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Running Backs in 2007 - Share your Thoughts....

Postby Plindsey88 » Sun Jan 28, 2007 11:51 am

Let's take a look at the Running Back position for 2007, based on what we know so far...

First, let's look at all the teams likely to be running RBBC in 2007:

1) New England
2) New York Jets
3) Indianapolis
4) Jacksonville
5) Tennessee
6) Denver
7) Dallas
8) Washington
9) Chicago
10) Green Bay
11) Atlanta
12) Carolina
13) New Orleans


And then we have these teams possibly running RBBC:

14) Baltimore
15) Cleveland
16) Houston
17) New York Giants


So that leaves 15 teams with a true feature back:

1) Buffalo - Willis McGahee
2) Miami - Ronnie Brown
3) Cincinnati - Rudi Johnson
4) Pittsburgh - Willie Parker
5) Kansas City - Larry Johnson
6) Oakland - LaMont Jordan
7) San Diego - LaDanian Tomlinson
8) Philadelphia - Brian Westbrook
9) Detroit - Kevin Jones
10) Minnesota - Chester Taylor
11) Tampa - Cadillac Williams
12) Arizona - Edgerrin James
13) San Francisco - Frank Gore
14) Seattle - Shaun Alexander
15) St. Louis - Steven Jackson



Anybody care to weigh in on this situation? Here are some questions I would like to get a consensus on:

1) Of the backs on the RBBC teams listed above, who looks the most promising? (rank 1-10 if possible)

2) What are your thoughts on the situations in New England, Washington, Chicago, and New Orleans - all teams with a pair of stud backs?

3) Of the aging RBBC backs with young studs behind them, who get bumped in '07? (Dillon, Taylor, Dunn, Deuce)

4) What happens in Baltimore and Green Bay - two teams with ancient backs, and no clear heir apparent?

5) What are your thoughts on Brandon Jacobs? Can he handle a full load? Will the Giants give him that chance?


Feel free to post any other questions you might feel need answering so others can weigh in on those as well....
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Postby MidwayMonsta » Sun Jan 28, 2007 12:19 pm

Well there's alot to choose from, but I'll take a stab at a few of them. The most promising RBBC situations to me are New England, Chicago, and possibly Denver. New England and Chicago are usually in alot of close games or protecting a big lead, which basically ensures of the fact that they always have the running game as an option. I think Dillon's time is nearing the end but I wouldn't be surprised to see him return. Jones in Chicago is a different story. As a Bears fan, I hope they hold onto but from a fantasy perspective I'd like to see them commit to one back and trade away the other. But New England and Chicago are both fairly good timeshares to buy into.

Denver used to be a really good situation when Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell had defined roles and both were solid fantasy options. But with both the Bells, it appears Shanny has no clue whose gonna be the guy each week. I still wish that they had used their 1st round pick on a guy like Maroney or DeAngelo Williams when they traded up. If the rumors continue to swirl that Tatum Bell is trade bait and they bring in someone that can rival the production of Portis in the good ole days or they give Mike Bell a shot at the starting gig, full-time I'd be interested. Right now though, I'm going to stay away.

I've already written a novel on Jacobs in another post, so I won't bore you retyping it. I think if the Giants give him the opportunity he could be solid. But I also think the Giants will bring in someone from either the draft or free agency to help pick up some of the slack from Tiki's departure.
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Re: Running Backs in 2007 - Share your Thoughts....

Postby biju » Sun Jan 28, 2007 3:00 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:Let's take a look at the Running Back position for 2007, based on what we know so far...

