I know the title really sucks but i've been thinking about an idea to help predict what will need to be drafted in order to win your league based on past stats of the winning fantasy team. I know they do something like this in roto baseball im just not sure if it would work for h2h football. I'm thinking that this might be applicable in an auction style draft for football as well. What do you think?
If i compiled year end stats from a bunch of fantasy leagues with the same settings and used those stats to determine how much of each statistic i would need to grab in the auction would it work? Is h2h football too volitale for this type of analysis?
I havent started collecting data yet but once i start getting a better idea of what i want to accomplish and how i can accomplish it i will hopefully be able to come up with something concrete enough to publish.
What are your intital thoughts or suggestions? Like i said at this point im just trying to get a feel if this idea is even plausible.
It took me a while to understand what you're trying to accomplish but I think that what you're gonna find with league winners from last season is common players.
The key to H2H fantasy football isn't statistics, its value. Guys like MJD, Gore, or even SJax last season (or Bush, Lee Evans, Addai, Ron Dayne that went hot at the right time) were the key to a lot of league winners.
The moral of FF is to get the best value from every pick and pick up. You're not going to find a strong correlation between overall statistics and league winners because of the nature of H2H playoffs.
If you really want to do this, look at regular season records. Last season you're sure to find a bunch of guys that had LT at the top in that category but atleast you'll get a better correlation to statistics and wins.
I have to absolutely agree. One of the teams in a league I'm in was a bottom feeder before this last year. FWP became a fantasy goldmine and MJD was a guy he picked up in the rookie/fa draft, pretty late. He rode those two horses to the playoofs.
Good decisions, getting good value, etc, will get you to the big show, but luck will have a huge affect. For example, I drafted SA, DD, and Jordan as my three RBs last year. On paper I had two top ten RBs and DD was a stud when he has been healthy.. all three bagged it for me.. was it poor planning.. with DD maybe, but who would have guessed the other two (ppr). So, draft well, get good value, and pray.... and you should do well...
The most important stat is fantasy points. The only thing worth calculating is fantasy point projections, and finding the optimum value in your draft by position.
Sometimes the most helpful information is looking at past drafting patterns in your leagues. How many RBs are drafted in the 2nd round? How many teams waited until the 4th round or later to draft a QB? How many receivers go in the first three rounds?
That is where I start my planning because it helps to determine where to find value.
Anybody's stats can fluctuate wildly from year to year...I know in baseball 3 year trends are used extensively. Football is a different animal though. People can get hurt more easily and/or regress much more quickly than in baseball. Then there's always the TD factor (the luckiest stat in fantasy football except for the elite fantasy studs).
Basically I'd say you look at the team's situation pursuiant to the position of the player (meaning look at the O-lines for RB and QB and the ability of the QB for WR's and TE) and the potential for a good return and go with it. 2nd year RB's are the worst for this...a few break out but a ton of them bust. WR's are completely unpredictable outside the top 10 or so.
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by GreatestShowOnEarth » Wed Mar 21, 2007 8:16 pm 
