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Arguments for #4 Pick

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Postby Dawinner127 » Thu Feb 01, 2007 6:53 pm

Timbathia wrote:Yes, the high reception days were on account of St Louis being down (though he did have 9 against the 49ers when they were up all day).

In the last three games St Louis were even or up all day and SJax scored 8 TDs.

My point is that it appears from the season just gone, that SJax is a HUGE part of that offense when they are up, when they are down, and when they are behind.

The argument about whether he can get 90 receptions again will be tied to St Louis's record, but whether he does or not is by no means bad for Jackson's fantasy numbers.

He only had ONE game with under 20 combined touches (he had 14), and 5 games over 30 touches. Based on St Louis going 8-8, he gets the ball no matter what.

Seems like a win-win to me.

Being down and being behind is the same thing :-b

On topic, how is it not bad for Jackson's fantasy numbers? Jackson had 90 receptions for 806 yards with 3 TDs. In most leagues were you get 1 point per reception and 1 points per 10 yards recieving and 6 for a TD that is 188 fantasy points. Even if you don't count receptions as points, that is still 98 fantasy points. If his receptions goes down, that means his yards goes down, there for lowering his fantasy numbers. Not by a lot, but you wouldn't have recieved all 188 or 98 points from him if his receptions went down.
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Postby bobbing_headz » Thu Feb 01, 2007 7:19 pm

Dawinner127 wrote:
Timbathia wrote:Yes, the high reception days were on account of St Louis being down (though he did have 9 against the 49ers when they were up all day).

In the last three games St Louis were even or up all day and SJax scored 8 TDs.

My point is that it appears from the season just gone, that SJax is a HUGE part of that offense when they are up, when they are down, and when they are behind.

The argument about whether he can get 90 receptions again will be tied to St Louis's record, but whether he does or not is by no means bad for Jackson's fantasy numbers.

He only had ONE game with under 20 combined touches (he had 14), and 5 games over 30 touches. Based on St Louis going 8-8, he gets the ball no matter what.

Seems like a win-win to me.

Being down and being behind is the same thing :-b

On topic, how is it not bad for Jackson's fantasy numbers? Jackson had 90 receptions for 806 yards with 3 TDs. In most leagues were you get 1 point per reception and 1 points per 10 yards recieving and 6 for a TD that is 188 fantasy points. Even if you don't count receptions as points, that is still 98 fantasy points. If his receptions goes down, that means his yards goes down, there for lowering his fantasy numbers. Not by a lot, but you wouldn't have recieved all 188 or 98 points from him if his receptions went down.


True. His value will drop slightly in a PPR league. But, more carries will give him yards as well to offset the catches likely and the xtra rushing Tds will likely help offset the loss of catches. It really depends what league you have him in, PPR or not. Still, he's a great option in both.
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Postby Timbathia » Thu Feb 01, 2007 7:50 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:
Dawinner127 wrote:
Timbathia wrote:Yes, the high reception days were on account of St Louis being down (though he did have 9 against the 49ers when they were up all day).

In the last three games St Louis were even or up all day and SJax scored 8 TDs.

My point is that it appears from the season just gone, that SJax is a HUGE part of that offense when they are up, when they are down, and when they are behind.

The argument about whether he can get 90 receptions again will be tied to St Louis's record, but whether he does or not is by no means bad for Jackson's fantasy numbers.

He only had ONE game with under 20 combined touches (he had 14), and 5 games over 30 touches. Based on St Louis going 8-8, he gets the ball no matter what.

Seems like a win-win to me.

Being down and being behind is the same thing :-b

On topic, how is it not bad for Jackson's fantasy numbers? Jackson had 90 receptions for 806 yards with 3 TDs. In most leagues were you get 1 point per reception and 1 points per 10 yards recieving and 6 for a TD that is 188 fantasy points. Even if you don't count receptions as points, that is still 98 fantasy points. If his receptions goes down, that means his yards goes down, there for lowering his fantasy numbers. Not by a lot, but you wouldn't have recieved all 188 or 98 points from him if his receptions went down.


True. His value will drop slightly in a PPR league. But, more carries will give him yards as well to offset the catches likely and the xtra rushing Tds will likely help offset the loss of catches. It really depends what league you have him in, PPR or not. Still, he's a great option in both.


Exactly my point. Based on averages outside those 3 big reception games, he still gets 4 a game, so 60ish a season. Thats 30pts plus the yards in a ppr league, and I think it feasible for him to get 5 more TDs and extra rushing yards if St Louis suddenly become a dominant 11+ wins a season team.

Sorry, I meant when they are up, even and down. I think faster than my pointer finger types and am prone to that sort of thing.
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Postby Keyser_WV » Tue Feb 13, 2007 5:53 pm

Steven Jackson is a no brainer at #3 for me.

Listen to all the defensive guys at the pro bowl. When asked who they hated to see coming at them almost every one of them said Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson.

For all the Willie Parker supporters here is what Tomlin had to say.

As a Steeler fan I agree and like what Tomlin had to say. As a fantasy player I will be monitoring this situation as Parkers touches may drop some.

Mike Tomlin still believes the Steelers need to find a second back to complement Willie Parker, and that back could be on their roster. "We have potential men identified. ... I think just having the ability to be multiple, having the ability to attack defenses in different ways. If you look at New Orleans, Deuce McAllister is a power man, Reggie Bush is speed. If you look at New England, Corey Dillon is power, the rookie Laurence Maroney is speed. "You have to have the ability to have a change of pace offense, to attack people in different ways. Central, from a perimeter standpoint, having the ability to play both in the game at the same time and go two-back or one-back. It just gives the defense more things to work on. I think it's just part of today's NFL."


Sounds like he wants a power guy to share the load to me.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Feb 13, 2007 6:54 pm

Keyser_WV wrote:Steven Jackson is a no brainer at #3 for me.

Listen to all the defensive guys at the pro bowl. When asked who they hated to see coming at them almost every one of them said Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson.



Surprise, surprise they don't wanna see the two biggest guys comnig at them. Just like I'm sure you wouldn't want to see the Bus coming at you back in his day.

Did that make the Bus a better fantasy pick than Marshall Faulk though?
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Feb 13, 2007 6:57 pm

Interesting fact about Steven Jackson as well:

He scored 10 of his 16 TDs (60+%) in the last 4 games of the season, including 4 TDs (25%) in his final game.

Is this a positive thing or a negative thing? 2005 Larry Johnson-esque?


Jackson should be good for great yardage in 2007 due to his receptions, but I would much rather bank on a guy who I think is going to be consistent in the TD department. The Ram's/Bulger pass a LOT around the goalline. Always have, maybe they always will.

And SA has been a TD guy for a long time. Seattle has a great offense with a lot of depth. Holmgrem will absolutely feed his RB the rock at the goalline.

Can't really go wrong with either of them in the NFC West though.

Personally I prefer SA over SJ. The stats I posted earlier in this thread were less of an upside illustration and more of a consistency illustration. Give me the guy who has done it before, especially early in the 1st round.
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Postby Keyser_WV » Tue Feb 13, 2007 7:35 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Interesting fact about Steven Jackson as well:

He scored 10 of his 16 TDs (60+%) in the last 4 games of the season, including 4 TDs (25%) in his final game.

Is this a positive thing or a negative thing? 2005 Larry Johnson-esque?


Jackson should be good for great yardage in 2007 due to his receptions, but I would much rather bank on a guy who I think is going to be consistent in the TD department. The Ram's/Bulger pass a LOT around the goalline. Always have, maybe they always will.

And SA has been a TD guy for a long time. Seattle has a great offense with a lot of depth. Holmgrem will absolutely feed his RB the rock at the goalline.

Can't really go wrong with either of them in the NFC West though.

Personally I prefer SA over SJ. The stats I posted earlier in this thread were less of an upside illustration and more of a consistency illustration. Give me the guy who has done it before, especially early in the 1st round.


That's the thing S-Jax has done it before. Last season. Just because he hasn't had time to put up consistent numbers shouldn't be a negative.

Also, SA will be 30 next year and averaged 350 carries over the last 3 years. He seems like much more of a risk at #3 overall to me.

When it comes time, I'm up for some type of challenge/bet. I'll take S-Jax to outproduce SA in a standard scoring league next year.
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