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Spread & over/under analysis

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Spread & over/under analysis

Postby stevebro » Thu Oct 16, 2003 6:39 pm

Hello.

Based on a recent thread that talked of using betting lines and over/unders as a means of estimating point productions, I whipped up an Excel file that does some calculations on this basis. The spreadsheet displays the Vegas-predicted scores and attempts to estimate the passing TD and rushing TD totals using my own (debateable) calculations. That method is:

a) deduct 4.5 points from each predicted score, based on me estimating all teams average 4.5 points in field goals, defensive, speical teams points per game. Obviously that's over-simplified, but whatever.

b) equally weights the ratios of a team's offensive rushing TDs/defenseve passing TDs and the opponents defensive rushing TDs/defensive passing TDs.

Meaning if a team is predicted by Vegas to score 24 points, the sheet deducts 4.5 points for field goals/safeties/whatever - leaving an expected 19.5 points from touchdowns - or 2.79 touchdowns. Now if that team has scored 4 rushing/8 passing TDs in the past (0.33 rushing TDS), and the opponent they face has given up 12 rushing/6 passing TDs (0.66 rushing TDs), it will assume an equal odds of rushing/passing TDs.

In other words, the spreadsheet would project the 24 point team to score 19.5 points in touchdowns, of that 1.39 passing TDs (2.79 * 0.5) and 1.39 rushing TDs (2.79 * 0.5).

Whether it's useful is up to debate, but I think it's interesting. The output is up at
http://www.napaandsonoma.com/ff/
The link to a zipped copy of the excel sheet is there as well. You're gonna need a decent knowledge of Excel to use the sheet itself however.
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Postby Homeless » Thu Oct 16, 2003 7:18 pm

Last season a friend of mine put something very similar together, he then went on to a 9 week winning spree using his system. He told me about it around week 6 of his streak, I got in, won for 3 weeks then for some reason it all went belly up and we started losing.

I will have to show him your system. ;-D
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Postby K-One » Thu Oct 16, 2003 7:39 pm

Geez thats taking my idea to another level. I think all that analysis would give me a headache! But good luck with it!
QB (1) - Plummer, Leftwich
RB (2) - Alexander, Dunn, Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Stephen Davis
WR (3) - Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Drew Bennett, Rod Smith, Jason Witten
K - Peterson
D - Carolina
(10 team league, pick #4)
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Re: Spread & over/under analysis

Postby culboarder » Thu Oct 16, 2003 8:08 pm

stevebro wrote:Hello.

Based on a recent thread that talked of using betting lines and over/unders as a means of estimating point productions, I whipped up an Excel file that does some calculations on this basis. The spreadsheet displays the Vegas-predicted scores and attempts to estimate the passing TD and rushing TD totals using my own (debateable) calculations. That method is:

a) deduct 4.5 points from each predicted score, based on me estimating all teams average 4.5 points in field goals, defensive, speical teams points per game. Obviously that's over-simplified, but whatever.

b) equally weights the ratios of a team's offensive rushing TDs/defenseve passing TDs and the opponents defensive rushing TDs/defensive passing TDs.

Meaning if a team is predicted by Vegas to score 24 points, the sheet deducts 4.5 points for field goals/safeties/whatever - leaving an expected 19.5 points from touchdowns - or 2.79 touchdowns. Now if that team has scored 4 rushing/8 passing TDs in the past (0.33 rushing TDS), and the opponent they face has given up 12 rushing/6 passing TDs (0.66 rushing TDs), it will assume an equal odds of rushing/passing TDs.

In other words, the spreadsheet would project the 24 point team to score 19.5 points in touchdowns, of that 1.39 passing TDs (2.79 * 0.5) and 1.39 rushing TDs (2.79 * 0.5).

Whether it's useful is up to debate, but I think it's interesting. The output is up at
http://www.napaandsonoma.com/ff/
The link to a zipped copy of the excel sheet is there as well. You're gonna need a decent knowledge of Excel to use the sheet itself however.


that seems like too much work and too much luck
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Thu Oct 16, 2003 9:31 pm

You lost me in step one.
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Re: Spread & over/under analysis

Postby Buckychudd » Thu Oct 16, 2003 10:24 pm

stevebro wrote:Hello.

Based on a recent thread that talked of using betting lines and over/unders as a means of estimating point productions, I whipped up an Excel file that does some calculations on this basis. The spreadsheet displays the Vegas-predicted scores and attempts to estimate the passing TD and rushing TD totals using my own (debateable) calculations. That method is:

a) deduct 4.5 points from each predicted score, based on me estimating all teams average 4.5 points in field goals, defensive, speical teams points per game. Obviously that's over-simplified, but whatever.

b) equally weights the ratios of a team's offensive rushing TDs/defenseve passing TDs and the opponents defensive rushing TDs/defensive passing TDs.

Meaning if a team is predicted by Vegas to score 24 points, the sheet deducts 4.5 points for field goals/safeties/whatever - leaving an expected 19.5 points from touchdowns - or 2.79 touchdowns. Now if that team has scored 4 rushing/8 passing TDs in the past (0.33 rushing TDS), and the opponent they face has given up 12 rushing/6 passing TDs (0.66 rushing TDs), it will assume an equal odds of rushing/passing TDs.

In other words, the spreadsheet would project the 24 point team to score 19.5 points in touchdowns, of that 1.39 passing TDs (2.79 * 0.5) and 1.39 rushing TDs (2.79 * 0.5).

Whether it's useful is up to debate, but I think it's interesting. The output is up at
http://www.napaandsonoma.com/ff/
The link to a zipped copy of the excel sheet is there as well. You're gonna need a decent knowledge of Excel to use the sheet itself however.

LOL, sounds like what I did with the matchups.

I took each players average yards and TDs, then deducted or increased them based on the opponents defensive proficiency. Posted the output for this week over on the Start/Sit Forum.

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/foru ... highlight=

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/foru ... highlight=

If you want to see the excel file, I can email it to you.....
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Postby SuperCafone » Thu Oct 16, 2003 10:27 pm

excellent perspective and excellent post, I lost you in how to do it but post every week your sheet Im gonna follow it this week, and see how it goes! keep it up!
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