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Running Backs in 2007 - Share your Thoughts....

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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Mon Jan 29, 2007 9:58 am

Felix the Cat wrote:I think Taylor at late second/early third and MJD at late third/early fourth is about right.


I liked your detailed analysis there on the Jags RB situation ;-D

I tend to disagree with the MJD projection there though. I think he goes much higher than that. Early mocks/rankings seem to be listing him between 9-15, especially in keeper-type leagues.

While that may be on the high end at this point, it just goes to show someone will be taking him very early in drafts.
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Postby bigGAME101 » Mon Jan 29, 2007 12:41 pm

As for the "RBBC's", this is how I see it:

1. New England - Dillon is owed a significant bonus (in addition to his slaray) this offseason, and while he looked good at times, he clearly showed signs of aging. I think that unless he restructures, he will be moved, possibly to a team like the Jets, where he could make a nice compliment to Washington. The problem in that particular case, obviously, is that the Jets are a division rival. Nonetheless, I don't think Dillon will be with NE come 2007.

2. New York Jets - I agree this will be an RBBC, unless the Jets luck out and are able to grab a guy like Michael Bush in the draft. If the Jets don't spend a high pick on an RB, they will likely bring in a vet, maybe Jamal Lewis or Ahman Green - this type of player whos contractual status is up in the air. Deuce McAllister is also an intriguing option, but his salary is too much for most teams to bear, and NO has a good thing going right now.

3. Indy - Addai is full-blown starter and does very well. For some reason I see him developing an injury bug (as he has been criticized of having), but I think he'll be the man. Top 15 pick in fantasy drafts.

4. Jacksonville - Drew provides value, but this will definately be an RBBC. Drew has got great overall ability, adn they will use him all over the field. That means that they will need to use either Taylor or Greg Jones (or someone else?) to be the 1 or 2 down back. I personally like Greg Jones as a comeback guy who could find success running opposite Drew next year. I love Taylor, but I will reserve my expectations, as age and injury are always a concern.

5. Tennessee - This year I like Henry to be the guy. I don't know what to think on LenDale, but believe that at some point he'll start biting into some carries. I think Henry makes a good 5th or 6th round selection, and Lendale is a good option in a dynasty. The problem here, of course, is that VY will always take away some yards running. So, Henry for 2007 (similar numbers as this year), and LenDale for down the road. Chris Brown will be out of TEN.

6. Denver - who knows. I'm not even going to begin to try and unravel this mystery. I can tell you this: I don't think it will be Mike Bell, it could be Tatum Bell, it will probably be someone else. Who that someone else is has yet to be determined. eep an eye on their offseason moves, because I think they will bring in a proven vet who can have some immediate success.

7. Dallas - I don't like Julius Jones to be the guy. I think Marion Barber is the better overall back, and hopefully their new HC will see this. Regardless, I see RBBC all the way ehre, probably more so than any other situation out there. Stay away, unless you are in a TD-heavy league, then Barber could be good value after round 5.

8. Washington - I see no RBBC here. Portis is the man. While Betts is good and should see some carries, this won't be the mess it is sounding like it will be right now. Portis should see an upside of 1400 yards and 10 TDs, while Betts could find himself in the 800 yards and 6 TD range. I think Washington will run a lot in '07, but I think it will be Portis who cashes in bigtime.

9. Chicago - This is an interesting situation. Jones is clearly a good fit for this offense, but Benson looks like he could be just as solid. I'm not one of those guys that will tell you "Benson is making so much money to ride the bench that Jones will be let go". The truth is the Bears would probably love to have both guys there. The other truth is that Jones will probably want to be paid like a feature back, and he can't get that in Chicago, not with Benson making enough for both of them. I think Jones will leave, and probably find a team where he does decent, but not spectacular. His style isn't suited to most offenses that are being instituted now, IMO. I think Benson will be a great value in round 4 this year.

10. GB - I think GB draft a back who will become the heir apparent to Ahman, who I think the pack will let walk. Whoever it is, they will have tremendous upside in a dynasty league, since this team is rebuilding and will likely rebuild around that back. A lot of mocks have Marshawn Lynch here, and I tend to agree - that is both where Lynch's value lies, and a need position for GB. Michael Bush is also an option, or Tony Hunt in round 2. I think that if you are in a dynasty , take the rookie back they draft. If in a redraft, take Ahman, but don't do so before round 6 or so.

11. Atlanta - This is a place that I'm very interested in. If Michael Vick actually leaves, then the value of the RB here improves drastically. Atlanta may or may not become a run-first team, but the number of yards available to the feature RB (if there is one) can only increase. I think Dunn is getting a little too old, but you can't argue with his production. Nonetheless, I think they will look for a back in free agency, especially if Vick is shipped out. Their O-line is solid, and Schaub, whom I think is vastly overrated, is still a better pure passer than Vick. The offense overall could be much diferent, but I think they will find one guy and stick with him. I don't think that guy is Norwood, even though I do think he will excel in a third-down role. Dunn could provide some good value again this year, but I would really pay a lot of attention to this team in the offseason. If Vick goes and they bring in an RB via free agency, you are looking at a huge sleeper (for the first week he's there anyway).

12. Carolina - To me this isn't very difficult. D. Foster has got the eternal injury bug, and D. Williams seemed to pick up some of those symptoms this year. Regardless, when you have a first-round rookie who is making significantly less than the "starting" tailback, but who has proven to be just as (if not more effective than) that "starter", the rookie will take over. I think Foster is in the last year of his contract. If that is true, he will look for an extension. If that is then true, Carolina will give him his walking papers. Either this year or next, Williams is the man IMO, and will provide some good value in round 5 or so.

13. New Orleans - What can I say here? The effectiveness of the Bush-McAllister combo doesn't lie. provided Deuce's salary doesn't induce any cap problems (which I can't see as feasible given that the cap is increasing by almost $7 mil), I think NO has the best 1-1 punch in the league. The offense was incredible, and there is no reason to change a good thing, especially when both had success. Again, as long as Deuce doesn't cause any "problems" with regard to role or pay, this team will remain atop the rushing charts (or very close). If you want my opinion as to the more successful back, then my answer is the same as this past year: Deuce in a non-PPR in round 4 as a lower caliber no.2 back or Flex; Bush in a PPR in late round 2 or early round 3 as a no.2 back. I think Bush will increase his numbers significantly, and I think Deuce will remain on par with his production this year.
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Postby joelamosobadiah » Mon Jan 29, 2007 12:55 pm

bigGAME101 wrote:7. Dallas - I don't like Julius Jones to be the guy. I think Marion Barber is the better overall back, and hopefully their new HC will see this. Regardless, I see RBBC all the way ehre, probably more so than any other situation out there. Stay away, unless you are in a TD-heavy league, then Barber could be good value after round 5.


I agree with this statement. I would take Barber OR Jones as a third back in a heart-beat. Not before I don't think. ;-D
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Re: Running Backs in 2007 - Share your Thoughts....

Postby Guru13 » Mon Jan 29, 2007 4:16 pm

Warhawk wrote:
FantasyFutballGuru13 wrote:3) Indianapolis-I don't think you'll see an rbbc that much, I think rhodes gets most of the carries here.


:-t
that was a total accident, I meant addai, seriously, that was a total screwup. :-B
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Postby knapplc » Mon Jan 29, 2007 4:30 pm

joelamosobadiah wrote:
bigGAME101 wrote:7. Dallas - I don't like Julius Jones to be the guy. I think Marion Barber is the better overall back, and hopefully their new HC will see this. Regardless, I see RBBC all the way ehre, probably more so than any other situation out there. Stay away, unless you are in a TD-heavy league, then Barber could be good value after round 5.


I agree with this statement. I would take Barber OR Jones as a third back in a heart-beat. Not before I don't think. ;-D

That's probably a pretty good idea. I doubt very much that Barber even comes close to the same TD output as he had in 2006. Many things lined up for Barber to amass 16 TDs that you can't count on again. I think he can get 10 TDs again next year, but I wouldn't count on any more than that.

Julius Jones is a decent RB, but with the loss of The Tuna I don’t see his role increasing. He was just a between-the-20s RB this year and I really see him renewing that role again next year.

Of the many RBBC out there, I think this is one of the top ones to avoid – both backs look appealing, but both could only amount to one back’s worth of production.
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Postby joelamosobadiah » Mon Jan 29, 2007 5:51 pm

knapplc wrote:
joelamosobadiah wrote:
bigGAME101 wrote:7. Dallas - I don't like Julius Jones to be the guy. I think Marion Barber is the better overall back, and hopefully their new HC will see this. Regardless, I see RBBC all the way ehre, probably more so than any other situation out there. Stay away, unless you are in a TD-heavy league, then Barber could be good value after round 5.


