Based on a recent thread that talked of using betting lines and over/unders as a means of estimating point productions, I whipped up an Excel file that does some calculations on this basis. The spreadsheet displays the Vegas-predicted scores and attempts to estimate the passing TD and rushing TD totals using my own (debateable) calculations. That method is:
a) deduct 4.5 points from each predicted score, based on me estimating all teams average 4.5 points in field goals, defensive, speical teams points per game. Obviously that's over-simplified, but whatever.
b) equally weights the ratios of a team's offensive rushing TDs/defenseve passing TDs and the opponents defensive rushing TDs/defensive passing TDs.
Meaning if a team is predicted by Vegas to score 24 points, the sheet deducts 4.5 points for field goals/safeties/whatever - leaving an expected 19.5 points from touchdowns - or 2.79 touchdowns. Now if that team has scored 4 rushing/8 passing TDs in the past (0.33 rushing TDS), and the opponent they face has given up 12 rushing/6 passing TDs (0.66 rushing TDs), it will assume an equal odds of rushing/passing TDs.
In other words, the spreadsheet would project the 24 point team to score 19.5 points in touchdowns, of that 1.39 passing TDs (2.79 * 0.5) and 1.39 rushing TDs (2.79 * 0.5).
Whether it's useful is up to debate, but I think it's interesting. The output is up at
The link to a zipped copy of the excel sheet is there as well. You're gonna need a decent knowledge of Excel to use the sheet itself however.