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Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby Jimboozie » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:14 pm

mattb47 wrote:
Jimboozie wrote:LOL

So then you're willing to spend a 5th/6th round pick on him?


I spent that high a pick on him in the cafe league of champions league but that's a 16 team league so it was basically the equivalent of a 7th-8th round pick or so in other leagues. And I would take him there in leagues if he was available....7th or 8th round sounds about right for me. I'm not a huge fan of taking a QB too early so he's certainly a guy I'm targeting around that range.


OK. I can't argue too much against taking him in the 7th or 8th round. Still, I rather wait another round or so and grab either Romo or Vick (as long as he doesn't get suspended). I smell an offseason bet...who will be better this year: Romo or Kitna. You game, Matt?
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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby mattb47 » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:25 pm

Jimboozie wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
Jimboozie wrote:LOL

So then you're willing to spend a 5th/6th round pick on him?


I spent that high a pick on him in the cafe league of champions league but that's a 16 team league so it was basically the equivalent of a 7th-8th round pick or so in other leagues. And I would take him there in leagues if he was available....7th or 8th round sounds about right for me. I'm not a huge fan of taking a QB too early so he's certainly a guy I'm targeting around that range.


OK. I can't argue too much against taking him in the 7th or 8th round. Still, I rather wait another round or so and grab either Romo or Vick (as long as he doesn't get suspended). I smell an offseason bet...who will be better this year: Romo or Kitna. You game, Matt?


I'm game for that....how's this for the scoring system?

25 yds/pt passing
10 yds/pt rushing
6 pts/TD
-2 pts/INT

Pretty standard I think. What do you want the stakes to be?
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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby Jimboozie » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:38 pm

mattb47 wrote:
Jimboozie wrote:OK. I can't argue too much against taking him in the 7th or 8th round. Still, I rather wait another round or so and grab either Romo or Vick (as long as he doesn't get suspended). I smell an offseason bet...who will be better this year: Romo or Kitna. You game, Matt?


I'm game for that....how's this for the scoring system?

25 yds/pt passing
10 yds/pt rushing
6 pts/TD
-2 pts/INT

Pretty standard I think. What do you want the stakes to be?


Add -2 for lost fumbles and that will be good. ;-D

I'd say no-go on avatar bets since I like to reserve those for playoff games. How bout the person who loses has to write a message along the lines of "MattB47 totally owned me" or "Jimboozie is a QB Nostredamus, I am not" under his sig?
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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby mattb47 » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:41 pm

Jimboozie wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
Jimboozie wrote:OK. I can't argue too much against taking him in the 7th or 8th round. Still, I rather wait another round or so and grab either Romo or Vick (as long as he doesn't get suspended). I smell an offseason bet...who will be better this year: Romo or Kitna. You game, Matt?


I'm game for that....how's this for the scoring system?

25 yds/pt passing
10 yds/pt rushing
6 pts/TD
-2 pts/INT

Pretty standard I think. What do you want the stakes to be?


Add -2 for lost fumbles and that will be good. ;-D

I'd say no-go on avatar bets since I like to reserve those for playoff games. How bout the person who loses has to write a message along the lines of "MattB47 totally owned me" or "Jimboozie is a QB Nostredamus, I am not" under his sig?


Yea, I meant to include all turnovers as -2. That sounds fine to me with the note under the sig.
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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby PapaPark » Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:54 pm

Kitna will have the better year. ;-D
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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby Fantasy Man 27 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:15 am

Jimboozie wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
Jimboozie wrote:OK. I can't argue too much against taking him in the 7th or 8th round. Still, I rather wait another round or so and grab either Romo or Vick (as long as he doesn't get suspended). I smell an offseason bet...who will be better this year: Romo or Kitna. You game, Matt?


I'm game for that....how's this for the scoring system?

25 yds/pt passing
10 yds/pt rushing
6 pts/TD
-2 pts/INT

Pretty standard I think. What do you want the stakes to be?


