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LT age question

Postby houstonherdfan » Sun Jun 10, 2007 1:02 am

This might actually be something good for the Great debates

LTY has 2 more seasons before he turns 30. As well all know the skills deminish quickly for NFL RB's when the hit 30 (a few exceptions). With the amount of punishment that LT has taken over the last 6 years. Averaged 341 carries each year, plus 66 receptions. that is over 400 touches every year. How long before he starts breaking down. Alos, If you got him when shoulf you trade him to get max value for him.
You could think of government workers like teenagers. You pay them an allowance, but do you get any work out them? They eat the food, put their feet on the furniture and complain loudly whenever they are unhappy.
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Re: LT age question

Postby FF Newbie » Sun Jun 10, 2007 3:00 am

I did a little looking into this a while back and found that most of the all-time elite backs had around 9 top-level seasons before they began to decline. That would leave LT 3 more. But LT is so stong and durable that I think he could last another 1-2 years beyond that. I'm predicting he has another 4-5 elite years left. In a keeper, I would keep him another 2-3 years and then trade him if you can get a great deal for him. Even then, if you can't get a very nice package of young players for him, just ride him until he wears out.
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Re: LT age question

Postby smackthefirst » Sun Jun 10, 2007 3:11 am

FF Newbie wrote:I did a little looking into this a while back and found that most of the all-time elite backs had around 9 top-level seasons before they began to decline. That would leave LT 3 more. But LT is so stong and durable that I think he could last another 1-2 years beyond that. I'm predicting he has another 4-5 elite years left. In a keeper, I would keep him another 2-3 years and then trade him if you can get a great deal for him. Even then, if you can't get a very nice package of young players for him, just ride him until he wears out.


I agree with this assessment. The only other thing to keep in mind is Turner. Of course if he stays in SD and continues to do well, he could start cutting into LT's numbers even more so as LT ages. I would feel comfortable with LT for at least 2 more years. 3 years from now I would let everyone know that LT is tradable but I would only take extremely good offers. Starting year 4 I would be actively looking to move him for the best offer.

Of course if anything drastically changes over the next couple of seasons, this rough time line could change drastically and quickly.
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Re: LT age question

Postby mrblitz » Sun Jun 10, 2007 8:41 am

It's hard to say if/when he will begin to breakdown. Curtis Martin led the league in rushing when he was what 32,33?
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Re: LT age question

Postby Big Blu » Sun Jun 10, 2007 9:24 am

I was recently offered Gore and a 1st rounder (12th overall) in a keep 6, 12 team league, so the 1st rounder is really a 7th rounder realistically.
There is no way I even consider trading LT this season, he is basically an untradable commodity, since his cost would totally destroy anothers owners team. LT"s value is too high.
But next season I actually may consider it,, even though many here are suggesting keep him at all costs for another 2-3-4 yrs, but it depends solely on what kind of keepers I will have at the RB pos. next season.
Say for instance I draft a Marshawn Lynch, or Peterson in this years draft, and if either looks extremely promising, and considering my league rules regarding keepers, I might field offers for LT if I can get a gold mine.
But like a said, I would only trade LT in certain leagues with certain permittable allowances in the keeper rules and pre draft trading rules.
LT is top shelf now, but the sale high strategy only works when a players value is really high, weve all seen top shelf plalyers value take a nose dive quickly, ie.. Randy Moss, so its tricky buisness when to cut ties and reap the rewards for an aging RB on the top of his game.
My best advice for LT owners is just keep a very keen eye focused on hime for the next couple seasons, and the very moment your gut tells you that theres something just not the same with LT,,, DO A DEAL!!!
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Re: LT age question

Postby mikus » Sun Jun 10, 2007 11:49 am

Is anyone else concerned that the coaching changes in San Diego are going to adversely affect LT's numbers this season? I do not know why, but I just do not get the same feeling about the guy under new management. Am I alone?
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Re: LT age question

Postby smackthefirst » Sun Jun 10, 2007 12:06 pm

mikus wrote:Is anyone else concerned that the coaching changes in San Diego are going to adversely affect LT's numbers this season? I do not know why, but I just do not get the same feeling about the guy under new management. Am I alone?


I'm sort of with you actually. I think NTurner, being a running style coach is a good thing, but only to a point. Obviously someone like Martz would knock LT's value a little. My concern with NTurner is that he will try to involve MTurner more so and that will cut into LT's numbers. And then couple that with the loss of Cameron and you can see why some questions will pop up. I think that LT will still be a top back for a few more years, but there is a part of me that wonders if he is ever going to be that "heads and tails above everyone else" back again.
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Re: LT age question

Postby Free Bagel » Sun Jun 10, 2007 12:40 pm

smackthefirst wrote:I agree with this assessment. The only other thing to keep in mind is Turner. Of course if he stays in SD and continues to do well, he could start cutting into LT's numbers even more so as LT ages. I would feel comfortable with LT for at least 2 more years. 3 years from now I would let everyone know that LT is tradable but I would only take extremely good offers. Starting year 4 I would be actively looking to move him for the best offer.

Of course if anything drastically changes over the next couple of seasons, this rough time line could change drastically and quickly.


Turner is an unrestricted FA at the end of the year I believe and as such, there is virtually no way the Chargers will retain him. Also, 4 years will be too late to trade LT for anything of value. If you hold him that long you may as well just ride him out till the end of his career, which is what I would do anyway.
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Re: LT age question

Postby TheRawDAWG » Sun Jun 10, 2007 1:34 pm

smackthefirst wrote:
mikus wrote:Is anyone else concerned that the coaching changes in San Diego are going to adversely affect LT's numbers this season? I do not know why, but I just do not get the same feeling about the guy under new management. Am I alone?


I'm sort of with you actually. I think NTurner, being a running style coach is a good thing, but only to a point. Obviously someone like Martz would knock LT's value a little. My concern with NTurner is that he will try to involve MTurner more so and that will cut into LT's numbers. And then couple that with the loss of Cameron and you can see why some questions will pop up. I think that LT will still be a top back for a few more years, but there is a part of me that wonders if he is ever going to be that "heads and tails above everyone else" back again.



Norv is a 1 back coach. I wouldn't think Turner will be cutting into the carries more than he has in the past. This is the best coach you could have hoped for if you're an LT owner. If a change had to be made that is. I see a problem with LT only because he will never come close to the numbers he put up last year again. It's not his fault or the coaching staffs fault. He just had one of those once in a career seasons last year. I see LT scoring 22 TDs MAX this year.Still great but not like what he did last year and it wont be HEADS and SHoulders above the next best RB.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Re: LT age question

Postby maddog60 » Sun Jun 10, 2007 11:31 pm

mikus wrote:Is anyone else concerned that the coaching changes in San Diego are going to adversely affect LT's numbers this season? I do not know why, but I just do not get the same feeling about the guy under new management. Am I alone?


When has Norv Turner ever been anything but a blessing for a fantasy RB?
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