big game, so does romo and the rest of ur team can take it for u- if he has a much better team than u, start farve and hope GB has a big day while dallas does nothing on offense- if the teams are about the same, go with ur gut


There it is. If the rest of your team is better than his start Romo. If it isn't, start Farve.
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Postby benb18a » Thu Dec 14, 2006 3:14 pm

The scoring is pretty low for QBs here. It's a point for 50 passing yards, but turnovers are still -2. TDs are 6. But I have been winning no matter if I get -1 from my QB or not, and Favre has given me just that a few times this season, and Bledsoe has sucked it up also. My opponent is starting Brady, so I expect not only a rebound game from him, but for him to destroy the sorry Texans secondary. I guess this is the point where I have to gamble, because that will more than likely make or break me, especially if Harrison and others lay an egg like they have done often lately.

That is a good point about Hall being unproductive lately; he let that Brees hailmary go right through his hands, IIRC, and it's not like Romo has a shortage of weapons in case TO gets shut down. Which would be good for me anyway. After more thought, I am going with Romo; if my team goes down, I'm going down with it. :-b

I am fairly confident that such will not be the case. Thanks for the suggestions ;-D
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Postby eaglesrule » Thu Dec 14, 2006 3:23 pm

are you likely to win or lose?

If you are the underdog, I think its wiser to play the qb not throwing to your opponent.

If your QB has a big day, the other receiver is likely to cut into that.

If you are favored, you play the Qb your opponent has, because the likelihood of the receiver hainvg ahuge day without your qb at least having some success is small.

If underdog, change it up, because the receiver could stumble and your qb could be huge, giving your opponent no taste.

of course, only if the mathups are similar, and the talent similar, which I think it is in this case.
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Postby eaglesrule » Thu Dec 14, 2006 3:36 pm

you know, a lot of people go with the "most points" theory. Which has its merits most of the time.

However, it conveniently ignores the fact that in this instance you need "net" points and not "aggregate." Romo isn't scoring the most points, even if his total is higher than favre's if TO also has a big game. You can win despite that of course, but the other guy is cutting into your lead that way. This frees up his qb, and makes your wr produce because romo's net is less.

IT can backfire of course, and you usally should jsut amimize yourlineup. but there is a time and a place for this type of consideration.
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Postby benb18a » Thu Dec 14, 2006 4:57 pm

Here are the starting lineups for our teams:

Mine

Romo/Favre
SA, Green
Harrison, Driver, Burress
Crumpler
Wilkins
Miami

His

Brady
Rudi, MJD
TO, Colston, Berrian
Heap
Elam
STL

I figure he has a slight edge in QB, and I in defense. Our WRs are talented, but prone to give no points on any given week. RBs are even, TE is even. I just know that whoever I don't start will have a 300 yard 3 TD day, and the one I start will struggle :-[
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Postby maddog60 » Thu Dec 14, 2006 5:33 pm

benb18a wrote: I just know that whoever I don't start will have a 300 yard 3 TD day, and the one I start will struggle :-[


If that holds true, I'd definitely start Romo. Sure, you'd still hurt at QB, but TO would hurt too, and if Favre went off, Driver would definitely be a beneficiary. Of course, fate would not be that kind to present a silver lining to your apparent bad luck, right? ;-)
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Postby benb18a » Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:59 am

Well, in our retarded league scoring, they BOTH ended up with 15. Great. My QB and RB1 have outscored his WR by 9 whole points. And I think the remainder of his team is slightly stronger than mine.

Both my first round opponents have TO :-t
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