Add -2 for lost fumbles and that will be good. ;-D

I'd say no-go on avatar bets since I like to reserve those for playoff games. How bout the person who loses has to write a message along the lines of "MattB47 totally owned me" or "Jimboozie is a QB Nostredamus, I am not" under his sig?


You're going to lose :-)
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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby The Lung » Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:47 am

From: http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=10021

The Case Against Kitna
As readers might imagine, our office is a breeding ground for fantasy football debate, and our discussions are getting more heated now that it's summer and the season creeping ever closer. One of the many divisive figures this pre-preseason is Lions quarterback Jon Kitna. Most of my colleagues would likely agree that the top five fantasy hurlers are Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Marc Bulger, possibly in that order.

After that handful, though, many of us are willing to wait and grab two passers from what often seems like a large tier of relatively equal values. Sure, we all have our favorites – like Donovan McNabb, Vince Young, or… Kitna. Your read that right. I believe some people, both in my office and around the fantasy football universe see Kitna as a top-eight talent. Written succinctly, their theories read something like this:

Kitna's 2006 (4,208 yards, 21 touchdowns)
Plus
Mike Martz
plus
Calvin Johnson
plus
an improved offensive line
equals
fantasy success

It's a nice formula. I've even started to accept the logic as we continue to work on the Fantasy Football Weekly magazines. However, I can only go so far with my Kitna ranking – maybe 12th or 13th amongst quarterbacks. Why? Let's look at some negative factors:

The Running Game: Part 1
As you likely recall, Kevin Jones suffered a serious foot injury last season and started only 12 games. In week 11, Jones carried the ball only four times before spraining his ankle. In week 14, Kevin ran nine times before suffering his season-ending ailment.

When Jones was healthy through the opening nine games, Kitna attempted 40 passes on three occasions. Over the final seven contests (only one of which Jones finished), the 34-year-old quarterback reached 40 throws in four contests and tossed the rock 38 times on two other Sundays. Two of his most prodigious efforts came in weeks 16 and 17 – when Jones was long gone and after the Lions were already headed towards a top-three pick. Kitna threw seven scores over those two games. Yes, one-third of his season touchdown total came in two care-free efforts, one of which didn't count in fantasy leagues.

The Running Game: Part 2
The Lions finished last in the NFL with 304 rushing attempts in 2006. The placement comes as little surprise, as we all know Martz's love of the pass is unrivaled. But Martz indulged his obsession to an unparalled degree last season.

Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, no team has attempted fewer running plays over a full season than the Lions did in 2006 – except for 22 of the 28 squads during the nine-game, strike-shortened 1982 campaign. Discounting that 1982 season, only two other teams since 1970 have tried fewer than 320 runs (1999 Browns, 1989 Falcons). The Browns were 2-14. The Falcons were 3-13. The Lions were 3-13.

Head coach Rod Marinelli and general manager Matt Millen might be advising Martz to run a little more this season. Just a guess. The acquisitions of Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett seem to help such a suggestion. Martz is still likely to throw as much as any O.C. in the league, but I seriously doubt Kitna is going to chuck the ball 596 times again. Or be as successful doing it…

The Attempts
Readers are likely accustomed to seeing articles detailing how running backs break down after a certain number of rushing attempts. Quarterbacks tend to hold up a better, but the numbers also suggest Kitna's digits could be headed for a downturn.

In the history of the NFL, 37 quarterbacks have thrown 570 or more passes in a single season. Three of them (Kitna, Brett Favre, Marc Bulger) performed in 2006 and a fourth (Fran Tarkenton) hung up his cleats after chucking the ball 572 times in 1978. Here are the stats from the pass-heavy campaigns and from the follow-up years of the other 33 quarterbacks:

Average Season: 15.9 games, 600.3 attempts, 358.4 completions, 59.7 percent, 4,183 yards, 26.6 touchdowns (1.7 per game), 19.0 interceptions

Average Next Year: 13.6 games, 466.7 attempts, 278.2 completions, 59.6 percent, 3,271 yards, 20.7 touchdowns (1.5 per game), 14.0 interceptions.

My research would need to dig deeper to figure out exactly why those 33 passers averaged less than 14 games the next year. I just know that it's rare for a quarterback to reach 570 passes in consecutive campaigns. In fact, that list only includes Favre, Warren Moon, Drew Bledsoe, and Dan Fouts. If we dial the pass attempt total back to 360, we can throw Peyton and Dan Marino into that mix.

By no means is Kitna doomed to fall short of 560 attempts in 2007, but, well, all six of those above names are either in the Hall of Fame or have built some good credentials for eventually being enshrined. I'm just saying…

The Finale
So, if you're still with me, let's pretend that Kitna is actually just an average NFL quarterback who played for a terrible, pass-happy team in 2006 and stumbled into some big digits thanks to his vast number of attempts. And let's say that a bolstered running back corps might mean that Kitna will only throw, say, 525 times in 2007. Still, you might say, what about the fact that the Lions have the best-looking rookie receiver since Randy Moss, an established stud in Roy Williams, and a third stable target in Mike Furrey?

I've heard and seen this stance before. The receivers make the quarterback, right? Do you recall when Tommy Maddox was set to light the fantasy world on fire in 2003 because he had a surprising 2002 season and because Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress were so good? Or maybe you recall drooling over Kerry Collins in August of 2005 because his 2004 was solid and because he was throwing to Moss, Jerry Porter, and Ronald Curry? In that same year, fantasy owners could barely contain their excitement over the potential of Kurt Warner throwing to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.

Do you remember how the resurgent Maddox, the heralded Collins, and the revitalized Warner did in those seasons? I'll let you do that bit of research.

Sure, it's possible that I'll end up missing the boat on a majestic, record-setting campaign out of Kitna. But if I don't draft a Big Five quarterback and don't land McNabb or Young (my second tier), I won't be reaching for Kitna later this summer. I'm perfectly content to wait another round or two and take my chances on any pair of the nine quarterbacks that basically comprise my third tier.
(~);}

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(~);}
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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby Azrael » Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:35 pm

I don't have time to get into this a great deal but it's easy to support your argument when you only provide the information that is beneficial to what you are trying to pitch.

1. In the first 9 games, Kitna averaged 36 pass attempts per game. In the last 7, he averaged 38. He didn't really throw that much more after Jones got hurt.

2. The Lions acquired Bell and Duckett because Jones is hurt, not because they will run more. Are those 2 guys you would look at if you wanted to run more? I guess they drafted Calvin Johnson because they want to run more too.

3. Yeah he does need to dig deeper into those other 33 passers to find out exactly what happened. Did they get hurt? Did they lose key players? Did they get replaced? Did their offensive philosophy change?

4. You can hardly compare the Lions to the Steelers and the Raiders. Maddox was successful in 2002 because the Steelers used the run to set up the pass and Maddox was a relatively unknown commodity. I love the Steelers but Hines and Plax were not as talented as Calvin and Roy. Also it is not their forte to pass like it is Martz'. While Collins played poorly for the Raiders he still managed 3,700yds and 20TDs, with Moss being dinged up and Curry blew out his ACL. Porter failed to pick up the slack. Collins line was pretty bad at pass protecting as well.

Kitna did have a good year for the Bengals 3 or 4 years ago so we know he is capable. If no one gets hurt he has the weapons to succeed.
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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby kimmer » Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:43 am

Yes, with martz and rookie CJ2 and Roy coming in to his own at the end of the year.
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Re: Will Jon Kitna be a QB1?

Postby eaglesrule » Tue Jul 10, 2007 12:42 pm

Only problem with him is he had like 30 turnovers. If there is a penalty, that's 60 points--10 less TDs from him. Granted, that's a ridiculously high rate, but still. That is a lot of moving backwards ...
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