First, let's look at all the teams likely to be running RBBC in 2007:

1) New England
2) New York Jets
3) Indianapolis
4) Jacksonville
5) Tennessee
6) Denver
7) Dallas
8) Washington
9) Chicago
10) Green Bay
11) Atlanta
12) Carolina
13) New Orleans


And then we have these teams possibly running RBBC:

14) Baltimore
15) Cleveland
16) Houston
17) New York Giants


So that leaves 15 teams with a true feature back:

1) Buffalo - Willis McGahee
2) Miami - Ronnie Brown
3) Cincinnati - Rudi Johnson
4) Pittsburgh - Willie Parker
5) Kansas City - Larry Johnson
6) Oakland - LaMont Jordan
7) San Diego - LaDanian Tomlinson
8) Philadelphia - Brian Westbrook
9) Detroit - Kevin Jones
10) Minnesota - Chester Taylor
11) Tampa - Cadillac Williams
12) Arizona - Edgerrin James
13) San Francisco - Frank Gore
14) Seattle - Shaun Alexander
15) St. Louis - Steven Jackson



Anybody care to weigh in on this situation? Here are some questions I would like to get a consensus on:

1) Of the backs on the RBBC teams listed above, who looks the most promising? (rank 1-10 if possible)


1. New England - I don't think Dillon will be around next year and Maroney should flourish with the increased role.
2. Chicago - I feel that Chicago will try to move TJ as to get some value from him before he becomes a free agent next year.
3. Washington - While Betts is obviously a solid player I think his ability to come in during the middle of the year and essentially be "fresh" is part of the reason he did so well. I think this won't be much of a RBBC.
4. Indianapolis - I think with one year under his belt Addai will comtinue to see more carries and Rhodes (or his replacement if he goes elsewhere) will be used primarily as insurance.
5. New Orleans - Again, with Bush having more experience he started to turn it on toward the end of the year. This is the only one mentioned that I feel will continue to be a RBBC, but it will be effective and help both RBs instead of hurt them.

Other than those I don't really care for the situations of the rest (in terms of having a solid back from those teams).

Plindsey88 wrote:2) What are your thoughts on the situations in New England, Washington, Chicago, and New Orleans - all teams with a pair of stud backs?


As mentioned above, I think NE, CHI, and WAS will either remove one of the backs from the equation or use them sparingly (Betts). NO will continue to use the setup you saw this year.

Plindsey88 wrote:3) Of the aging RBBC backs with young studs behind them, who get bumped in '07? (Dillon, Taylor, Dunn, Deuce)


Corey Dillon, Fred Taylor (but in favor of Greg Jones; they'll continue to use MJD as they did this year), Thomas Jones, and I think Reuben Droughns will be replaced by the player they draft.

Plindsey88 wrote:4) What happens in Baltimore and Green Bay - two teams with ancient backs, and no clear heir apparent?


Jamal Lewis will be out of Baltimore this year and I think they will bring in someone else to compete with Musa Smith. Green Bay will continue with Ahman Green who had a decent year minus the injuries as they will need veteran leadership when Favre retires this year. Both could be front runners for Domanick Williams (Davis) IF Houston releases him in the offseason.

Plindsey88 wrote:5) What are your thoughts on Brandon Jacobs? Can he handle a full load? Will the Giants give him that chance?


I don't think the Giants are going to give him the chance, but if they do I think they'll regret that decision by mid-year. Jacobs is a bruiser for sure, but I think his running style lends itself to too many big hits and he'll wear down quickly. The Giants could fill Tiki's void really well with a healthy DD (I guess it's DW now) as he is a great pass catching back. I don't have the confidence in Jacobs enough to take him, as I just don't think he'll have the endurance.

Plindsey88 wrote:Feel free to post any other questions you might feel need answering so others can weigh in on those as well....


I think another interesting question would be in regards to the emerging running QBs (Vick, Young): how does this affect the value of the RBs in these schemes? For Dunn, he ran the ball well this year (not great) but when deep in the red zone they gave the ball to Vick to either pass it or run it in. I see a similar thing happening to Travis Henry/LenDale White too. Are there others in jeopardy as well?
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Postby SniperShot » Sun Jan 28, 2007 8:21 pm

A couple weeks after the Super Bowl I'm going to try and put together a big RB article going around the league looking at possible RBBC's ranking how horrible each RBBC is going to be etc.

Right now I'm pretty bogged down but when I get a couple of free days sometime next month I'll have some sweet stuff put together.

Good to see you around Plind.
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Re: Running Backs in 2007 - Share your Thoughts....

Postby Guru13 » Sun Jan 28, 2007 8:39 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:Let's take a look at the Running Back position for 2007, based on what we know so far...

