Top 40 Running Backs - Gregg Rosenthal, Rotoworld - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Top 40 Running Backs - Gregg Rosenthal, Rotoworld

Moderator: Football Moderators

Top 40 Running Backs - Gregg Rosenthal, Rotoworld

Postby The Lung » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:45 am

It's still ridiculously early for this kind of thing, but I'll take any fantasy football discussion at this point. :-D

From: http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=59&articleid=27909

Offseason Low Down

Top 40 Running Backs

This is the third start to this column. I could write about the remaining free agents available, but most readers don't care nearly as much about Bobby Engram, Marques Tuiasosopo, and Kawika Mitchell as I do. It's taken four years to come to this understanding.

Judging by emails, readers want rankings - especially running back rankings. Rankings for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Rotoworld.com could consist entirely of news and rankings, and I doubt anyone would care. Just don't tell my bosses.

After a wild two weeks of activity at running back, lets take a crack at a ridiculously early look at my top 40 ballcarriers. This is a rough draft. There are still a lot of moving parts out there like Chris Brown, Corey Dillon, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and all the rookies. A lot will change between now and August, but here's how Rotoworld sees the fantasy football breadwinners

Top 40 2007 Running Backs

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers- Each year, our magazine assigns a column about who the number one pick should be. This year, the column will about who the number two pick should be.

2. Steven Jackson, Rams – My gut says Frank Gore should be second because he's the closest thing to LaDainian Tomlinson. All things being equal, his talent would give him the spot. Life rarely makes things equal though. Gore plays for the 49ers, Jackson plays for the Rams. Jackson is the safer bet to hit 15 scores.

3. Frank Gore, 49ers- - The inconvenient truth for the three teams that drafted a running back in the top-five of the 2005 Draft (Miami, Chicago, Tampa Bay) is that the total package lasted until pick 65. Imagine how Carolina and Arizona feel about selecting Eric Shelton and J.J. Arrington in round two. Gore can be the NFL MVP one day, but the offense around him may not allow it yet.

4. Larry Johnson, Chiefs - The biggest question of the 2007 draft season is where to draft LJ. The probability of a physical breakdown after 416 carries is just too great to ignore. This ranking could get me in trouble, but history doesn't lie.

5. Brian Westbrook, Eagles - Westbrook takes a hit in leagues that don't award points-per-receptions, but he's simply one of the best players in football per-touch. Now that he can handle 300 of them, he's a solid first-round pick.

6. Willie Parker, Steelers - Still improving. Parker owners dodged a bullet when the Steelers' salary cap woes prevented them from upgrading Najeh Davenport.

7. Joseph Addai, Colts - If Indianapolis doesn't add true competition for Addai, he'll be among the safest picks in fantasy football. A quality committee partner would knock him down a round.

8. Rudi Johnson, Bengals - I'm running out of reasons to rank Rudi outside the top ten. His 3.8 yards-per-carry average is a concern, but Johnson should enjoy another big year before his decline hits.

9. Reggie Bush, Saints - Reggie in the second half of 2006: 1,013 total yards, 10 touchdowns, 52 catches. If he just keeps that pace, he's ranked too low here. He's a top-five pick in PPR leagues.

10. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins - Now is where the rankings get really hard. I truly believe this is the most closely bunched group of running backs in five years. After the top ten, there will be a lot of disagreement.

After watching tape of the 2006 season, I'm not giving up on Brown. Mike Mularkey and the Miami line ruined his season. The presence of Cam Cameron, Tomlinson's old coordinator, should help. If Ricky Williams returns, I won't be as optimistic.

11. Clinton Portis, Redskins - The shoulder injury could leave him fresh for the 2007 season, which is a plus. If Ladell Betts is traded, he'll move up half a round.

12. Laurence Maroney, Patriots – Get them while they are young. New England's propensity to spread the ball around at the goal-line could be the only thing holding him back.

13. Chester Taylor, Vikings - Like the entire Vikings organization, Taylor tastes vanilla. Unlike the rest of the Vikings offense, he's consistently productive.

14. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks - His breakdown last season may only be the beginning. Alexander will rack up fantasy points if he can stay healthy, but he'll probably disappoint Seahawks fans and get drafted too early.

15. Travis Henry, Broncos - Another guy who got a better job than he deserves. It wouldn't surprise me to see Denver draft a first-day pick, which would hurt Henry's ranking.

