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Wes Welker to the Pats?

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Postby VaderFin » Mon Mar 05, 2007 7:18 pm

Thanks for throwing in the 7th rounder NE. Welker is a decent return guy and a #3 receiver. No way in hell will he ever be a #1, not that they expect that, and I don't think he is an every down #2 guy either. Slot guy? Third down guy? Definitely.
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Postby FF Newbie » Mon Mar 05, 2007 7:24 pm

Felix the Cat wrote:I'm looking for a breakout in the traditional WR sense. I realize he's broken out as a return man... I'm looking at something like 900 yards 8 TDs next year. I'm just not sure if he'd be able to achieve these numbers with the Pats.

Well, he already had 67 receptions last year in 15 games. That projects to 72 catches over a full 16 games. I wouldn't expect a lot more than that from him as a slot receiver/spot #2. He averaged just 10 yards/catch, so he'd have to have 90 catches to get to 900 yards. And if he starts running longer routes to get his ypc up, he won't catch as many balls and still won't get there.

Not to mention which, he's only scored 1 total touchdown (receiving and returning) in two full seasons. He's not a threat in the red zone. He'll be lucky to score 8 receiving touchdowns in his entire CAREER, much less next season. You did well to have him on your teams last year, but I definitely wouldn't expect that kind of an explosion in his numbers again next year, no matter where he's playing. Maybe it's a good thing he was traded so you don't reach on him before you should have.
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Postby robnestrick » Mon Mar 05, 2007 7:31 pm

Basically, the Patriots gave up a 7th rounder so that they could negotiate his contract instead of paying him the ludicrous amount that was the offer sheet.

I think Welker could be a nice #3 with return capabilities. I don't really care for this pickup though and you have to wonder which Patriot WR may be sent packing (Gafney, Caldwell). But if the Patriots are willing to pay Welker anywhere near his offer sheet, maybe they will pay for R.Moss :)
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Postby Felix the Cat » Mon Mar 05, 2007 11:47 pm

FF Newbie wrote:
Felix the Cat wrote:I'm looking for a breakout in the traditional WR sense. I realize he's broken out as a return man... I'm looking at something like 900 yards 8 TDs next year. I'm just not sure if he'd be able to achieve these numbers with the Pats.

Well, he already had 67 receptions last year in 15 games. That projects to 72 catches over a full 16 games. I wouldn't expect a lot more than that from him as a slot receiver/spot #2. He averaged just 10 yards/catch, so he'd have to have 90 catches to get to 900 yards. And if he starts running longer routes to get his ypc up, he won't catch as many balls and still won't get there.

Not to mention which, he's only scored 1 total touchdown (receiving and returning) in two full seasons. He's not a threat in the red zone. He'll be lucky to score 8 receiving touchdowns in his entire CAREER, much less next season. You did well to have him on your teams last year, but I definitely wouldn't expect that kind of an explosion in his numbers again next year, no matter where he's playing. Maybe it's a good thing he was traded so you don't reach on him before you should have.


Wow, talk about being condescending.

Thank you for the primer in basic fantasy football strategy/statistics. I'll be sure to let you know next time I need a lecture.

I had Welker pegged as a breakout candidate for three reasons:
1) Chris Chambers
2) Marty Booker
3) It's his third year and his stats from last season are within a certain range which I have found to be a statistically significant indicator of an increased probability of breaking out.
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Postby skibrett15 » Mon Mar 05, 2007 11:54 pm

well, now that he's with NE, I don't think he'll "break out" as some have already said. Even so, I think more TDs aren't out of the question. The pats already like to spread it out in the RZ and on the goaline, and might do that more without Dillon "the Rascal" as their sledgehammer. 5-6TDs, 800 yards and a mess of return yards.
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Postby maddog60 » Mon Mar 05, 2007 11:55 pm

evil_monkey wrote:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/w ... index.html

the deal has been done, no offer sheet, traded for 2nd and 7th round picks this year


Hmm, just a 7th round pick? What is the Pats 7th rounder, 6th-10th from the last draft pick?

I don't know about anyone else, but if I'm the Phins and someone makes a ridiculous offer I can't possibly match, only to turn around and offer me that insulting "compensation" if I save them the cap hell such overpaying offers engender, I would've told them to shove it, and let them live with the consequences of their offer.

Seriously, a 5th round pick or so I could understand Miami being agreeable and making the deal even more beneficial to both teams, but for one of last 10 picks in the draft? You have got to kidding?
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Postby Kilroy » Tue Mar 06, 2007 12:08 am

maddog60 wrote:
evil_monkey wrote:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/w ... index.html

the deal has been done, no offer sheet, traded for 2nd and 7th round picks this year


Hmm, just a 7th round pick? What is the Pats 7th rounder, 6th-10th from the last draft pick?

I don't know about anyone else, but if I'm the Phins and someone makes a ridiculous offer I can't possibly match, only to turn around and offer me that insulting "compensation" if I save them the cap hell such overpaying offers engender, I would've told them to shove it, and let them live with the consequences of their offer.

Seriously, a 5th round pick or so I could understand Miami being agreeable and making the deal even more beneficial to both teams, but for one of last 10 picks in the draft? You have got to kidding?


I agree. The Dolphins saved the Pats from the potential Cap consequences of an exorbitant offer for the equivalent of a 12-pack and a bag of Pork Rinds.

Not exactly what you'd expect from a division "rival".
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Postby APAP » Wed Mar 07, 2007 9:59 pm

I like the signing a lot. Strong, fast, tough, hard-nosed kid that has the type of ability to change your whole special teams play. Plus, it allows you to get Maroney the hell off kick return, as if that's an injury we need....Sure it's a lot of money, how much of that is guaranteed????
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Postby skibrett15 » Wed Mar 07, 2007 10:05 pm

Actually, now that it was a trade, not an offer sheet the contract will be renegotiated for something a little more fair on the Pats side. The thing to be upset about is that there are a ton of good WRs in the draft this year:
Calvin Johnson
Dwayne Jarrett
Ted Ginn
Sidney Rice
Dwaye Bowe
Robert Meachem
Steve Smith
Anthony Gonzalez

so why give up Draft Picks for mediocre players.
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Postby dgan » Thu Mar 08, 2007 3:33 am

Felix the Cat wrote:
FF Newbie wrote:
Felix the Cat wrote:I'm looking for a breakout in the traditional WR sense. I realize he's broken out as a return man... I'm looking at something like 900 yards 8 TDs next year. I'm just not sure if he'd be able to achieve these numbers with the Pats.

Well, he already had 67 receptions last year in 15 games. That projects to 72 catches over a full 16 games. I wouldn't expect a lot more than that from him as a slot receiver/spot #2. He averaged just 10 yards/catch, so he'd have to have 90 catches to get to 900 yards. And if he starts running longer routes to get his ypc up, he won't catch as many balls and still won't get there.

Not to mention which, he's only scored 1 total touchdown (receiving and returning) in two full seasons. He's not a threat in the red zone. He'll be lucky to score 8 receiving touchdowns in his entire CAREER, much less next season. You did well to have him on your teams last year, but I definitely wouldn't expect that kind of an explosion in his numbers again next year, no matter where he's playing. Maybe it's a good thing he was traded so you don't reach on him before you should have.


Wow, talk about being condescending.

Thank you for the primer in basic fantasy football strategy/statistics. I'll be sure to let you know next time I need a lecture.

I had Welker pegged as a breakout candidate for three reasons:
1) Chris Chambers
2) Marty Booker
3) It's his third year and his stats from last season are within a certain range which I have found to be a statistically significant indicator of an increased probability of breaking out.


Are you always so sensitive? That was not a condescending post at all. He disagreed with you and gave you his reasons why, explaining his argument thoroughly and politely. In fact, the first two points of your argument are confusing:

I had Welker pegged as a breakout candidate for three reasons:
1) Chris Chambers
2) Marty Booker


Well, that makes no sense at all. Both those receivers are better and more experienced than Welker is, and the Dolphins do not exactly have an explosive passing game. So to expect 3rd WR production similar to the Colts or Rams seems unrealistic barring injury to either of the aforementioned.

Only your third point makes some sense, but considering Welker's size, he is not going to be a premier receiver -- the type of developing prototypical receivers on which your stats are likely based. Only two guys come to mind - Steve Smith and Marvin Harrison, and Miami was not going to feature Welker in the way those guys are. So I would have expected a significant DECREASE in production rather than a bustout year.

Now that he is in New England, he could actually put up about 60+ catches again. But I'm not holding my breath either.
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