First, let's look at all the teams likely to be running RBBC in 2007:

1) New England-yes, you will probably see a bit of an rbbc here, but with maroney taking like an 80-20 on the carries, dillon maybe there for just short yardage.
2) New York Jets-all I have to say is yuck, the only thing saving them is if they win the bid for michael turner, although washington showed some promise this year.
3) Indianapolis-I don't think you'll see an rbbc that much, I think rhodes gets most of the carries here.
4) Jacksonville-[/B]eh, not sure what to think here.[/B]
5) Tennessee-same as above, although henry did look real good this year, so I'm not sure what'll come of that.
6) Denver-it's mike shanahan, noone but him, and maybe not even him knows what will happen.
7) Dallas-I think, as many others probably do, that marion barber will get a whole lot more carries than he did this year and keep his goalline position.
8) Washington-depends on how healthy portis is, but I think you'll see probably like 80-20 in favor of portis.
9) Chicago-again, yuck, from a fantasy standpoint.
10) Green Bay-green outright, I don't consider this an rbbc...yet.
11) Atlanta-i dunno, I wouldn't touch the situation in a redraft league, but in a keeper or dynasty I'd be all over it. (norwood)
12) Carolina-I dunno about this one either, deangelo is a stud, but for once in his entire career foster stayed healthy the whole year, so it weighs heavily on that, and we just don't know what could happen with him.
13) New Orleans-Bush will get more rushes this year, and get just a few less catches, but he will get most of the touches between him and deuce I think, or well most people think.


And then we have these teams possibly running RBBC:

14) Baltimore
15) Cleveland
16) Houston
17) New York Giants


So that leaves 15 teams with a true feature back:

1) Buffalo - Willis McGahee
2) Miami - Ronnie Brown
3) Cincinnati - Rudi Johnson
4) Pittsburgh - Willie Parker
5) Kansas City - Larry Johnson
6) Oakland - LaMont Jordan
7) San Diego - LaDanian Tomlinson
8) Philadelphia - Brian Westbrook
9) Detroit - Kevin Jones
10) Minnesota - Chester Taylor
11) Tampa - Cadillac Williams
12) Arizona - Edgerrin James
13) San Francisco - Frank Gore
14) Seattle - Shaun Alexander
15) St. Louis - Steven Jackson



Anybody care to weigh in on this situation? Here are some questions I would like to get a consensus on:

1) Of the backs on the RBBC teams listed above, who looks the most promising? (rank 1-10 if possible) well I'm too tired to rank 1-10, but I'll give you my number 1: Marion Barber

2) What are your thoughts on the situations in New England, Washington, Chicago, and New Orleans - all teams with a pair of stud backs? bleh, too tired.

3) Of the aging RBBC backs with young studs behind them, who get bumped in '07? (Dillon, Taylor, Dunn, Deuce)Dillon and Deuce for sure, but dunn as a maybe, and what Taylor are you talking about?

4) What happens in Baltimore and Green Bay - two teams with ancient backs, and no clear heir apparent? Those "Ancient Backs" (I wouldn't go as far as Ancient, but anyhow), will continue to get the load and look for them to in 2 years or so, or in baltimores case, maybe this year, to draft a stud, but you don't know what'll happen in free agency by then.

5) What are your thoughts on Brandon Jacobs? Can he handle a full load? No Will the Giants give him that chance? yes, sadly.


Feel free to post any other questions you might feel need answering so others can weigh in on those as well....
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Re: Running Backs in 2007 - Share your Thoughts....

Postby deluxe_247 » Sun Jan 28, 2007 9:21 pm

biju wrote:Jamal Lewis will be out of Baltimore this year and I think they will bring in someone else to compete with Musa Smith.


what makes you so sure of that? billick loves jlew....i wouldnt be surprised to see him stay there. i think that there is a strong chance he restructures his contract so he can stay in baltimore...and id like to go on record now saying that musa smith cant handle the load of a fulltime back...he has zero durability.
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Postby skibrett15 » Sun Jan 28, 2007 9:24 pm

Heading into the NFL draft all these situations are only going to get worse. Don't be too surprised to see Marshawn Lynch or Adrian Peterson on a team that already has a "stud" RB. One or the other could end up creating another RBBC on a team that drafts high like Detroit or Buffalo or Oakland or Tampa or Pittsburgh.
Here's how I see some important situations that I think will change from last year. If I don't think it's gonna change I'm not gonna write anything...
(your calls will be taken in the order received)

New England: Expect to see a RBBC and don't expect to see Laurence Maroney leading the charge. He'll get about 40 percent, Faulk will get about 40 percent, and Corey Dillon will get 20 percent. The Patriots are going to use a lot of Kevin Faulk because he's versatile. Maroney wasn't a great success catching the ball and he dropped a bunch of easy ones.

NYJ: A RB from the draft could easily go here and win the job outright, but I expect Cedric Houston to be getting a large load in some games and a smaller load when they gameplan to pass the ball. Leon washington will be the 3rd down, passing game runner.

Indy: Addai will get 80 percent and the goaline touches. Rhodes did well vs. NE in the playoffs, but Addai helped them get there during the season. He's the better back and will be used much more.

Jacksonville: More of the same, Fred Taylor and MJD splitting. MJD has much more value though since he does more with each carry and seems to have goaline preference.

Tennessee: Travis Henry is the man. LenDale is the spell back. It's not like White is a better talent, they're the same style runners and Henry produces. C. Brown is likely out for good unless a new coach comes in and loves him.

Denver: Mike Bell starts and assumes the Mike Anderson Role. Tatum reverts to old Tatum bell (8-10 carries a game, borderline no. 3 guy)

Dallas: Barber will replace Tiki as the NFC east's best RB and pass catching back.

Washington: Portis will start, Betts will spell.

Chicago: Unless TJ is moved this offseason expect more of TJ starting, but Benson getting more like 40 percent as opposed to 25.

Green Bay: An even split between Vernand Morency (who quietly made some huge plays this year) and Ahman Green. Unless we draft Lynch. Also, Green is a FA and could move which would move Vernand up to the top and almost ensure that some sort of rookie is drafted.

Carolina: Same

Atlanta: Norwood gets about 40 percent to Dunn's 60.

New Orleans: Same

Baltimore: Talks of Jamal leaving town, but who are they gonna start? Musa Smith? Maybe a rookie moves in here if the Ravens trade up in the draft.

Cleveland: A great spot for Adrian Peterson, but if Romeo goes with defense I think Droughns could turn it around.

Houston: If AP slips to them it's a no brainer. Ahman Green is also a free agent. Could look to trade for someone like Jamal Lewis. Otherwise I think Dayne will win the camp battle.

NYG: Jacobs will get a good portion of carries, but they'll bring someone in to take at least some of the snaps (like 30 percent or so) Jacobs still gets the goaline touches. But he can't catch the ball.

Buffalo: Same unless they draft someone high
Miami: Expect the limiting of Ronnie Brown to stop. Saban liked to use Sammy Morris a little more than he should. THIS is the year that Brown is poised for a big one, not last year.
Cincy: Unless Perry can stay healthy, Rudi will succeed.
Pittsburgh: Najeh Davenport could play a larger role than some think, because Parker hasn't been the best pass-catcher and Davenport is quite a good one. Watch him around the goaline too, he was a late addition to this steeler team.
Oakland: No one can succeed behind this line. Even if LaMont stays healthy, it's all but pointless until they either get a much better line, or a marginally better line and a lot better passing game.
SD: same
KC: same
Philly: Westbrook will get the same number of touches, but look for Philly to run it more overall by including Buckhalter in their plans.
Detroit: Unless the line is improved, Kevin Jones will stay a no. 2 back in fantasy. Proved he can catch the ball so he's still a top player for their team. They'll try and run it more next year.
Minnesota: Same
Tampa: Watch out for Pittman in the passing game. Cadillac is a poor option until that team improves.
Arizona: Edge could probably improve on last years numbers with another year under his belt and a little line help.
SF: same, but probably someone will spell gore a little more often.
Seattle: SA reasserts himself
St. Louis: same.

1) RBBC backs:
1. Portis
2. Deuce
3. Addai
4. Barber
5. Jones-Drew
6. Henry
7. Mike Bell
8. Thomas Jones
9. Bush
10. Foster

the rest are about the same (Taylor, Dunn, Houston, Julius Jones, T. Bell, Maroney, A. Green) Then the rest of the backups (Betts, L. Washington, Rhodes, Benson, Morency, Deangelo)
2)NE does have a pair of stud backs, but Corey Dillon is not one of them. He has a role, but it's a change of pace and short yardage role. He tips their hand because he can't catch at all. Washington just signed betts real cheap long term, and I can't see them feeling forced to get him in the game. He's good, but not a game-breaker. He would have been a hot commodity in houston.
3) Dillon and Taylor already got bumped, Taylor gets outplayed, but he will still produce with the carries he gets. No way Deuce gets bumped, he's clearly the premeire back on that team and a premeire back in the league. Dunn could get bumped at the end of the year
4)A. Green and Jamal Lewis are not ancient by any means. Both are 29-30 and could have a good year. But they probably won't. I think we'll see both starting in 2007, but both will have a committee situation, green more than Lewis.
5) Since the giants went with Coughlin, Jacobs will get a bulk of the carries, but not all. He'll handle it fine, but he won't be that successful. Becoming a starter ensures a big drop in YPC.

Here's my question: what happens to Domanick Williams (davis) on Houston if they draft AP? If they don't? He's signed for a couple more years with Houston. If he's healthy I think he's pretty much a lock to start in that offense.
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Postby The Balanced Man » Sun Jan 28, 2007 9:38 pm

1) Of the backs on the RBBC teams listed above, who looks the most promising? (rank 1-10 if possible)

1) Jacksonville - MJD is a stud
2) New Orleans - Bush is a monster in PPR
3) Washington - Both will get plenty of work
4) Indianapolis- Addai takes the spotlight
5) New England- Dillon takes a back seat
6) Denver- Denver always runs well, still a gamble though
7) Dallas- One for TDs, one for yardage

After that it's a wash.

2) What are your thoughts on the situations in New England, Washington, Chicago, and New Orleans - all teams with a pair of stud backs?

NE- Dillon takes on a Bettis type role.
WAS- Both backs get work, but the yards by Betts keep Clinton healthy
CHI-One back is no longer there next year
NO- Bush in a PPR, Duece otherwise.

3) Of the aging RBBC backs with young studs behind them, who get bumped in '07? (Dillon, Taylor, Dunn, Deuce)

Dillon Taylor and Dunn

4) What happens in Baltimore and Green Bay - two teams with ancient backs, and no clear heir apparent?

Both Older backs keep thier job.

5) What are your thoughts on Brandon Jacobs? Can he handle a full load? Will the Giants give him that chance?

I think he can handle it. I've been high on him for a while. I think the Giants go with him and address the D.
Last edited by The Balanced Man on Sun Jan 28, 2007 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Running Backs in 2007 - Share your Thoughts....

Postby Warhawk » Sun Jan 28, 2007 9:41 pm

FantasyFutballGuru13 wrote:3) Indianapolis-I don't think you'll see an rbbc that much, I think rhodes gets most of the carries here.


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Re: Running Backs in 2007 - Share your Thoughts....

Postby biju » Sun Jan 28, 2007 9:53 pm

deluxe_247 wrote:
biju wrote:Jamal Lewis will be out of Baltimore this year and I think they will bring in someone else to compete with Musa Smith.


what makes you so sure of that? billick loves jlew....i wouldnt be surprised to see him stay there. i think that there is a strong chance he restructures his contract so he can stay in baltimore...and id like to go on record now saying that musa smith cant handle the load of a fulltime back...he has zero durability.


I agree that it will take a contract restructure to keep him there, but I believe he's due a pretty big roster bonus in the offseason which might make it hard or impossible to keep him based on his performance over the past two years.

You're also correct in that Musa Smith cannot be a full time back. But I do think they'll at least test the waters there if Lewis leaves.
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