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Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby sportsaddict » Mon Jun 11, 2007 2:59 pm

As a Rams fan I personally welcome the new offseason acquisitions. McMichael and Bennett should make a big difference in the passing game and hopefully we avoid that little variation of the west coast offense we tried last year :b

With a solid WR corps, a good pass catching TE, and even Brian Leonard coming in which the staff apparently really likes, are we going to see Jackson take a hit fantasy wise? Do these new acquisitions leap LJ or SA ahead of Jackson? I see a season along the lines of 1,400 rush yards, 600 rec yards and 17 overall touchdowns. Still an awesome season but not the 2,500 he said he wants. Does anyone think LJ can top that? Personally I think Alexander is a step under LJ and Jackson who I see about even.
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Re: Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby mrblitz » Mon Jun 11, 2007 3:02 pm

I understand your thinking. But personally, I think SJax will post similar numbers to
last year. I believe he may even top them. The guy is flat out on his game now. And
he has alot to offer any owners. ;D
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Re: Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby sportsaddict » Mon Jun 11, 2007 3:05 pm

mrblitz wrote:I understand your thinking. But personally, I think SJax will post similar numbers to
last year. I believe he may even top them. The guy is flat out on his game now. And
he has alot to offer any owners. ;D


Not looking at this from a fantasy perspective, I don't know if it would be such a good thing that he top last year's numbers... I think at times the Rams relied on him way too much, and it seemed like Bulger was using Jackson almost as the "easy way out" instead of looking downfield, etc. I'd like to see the Rams spread it around more, but still give Jackson his touches... Either way this is somewhat of a silly debate because in the end, Jackson's going to have his numbers ;D
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Re: Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby PMoneyTKE » Mon Jun 11, 2007 3:17 pm

If anything I think the addition of those guys will help him by opening up the field and taking some of the pressure off of his shoulders.
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Re: Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby Hubarooski » Mon Jun 11, 2007 3:56 pm

I think Jackson may be a little bit of a safer pick this year which is why he is rated above LJ. Mainly b/c there have been some major overhauls in KC and Jackson seems to be entering his prime in STL which has a great offense. I still think they will put up very similar #s.
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Re: Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby PapaPark » Mon Jun 11, 2007 5:11 pm

I don't see 90 receptions like last year but I do expect more touchdowns and more rushing yards.

;D
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Re: Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby treat24 » Mon Jun 11, 2007 5:36 pm

PapaPark wrote:I don't see 90 receptions like last year but I do expect more touchdowns and more rushing yards.

;D


i'm not even sure how much more than last year i see... similar tds and more rushing yards, less receptions and receiving yards...

people like to look at that last 4 or 5 game stint and think he's gonna be a machine... but LJ didn't turn into a 30 TD monster after his crazy 8 game stretch... there is definitely too much hype on SJax (if that's possible)... he will be a top 5 stud... but we like to get excited over players... not dissing him, I own him, i love him... I would draft him #2 overall... 2500 is ridiculous though... we'll see...
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Re: Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby dgan » Mon Jun 11, 2007 6:20 pm

Yeah, I don't know that people are THAT high on SJax. They are just really getting nervous about SA and LJ. SJax is just the safest pick among those three IMO.

Also, I like the offensive improvements of SanFran and Arizona in that division. None of the teams in that division play dominant defense, so it could be really high scoring divisional games. That bodes well for SJ and I see him putting up slightly better fantasy numbers. He didn't really have (from what I recall) any monster games that skewed his stats. He was just Mr. Reliable every week. If he puts together a few huge weeks, he could easily improve on last year's stats.

As far as the rest of the offense being better and more productive...if you can get ahead in games, you run the football (unless you're Mad Martz). So more 1st half scoring should mean more 3rd quarter and late game touches for SJax, which is when the defense is usually the most tired and soft.

I like SJax...at least better than the other options. Although I will say SA news has been really optimistic as of late, so I think he's closing that gap again. There could be no real consensus on who to take #2...you could be in 3 different leagues and see a different guy go in each one. Should be fun! ;D
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Re: Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby PapaPark » Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:45 pm

treat24 wrote:
PapaPark wrote:I don't see 90 receptions like last year but I do expect more touchdowns and more rushing yards.

;D


i'm not even sure how much more than last year i see... similar tds and more rushing yards, less receptions and receiving yards...

people like to look at that last 4 or 5 game stint and think he's gonna be a machine... but LJ didn't turn into a 30 TD monster after his crazy 8 game stretch... there is definitely too much hype on SJax (if that's possible)... he will be a top 5 stud... but we like to get excited over players... not dissing him, I own him, i love him... I would draft him #2 overall... 2500 is ridiculous though... we'll see...


I could agree with this - ;D
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Re: Worried about Steven Jackson?

Postby smackthefirst » Mon Jun 11, 2007 8:12 pm

treat24 wrote:
PapaPark wrote:I don't see 90 receptions like last year but I do expect more touchdowns and more rushing yards.

;D


i'm not even sure how much more than last year i see... similar tds and more rushing yards, less receptions and receiving yards...

people like to look at that last 4 or 5 game stint and think he's gonna be a machine... but LJ didn't turn into a 30 TD monster after his crazy 8 game stretch... there is definitely too much hype on SJax (if that's possible)... he will be a top 5 stud... but we like to get excited over players... not dissing him, I own him, i love him... I would draft him #2 overall... 2500 is ridiculous though... we'll see...


I just feel liking keeping the debate going and arguing with treat a little. ;)

The situations between LJ and SJax were different. LJ was coming in on more or less fresh legs against defenses that had already played half a season. Jackson played the whole season so he didn't have the "fresh legs" advantage. Secondly, KC declined from year 1 to year 2 with LJ whereas I would say StL is improving.

As for the last 4 games SJax had 136 yards and a TD against the Bears, 127 yards and 2 TDs against the Raiders, 252 yards and 2 TDs against the Redskins, and 166 yards and 4 TDs against the Vikings. The first thing everyone will notice is 3 of those 4 teams were some of the better D's in the league last year. The only one that wasn't, the Redskins, also got torched for 388 yards passing (of which 102 went to SJax on 6 catches). What I'm saying is those games showed more than just stats. Being able to do that against those D's shows a huge amount of talent. One game could be considered luck, but 3 is more than luck. Also the last three games were the only games SJax had at least 25 carries. So he's not being run into the ground to get his stats either.

Other random odd things, SJax only had 6 100 yard games and only 3 games with 25 or more carries. He averaged 21.6 carries per game, 95.5 rushing yards per game, 5.6 catches per game, 50 yards receiving per game, and only 1 TD per game. None of those numbers jump out at you at all. He doesn't average 25 carries, 100 yards, or more than 1 TD per game. Even if you think his receiving stats decline, which I don't see coming, there's no reason to think his rushing stats wouldn't increase. Last year he totaled 2334 total yards and I don't see any reason why you would think that he couldn't do it again (or more).

And yes, I was one of the ones who originally said, "There's no way he gets 2500 total yards;" but once I looked at the game by game breakdown, as well as what StL has done this off season, I saw that the potential is there. And after looking at everything I can honestly say that I now have SJax closer to LT (but not that close before I get attacked) than I have LJ close to SJax.
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