Arguments for #4 Pick

[Timbathia]

Consistency is nice but SA is in a worse situation than previous years. Apart from the 28 TD year which I take as not his normal year, it is really no contest SJax over SA.

So is 2300 and 16 going to be SJax's 'normal' year?

Yardage wise possibly not, but then based on his increased TD totals in the second half of the year, he may well pick up the slack there. The use of him in the receiving game gives a HUGE advantage over SA, especially considering SA is dependent on an o-line that is worse that it used to be. Apart from 2 games SA was under 4ypc all season. I dont see many indicators that Seattle are going to be back to a dominant offense/run game next year.

[Dawinner127]

Yardage wise possibly not, but then based on his increased TD totals in the second half of the year, he may well pick up the slack there. The use of him in the receiving game gives a HUGE advantage over SA, especially considering SA is dependent on an o-line that is worse that it used to be. Apart from 2 games SA was under 4ypc all season. I dont see many indicators that Seattle are going to be back to a dominant offense/run game next year.

Even though Alexander's lack of O-Line or his necessasity (sp) to need a good O-Line (Hutch) he still ran with authority against Chicago in the Divisional Playoff Game and he ran well against Green Bay with 40 carries for 201 yards (5 YAC). In the Chicago game he had 26 carries for 108 yards (4.15 YAC).

[SwiperNoSwiping]

Consistency is nice but SA is in a worse situation than previous years. Apart from the 28 TD year which I take as not his normal year, it is really no contest SJax over SA.

So is 2300 and 16 going to be SJax's 'normal' year?

Yardage wise possibly not, but then based on his increased TD totals in the second half of the year, he may well pick up the slack there. The use of him in the receiving game gives a HUGE advantage over SA, especially considering SA is dependent on an o-line that is worse that it used to be. Apart from 2 games SA was under 4ypc all season. I dont see many indicators that Seattle are going to be back to a dominant offense/run game next year.

Yeah, I question the 90 catches too. That's a lot, but maybe it can be done again.

As far as Seattle, the whole offense was in disarray with several key components getting injured this year: Hass/SA/DJax/etc...So I am not contesting, I feel the whole offense underachieved. I am trying to establish what kind of rebound to expect from them and Alexander specifically, while tempering that with what might not be a repeatable year from SJax.

[Dawinner127]

I agree with Swiper. I do think that 90 catches may have been a lot, and I doubt he'll have that many again next year, but I do see S.Jax TD number's produce and go up.

[bobbing_headz]

I agree with Swiper. I do think that 90 catches may have been a lot, and I doubt he'll have that many again next year, but I do see S.Jax TD number's produce and go up.

I disagree. The new Linehan offense encourages more of this. Bulger loves throwing the checkdown pass to Jackson and until Holt or Bruce leave/get worse then defenses are gonna cover them downfield all day leaving s.jax open in the flats.

[SwiperNoSwiping]

I agree with Swiper. I do think that 90 catches may have been a lot, and I doubt he'll have that many again next year, but I do see S.Jax TD number's produce and go up.

I disagree. The new Linehan offense encourages more of this. Bulger loves throwing the checkdown pass to Jackson and until Holt or Bruce leave/get worse then defenses are gonna cover them downfield all day leaving s.jax open in the flats.

While I realize it encourages it, that's a ton of receptions to bank on for a RB year after year. That number could easily go down 30 receptions.

St Louis had to play from behind a lot and there were several games where Jackson got a ton of catches very late since that's what the defenses were giving them.

[Dawinner127]

While I realize it encourages it, that's a ton of receptions to bank on for a RB year after year. That number could easily go down 30 receptions.

St Louis had to play from behind a lot and there were several games where Jackson got a ton of catches very late since that's what the defenses were giving them.

Yup. In the two games were Jackson had 9 or more receptions (9, 10 and 13), it was during three games that StL was down and ended up losing.

When Jackson had 13, the Rams lost 31-17 to the Chiefs.
When Jackson had 10, the Rams lost 42-17 to the Bears.
When Jackson had 9, the Rams lost 34-20 to the Cardinals.

[steelerfan513]

While I realize it encourages it, that's a ton of receptions to bank on for a RB year after year. That number could easily go down 30 receptions.

St Louis had to play from behind a lot and there were several games where Jackson got a ton of catches very late since that's what the defenses were giving them.

Yup. In the two games were Jackson had 9 or more receptions (9, 10 and 13), it was during three games that StL was down and ended up losing.

When Jackson had 13, the Rams lost 31-17 to the Chiefs.
When Jackson had 10, the Rams lost 42-17 to the Bears.
When Jackson had 9, the Rams lost 34-20 to the Cardinals.

Good point. So basically, if St. Louis gets a better defense and isn't behind as much, S-Jax will get worse reception-wise. If they don't improve, he will stay about the same, probably still a little worse.

[joelamosobadiah]

While I realize it encourages it, that's a ton of receptions to bank on for a RB year after year. That number could easily go down 30 receptions.

St Louis had to play from behind a lot and there were several games where Jackson got a ton of catches very late since that's what the defenses were giving them.

Yup. In the two games were Jackson had 9 or more receptions (9, 10 and 13), it was during three games that StL was down and ended up losing.

When Jackson had 13, the Rams lost 31-17 to the Chiefs.
When Jackson had 10, the Rams lost 42-17 to the Bears.
When Jackson had 9, the Rams lost 34-20 to the Cardinals.

Very good analysis there.

[Timbathia]

Yes, the high reception days were on account of St Louis being down (though he did have 9 against the 49ers when they were up all day).

In the last three games St Louis were even or up all day and SJax scored 8 TDs.

My point is that it appears from the season just gone, that SJax is a HUGE part of that offense when they are up, when they are down, and when they are behind.

The argument about whether he can get 90 receptions again will be tied to St Louis's record, but whether he does or not is by no means bad for Jackson's fantasy numbers.

He only had ONE game with under 20 combined touches (he had 14), and 5 games over 30 touches. Based on St Louis going 8-8, he gets the ball no matter what.

Seems like a win-win to me.