16. Willis McGahee, Ravens - I'm not convinced Baltimore made a good trade by acquiring McGahee, but he's going to pile up touches. Lack of backfield competition will be hard to find in 2007.

17. Brandon Jacobs, Giants - Not yet a complete player, but Reuben Droughns shouldn't provide much competition. The total yards could be lacking, but Jacobs is a good bet to score 12 or more times.

18. Carnell Williams, Bucs - Still young, talented, and has the job to himself. Could be a great RB2 value in the third round because he'll be ranked lower in most places.

19. Cedric Benson, Bears- Very difficult player to project. Great on paper, but the questions about his toughness and versatility still concern me. There's no way I'll own him if he stays ranked this low.

20. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars - A top-five pick if Fred Taylor had left. MoJo will have his day in the sun, but he's still a backup and Greg Jones may steal a few touchdowns.

21. LenDale White, Titans - Don't call him a sleeper. White could move up this list if the Titans fail to acquire significant more talent. He could move down if they draft a first-day running back.

22. Thomas Jones, Bears - The Jets run a perfect offense to take advantage of Jones' complete skills. He should be a solid value once again.

23. LaMont Jordan, Raiders- Great candidate for a bounceback year after Oakland's lost season. If he's close to his 2005 level, he'll dominate carries over Dominic Rhodes.

24. Edgerrin James, Cardinals - James is unlikely to reverse his decline, but he still runs hard and gets the touches. He'll slide down the list if Arizona adds another back on day one of the draft. The hire of Ken Whisenhunt is a major plus.

25. Deuce McAllister, Saints- Deuce showed up very well during tape review, and is another year removed from ACL surgery. His role can't increase, though, so 2006 was a best-case scenario.

26. Fred Taylor, Jaguars- I liked him better last year coming off a down campaign. It's possible he could start and get less touches than MoJo.

27. Marion Barber III, Cowboys - I admittedly have no clue what the Cowboys will do at running back. I suspect that will be the case in Week 3, which makes either player tough to start in fantasy leagues. For now, I'm putting off thinking hard though about where to rank them.

28. Julius Jones, Cowboys- He's reportedly on the trading block once again. A committee seems likely if he stays in Dallas.

29. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers - Coming off a strange, wildly uneven rookie season. Williams isn't likely to get the goal-line touches, but he's a better player than DeShaun Foster. If John Fox agrees, this ranking is too low.

30. Ahman Green, Texans - Last of the unquestioned starters, but Green's steep decline in the second-half last season was a red flag.

31. DeShaun Foster, Panthers - Hasn't finished higher than 24th at running back in four seasons. DeAngelo Williams could start sooner than later.

32. Kevin Jones, Lions- His foot injury is a mystery, and Detroit signed Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett. That doesn't bode well. Even if he's healthy enough to play in September, Jones will probably split carries in 2007.

33. Jamal Lewis, Browns - Value depends largely on whether Cleveland drafts Adrian Peterson. Lewis seems likely to split carries with a rookie regardless, it just might be a second-rounder.

34. Jerious Norwood, Falcons - Warrick Dunn's role is decreasing, but Atlanta's starter may not be on the roster yet. If the Falcons draft a bruiser, knock Norwood down the list.

35. Ladell Betts, Redskins - Rumors persist that the Broncos are still after him. If he stays in Washington, he's the best true backup in the league. Joe Gibbs doesn't seem likely to split the carries.

36. Warrick Dunn, Falcons - A scheme change is rough news for Dunn, already coming off January shoulder surgery. Don't bail a year too late. A high rookie pick in Atlanta will knock him off this list.

37. Vernand Morency, Packers - Dynasty leaguers may want to think about selling high on Morency now while he's the nominal starter in Green Bay. Best player available be damned, the Packers simply have to draft a running back high.

38. Leon Washington, Jets - Too bad Thomas Jones is so durable.

39. Michael Turner, Chargers - I'd rather draft Turner for the chance of Tomlinson getting hurt than accepting mediocrity by drafting Reuben Droughns and Dominic Rhodes.

40. Reuben Droughns - Droughns will compete for a larger role, but he'll probably wind up as a change-of-pace to Brandon Jacobs.