I agree with this statement. I would take Barber OR Jones as a third back in a heart-beat. Not before I don't think. ;-D

That's probably a pretty good idea. I doubt very much that Barber even comes close to the same TD output as he had in 2006. Many things lined up for Barber to amass 16 TDs that you can't count on again. I think he can get 10 TDs again next year, but I wouldn't count on any more than that.

Julius Jones is a decent RB, but with the loss of The Tuna I don’t see his role increasing. He was just a between-the-20s RB this year and I really see him renewing that role again next year.

Of the many RBBC out there, I think this is one of the top ones to avoid – both backs look appealing, but both could only amount to one back’s worth of production.


Yeah, I see them both evening out a bit more this year.

Barber's TD's go down but his yards/carries go up.
JJ's TD's go up, but his yards/carries go down. That's what I see happening.

Especially if Romo can prove he can hold onto the ball and run with it and then both of their TD looks will go down and Romo will be let loose a bit inside the 10. ;-D

Bottom line is it's good for the Cowboys, bad for fantasy. :-b
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Postby SniperShot » Mon Jan 29, 2007 6:53 pm

Overall it's going to be a much tougher year for quality RB's. Last year I can think of 15 or so solid guys 10-12 second tier men and a couple of sleeper studs like Gore.

This year you have just about 15 teams who will have a single featured RB. More and more RBBC means more and more question marks.

A clear cut Denver year would make me happy though. But that'll never happen.
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Brandon Jacobs: Carrying the "Max Load" in 2007

Postby The Lung » Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:00 am

From: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=rotowire-randonacobsarryingth&prov=rotowire&type=lgns

Brandon Jacobs: Carrying the "Max Load" in 2007

RotoWire.com Staff - RotoWire.com
Friday, March 2, 2007

Update: GM Jerry Reese said last week that Jacobs would "carry the max load for us," about 20 carries a game, Newsday reports. Reese is still looking for a veteran to carry 10 to 15 times a game and provide a change of pace.

Recommendation: "Every time we've given him a chance, he's been successful," team president John Mara said. "He's a confident guy and has a lot of pride in what he does. I think, as do the coaches, that in this day and age you need a two-back rotation." Now if the Giants sign Thomas Jones or Dom Rhodes, we expect them to stick to this plan. But if they were to trade for Willis McGahee, or Marshawn Lynch were to fall to them in the draft, this could change
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Re: Brandon Jacobs: Carrying the "Max Load" in 2007

Postby BlueBandit24 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 1:41 pm

The Lung wrote:From: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=rotowire-randonacobsarryingth&prov=rotowire&type=lgns

Brandon Jacobs: Carrying the "Max Load" in 2007

RotoWire.com Staff - RotoWire.com
Friday, March 2, 2007

Update: GM Jerry Reese said last week that Jacobs would "carry the max load for us," about 20 carries a game, Newsday reports. Reese is still looking for a veteran to carry 10 to 15 times a game and provide a change of pace.

Recommendation: "Every time we've given him a chance, he's been successful," team president John Mara said. "He's a confident guy and has a lot of pride in what he does. I think, as do the coaches, that in this day and age you need a two-back rotation." Now if the Giants sign Thomas Jones or Dom Rhodes, we expect them to stick to this plan. But if they were to trade for Willis McGahee, or Marshawn Lynch were to fall to them in the draft, this could change


I'd find it hard to believe that they would be able to get 2 runners 15+ touches a game, especially when some of their best weapons (Burress, Shockey) are in the passing game.

I'd like to see Jacobs at least get a shot to carry the load full-time, he has been effective in all roles and really blossomed as a pass catcher last year. If he piles on yardage along with his presumed chunk of TD's as a goalline back, he could be a fantasy stud.
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Postby The Lung » Fri Mar 02, 2007 3:14 pm

What do you guys think about Tatum Bell in Detroit?

Personally, I think Tatum Bell is exactly the kind of back that thrives in Martz's offense. He's fast, has good hands catching the ball, and field awareness. I would drop a 4th round pick on Bell in almost all formats, maybe 3rd round in points-per-reception leagues.
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