Just Missed: Tatum Bell, Dominic Rhodes, Anthony Thomas, Mike Bell, Ricky Williams, Corey Dillon


Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James are ranked shockingly low, imo. I think Tatum Bell should be ranked a lot higher too.
(~);}

Image

(~);}
The Lung
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9850
(Past Year: 61)
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Disgusted with Mocha Bean

Re: Top 40 Running Backs - Gregg Rosenthal, Rotoworld

Postby knapplc » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:05 am

The Lung wrote:Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James are ranked shockingly low, imo. I think Tatum Bell should be ranked a lot higher too.


Boy, are you not kidding! I kept looking for SA, and I kept going lower... and lower... and lower... Granted these are very early rankings, but to put SA out of the top ten is crazy. So is putting him behind Chester Taylor, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown and Westy. Westbrook especially has even worse injury concerns than SA, so to downgrade Alexander because of those concerns but not Westy is kind of odd. If you establish a set of criteria for one player, you have to use it for all or your rankings just become pure speculation.

I really like Frank Gore, but I think he needs another year of proof before I'd rank him over LJ.
Image
How 'bout them Huskers!
knapplc
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerGolden Eagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 18961
Joined: 27 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: It's an L, not an I

Postby Felix the Cat » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:26 am

Shaun Alexander is ranked behind Chester Taylor? :-t
Felix the Cat
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 886
Joined: 22 Jan 2007
Home Cafe: Football
Location: University of Florida, Gator Nation, USA

Re: Top 40 Running Backs - Gregg Rosenthal, Rotoworld

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:30 am

knapplc wrote:
The Lung wrote:Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James are ranked shockingly low, imo. I think Tatum Bell should be ranked a lot higher too.


Boy, are you not kidding! I kept looking for SA, and I kept going lower... and lower... and lower... Granted these are very early rankings, but to put SA out of the top ten is crazy. So is putting him behind Chester Taylor, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown and Westy. Westbrook especially has even worse injury concerns than SA, so to downgrade Alexander because of those concerns but not Westy is kind of odd. If you establish a set of criteria for one player, you have to use it for all or your rankings just become pure speculation.

I really like Frank Gore, but I think he needs another year of proof before I'd rank him over LJ.


i dont even like him all that much...i'd probably take him somewhere in the top 10, but i'm not drinking that Kool-Aid yet. he needs to find the endzone more...
Dan Lambskin
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 7054
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: being a fan of the worst franchise in the NFL

Postby deerayfan072 » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:32 am

WOW how is SA 14? 8-o :-?
Image
deerayfan072
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 18976
Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: On an Island

Postby killiansjmd » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:40 am

Also how does he have Lendale White ranked higher than guys like T.Jones???
Image
Thanks to Metroid for the sig!
killiansjmd
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly WinnerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 7929
Joined: 3 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS

Postby knapplc » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:43 am

I think the biggest thing to note here is that he uses the word "if" 16 times in these rankings. He's hedging his bets quite heavily.

Prior to the Draft and Preseason this kind of talk is nothing more than pure speculation. These lists mean nothing this early.
Image
How 'bout them Huskers!
knapplc
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerGolden Eagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 18961
Joined: 27 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: It's an L, not an I

Postby Dawinner127 » Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:06 am

I disagree with these rankings completely. Gore at 2? Go ahead, you can draft him at the two spot, I'll go ahead and take S.Jax or LJ.
A win next week and all is forgotten.
Dawinner127
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 6206
(Past Year: 70)
Joined: 15 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: New Jersey

Postby mattb47 » Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:34 am

It would seem that these rankings are very heavily weighted towards some players (who I would assume the author likes) definitely living up to their potential, while others (who I would assume he doesn't like as much) simply dropping off the map. Pretty much ignoring the risk that some players have and highlighting the risk for others....very inconsistent in his analysis and although these rankings are very early, I don't think they're really very good at all.

Alexander should be top 5 in my opinion, outside of the top 10 is just outrageous.

Even though many people are low on Edge, having him down at #24 behind players like Caddy, Jones-Drew, White, and Lamont Jordan is outrageous I think.

Thomas Jones at #22 now that he'll probably get a majority of the carries? Seems low to me.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby killiansjmd » Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:37 am

Thomas Jones at #22 now that he'll probably get a majority of the carries? Seems low to me.


Matt besides getting a majority of the carries, he's going to get the goal line carries as well for the Jets this year. I don't see them bringing in Leon Washington once they get the ball inside the 10 yard line.
Image
Thanks to Metroid for the sig!
killiansjmd
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly WinnerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 7929
Joined: 3 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS

Next

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 17:46 hours
(and 36 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact