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Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby Jimboozie » Sun Jun 24, 2007 9:48 pm

I received this in an email newsletter from MockDraftCentral.com and thought it was worth sharing.

The Pessimistic View: AFC Running Backs
by Geoffrey Stein



Maybe it`s the Cubs fan in me. Maybe I`m just a miserable person. Either way, participating in various magazine drafts over the past few weeks has led me to one conclusion: The fantasy football talent pool is horrible. In some cases, it`s the player`s skills -- or lack thereof. In some cases, it`s the player`s situation. In some cases, it`s both. For the next few weeks, I`ll go through and point out all of the relevant negatives that linger in my mind about every starting NFL quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Without further ado, here is the pessimist view on AFC running backs:

AFC East

Ronnie Brown: Stop me if this sounds familiar: With Ricky Williams suspended and a new quarterback, Ronnie Brown has the potential to put up first-round value.... Brown has a great deal of talent, but he`s running behind an offensive line that is old, and well, not very good.... It`s very easy to get excited about Brown`s potential, but too much remains the same in Miami -- I`ll pass at his current draft levels.

Thomas Jones: There are differing opinions on whether Leon Washington can be a full-time back at the NFL level, but one thing is clear: he deserves carries. The question ultimately becomes: how many carries? Despite sharing time with Cedric Benson, Jones averaged 19 carries a game last season; a number that is likely to shrink this coming season as a member of the Jets.... Any member of a running back by committee is scary; especially when they are sharing time with a young back coming off a successful rookie season.

Marshawn Lynch: He`s a rookie. That right there is enough to scare off many.... Anthony Thomas is still around, and has a history with head coach Dick Jauron -- I would be surprised if Thomas didn`t receive carries.

Laurence Maroney: The off-season shoulder surgery is a bit scary; especially if the rehab costs Maroney training camp time. Surprisingly, the Patriots and Bill Belichick have remained tight-lipped on Maroney`s injury, so at this point, he`s a small gamble.

AFC North

Rudi Johnson: There aren`t many negatives here: what you see is what you get from the ultra-consistent Rudi Johnson.... I don`t buy into any argument that can be made about Kenny Irons or Chris Perry behind him; been there, heard that, didn`t happen.... He`s pretty good.

Jamal Lewis: Drafting Jamal Lewis always comes along with the `did I really just draft Jamal Lewis` feeling in the pit of your stomach; and take it from me, it`s not a good feeling.... While he did rush for 1132 yards and nine touchdowns last season, Lewis` 3.6 yards per carry and two (out of 16) 100-plus yard games are a better indicator of his overall performance.... The move to Cleveland is lateral, at best, as the Browns have many of the same offensive issues that plagued the Ravens` offense during Lewis` final years with the team.

Willis McGahee: McGahee`s 3.8 yard-per-carry average and two (out of 14) games with 100-plus yards are worrisome to me.... The question ultimately becomes: How much of that had to do with the players surrounding him? Particularly the Bills` offensive line, which was nothing short of awful for each of McGahee`s three seasons with the team. The Baltimore line is better, but still has question marks with the aging Jonathan Ogden and rookie Ben Grubbs replacing Edwin Mulitalo.... McGahee isn`t the sure thing that many people are making him out to be.

Willie Parker: I like Willie, he`s a good back, but it`s hard for me to look at him as a top ten draft pick.... The addition of Kevan Barlow could hurt Parker in the red zone -- where he ran for 12 of his 13 touchdowns. If Barlow becomes the short-yardage, inside the 10-yard line back, Parker`s touchdowns could take a significant hit.

AFC South

Joseph Addai: Addai`s knee injuries in high school and college are a tiny bit worrisome, but nothing that would keep me from drafting him.... He`s pretty good.

Ahman Green: Just not a fan of Green at his current draft levels as a late-third/early-fourth round pick.... It`s been speculated that Ron Dayne could receive the short-yardage carries; if that is indeed true, Green`s fantasy value decreases greatly.... I`ll pass, thank you.

Fred Taylor: The potential negatives here are quite obvious: Maurice Jones-Drew and the always-present injury concerns. They pretty much explain themselves -- no need to get too in-depth.

LenDale White: Three words: Meat Lover`s pizza.

AFC West

Travis Henry: Mike Shanahan + running backs = A fantasy player`s nightmare.... I can see it now: training camp rumors that Selvin Young is in the race to receive goal line carries. When it happens, I called it.

Larry Johnson: The offensive line -- the key to the Priest and LJ glory days -- is falling apart/retiring at an alarming rate. The holes aren`t going to be as large or as frequent.... With Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle at quarterback, teams are going to stack the box against Johnson, and force him into nine and ten man looks. There isn`t going to be a lot of room for LJ to run.... He really, really scares me.

LaMont Jordan: There isn`t enough energy in my body or typing action in my fingers to list all of the negatives surrounding LaMont Jordan.

LaDainian Tomlinson: He`s pretty good.

Negative Nelly, out.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby Jimboozie » Sun Jun 24, 2007 9:48 pm

The Pessimistic View: NFC Running Backs
by Geoffrey Stein



Maybe it`s the Cubs fan in me. Maybe I`m just a miserable person. Either way, participating in various magazine drafts over the past few weeks has led me to one conclusion: The fantasy football talent pool is horrible. In some cases, it`s the player`s skills -- or lack thereof. In some cases, it`s the player`s situation. In some cases, it`s both. For the next few weeks, I`ll go through and point out all of the relevant negatives that linger in my mind about every starting NFL quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Without further ado, here is the pessimist view on NFC running backs:

NFC East

Brandon Jacobs: Sure, he excelled as a short-yardage battering ram, but I question whether or not Jacobs has what it takes to be an every down back in the NFL.... My main worry is injury: As a full-time back with a punishing running style, can Jacobs` body hold up over an entire 16-game season? In 2006, his yards-per-carry decreased every month; starting at 7.0 YPC in September, falling to 4.3 YPC in October, dropping to 3.9 YPC in November, and ending at 3.5 YPC in December.... With veteran Reuben Droughns in the wings, it`s very likely that the Giants` running back situation could become a fantasy player`s nightmare.

Julius Jones: Jones is a member of a running back by committee that has more questions than answers -- what could possibly go wrong?

Clinton Portis: Reports of patella tendonitis in the knee only adds to the list of reasons why I wouldn`t select Portis in the second round -- his current ADP -- of a fantasy football draft. The tendonitis along with the surgically repaired shoulder is more than enough to keep me away -- he`s clearly a health risk.... Quietly, Portis` backup, Ladell Betts, put up stellar numbers in 2006; racking up more than 1500 total yards and finding the end zone five times. Off-season reports have Redskins` coach Joe Gibbs wanting to get Betts more carries, even if Portis is healthy.... At this point, I avoid Portis at all costs.

Brian Westbrook: The only negative with Westbrook is his ability to stay healthy; it seems like the guy is questionable every week. The conflict on whether or not to start a questionable Westbrook has taken many years off the lives of fantasy owners: It takes a strong heart and solid hair-line to have Westbrook on a fantasy team. Surgeon General Warning: Draft at your own risk.

NFC North

Cedric Benson: Thomas Jones is gone, it`s time for Benson to put up, and more importantly, shut up.... During his time on the field, Benson has put up decent numbers, but hasn`t done anything overly impressive. He may thrive as the full-time back, but at this point, nothing that I`ve seen from Benson makes him worthy of a second round selection.

Kevin Jones: The negatives are pretty obvious, with the recovery from Lisfranc surgery being the most worrisome.... If he`s ready, he`s going to be pretty good. The question: Is he going to be ready?

Vernand Morency: To quote iconic television legend Butthead: `If you don`t know, I`m not going to tell you.`

Chester Taylor: Again, the negatives here are obvious: Adrian Peterson and Tarvaris Jackson.... Peterson, the Vikings` first round draft pick, will get a good chunk of carries and undoubtedly cut into Taylor`s 1216 yards and six touchdowns of a season ago.... Jackson, the Vikings inexperienced starting quarterback, will lead one of the league`s worst passing offenses. Expect Taylor and Peterson to be running into defensive formations with both safeties in the box.

NFC South

Warrick Dunn: Stealing from my Julius Jones blurb: (Dunn) is a member of a running back by committee that has more questions than answers -- what could possibly go wrong?

Deuce McAllister: McAllister is a member of one of the rare running backs by committee that has actually worked.... His ADP is a bit high for my liking, but I can`t think of any legit negatives.

Cadillac Williams: Need a negative? Review his 2006 season.

DeAngelo Williams: Stealing from my Julius Jones/Warrick Dunn blurb: (Williams) is a member of a running back by committee that has more questions than answers -- what could possibly go wrong?

NFC West:

Shaun Alexander: Last season, Alexander wasn`t as good for three reasons: 1) The foot injury; 2) The loss of Steve Hutchinson; and 3) The new contract.... The ultimate question becomes: What percentage did each play in Alexander`s struggles? Obviously, his chances to rebound are much better if option one -- the foot injury -- was the main culprit.

Frank Gore: The fumble issues around the goal line scare the tar out of me. What good is a fantasy running back -- particularly the fifth overall selection -- if he`s going to be pulled in goal line situations?

Edgerrin James: Stealing from my Cadillac Williams blurb: Need a negative? Review his 2006 season.

Steven Jackson: He`s pretty good.

Negative Nelly, out.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby eagles21 » Sun Jun 24, 2007 9:57 pm

LenDale White: Three words: Meat Lover`s pizza.


:-b :-b :-b

But seriously, very good read, even though after reading this, I'm pretty much scared to death of drafting any running back besides:

Tomlinson
Steven Jackson
Rudi Johnson
Addai

:-D ;-7
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby mystykoekaki » Mon Jun 25, 2007 2:00 am

eagles21 wrote:
LenDale White: Three words: Meat Lover`s pizza.


:-b :-b :-b

But seriously, very good read, even though after reading this, I'm pretty much scared to death of drafting any running back besides:

Tomlinson
Steven Jackson
Rudi Johnson
Addai

:-D ;-7


Exactly.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby Geoffrey Stein » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:23 am

mystykoekaki wrote:
eagles21 wrote:
LenDale White: Three words: Meat Lover`s pizza.


:-b :-b :-b

But seriously, very good read, even though after reading this, I'm pretty much scared to death of drafting any running back besides:

Tomlinson
Steven Jackson
Rudi Johnson
Addai

:-D ;-7


Exactly.


First off: Thanks for the kind words. It's always nice to know that people enjoy the thoughts that are transfered from my brain to my fingers to the MDC keyboard to your computer screen.

Honestly, when it comes to the 2007 fantasy football season, I am scared to death of any running back not named Tomlinson, Jackson, Rudi, or Addai. I am currently working on an article -- that I hope to get out this week -- about how important it is not to mis-fire on a first round selection. Getting "LaMonted" or "Cadillaced" early really puts your team behind the eight ball, and this season, I don't see any late-round or free agent Barbers, Jones-Drews, or Colstons that will be able to offset the negatives of a failed first round pick.

So, my argument becomes: Draft the safest, surest thing early.

Whenever I write something, I try to avoid the "this is what you have to do to win" mentality that a lot of the writers in the industry use. Instead, I like to offer various pieces of legit information and let the reader decide on their own: I feel my Pessimistic View articles do that. In this case, however, I let a few of my personal biases shine through; thus resulting in the comment that LT, SJax, Addai, and Rudi are the safest bets -- which in my opinion they are. Do I think that they'll be the four best running backs in fantasy football? Not by a long shot. But personally, I am willing to give up some of the fantasy production for my perceived safeness with having them on my roster. The ceiling isn't as high, but neither is the floor.

Once again, thanks for reading.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby eagles21 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:31 am

Geoffrey Stein wrote:First off: Thanks for the kind words. It's always nice to know that people enjoy the thoughts that are transfered from my brain to my fingers to the MDC keyboard to your computer screen.

Honestly, when it comes to the 2007 fantasy football season, I am scared to death of any running back not named Tomlinson, Jackson, Rudi, or Addai. I am currently working on an article -- that I hope to get out this week -- about how important it is not to mis-fire on a first round selection. Getting "LaMonted" or "Cadillaced" early really puts your team behind the eight ball, and this season, I don't see any late-round or free agent Barbers, Jones-Drews, or Colstons that will be able to offset the negatives of a failed first round pick.

So, my argument becomes: Draft the safest, surest thing early.

Whenever I write something, I try to avoid the "this is what you have to do to win" mentality that a lot of the writers in the industry use. Instead, I like to offer various pieces of legit information and let the reader decide on their own: I feel my Pessimistic View articles do that. In this case, however, I let a few of my personal biases shine through; thus resulting in the comment that LT, SJax, Addai, and Rudi are the safest bets -- which in my opinion they are. Do I think that they'll be the four best running backs in fantasy football? Not by a long shot. But personally, I am willing to give up some of the fantasy production for my perceived safeness with having them on my roster. The ceiling isn't as high, but neither is the floor.

Once again, thanks for reading.


Yeah, I really liked the article because you really did talk about the problems of all the running backs, no matter where they are ranked, not just the ones that everyone thinks are going to be busts. But, fantasy football is about taking risks, so I will probably end up having running backs other than these 4.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby chidoy » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:47 am

Good read... I agree, after those 4 it's kinda crapshoot. I'd add Westy in there but that's just me. Maybe WR's are the way to go while others are taking RB's?
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby Azrael » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:54 am

Geoffrey Stein wrote: Getting "LaMonted" or "Cadillaced" early really puts your team behind the eight ball, and this season, I don't see any late-round or free agent Barbers, Jones-Drews, or Colstons that will be able to offset the negatives of a failed first round pick.


Nobody sees these guys. That's why they're 16th round or FA picks. If we thought we could see them coming, they wouldn't be on the WW. But they are there every year. Some guy or 2 or 3 (hmm, Nick Goings) goes down with an injury and a guy you never heard of or heard of but wasn't supposed to play comes in and has atleast serviceable production and he goes down in the annals of FF history as the pickup that won people championships (Domanick Davis) or atleast got them there.

But still good writing. Keep it coming.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby mattb47 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:58 am

I'm sorry, but Barlow is no real threat to take anything including goal line carries from Parker...he's just not a very good back and you said it yourself, Parker scored 12 of his 13 TDs in the redzone...dont need to fix what isn't broken.

Also, I dont expect Thomas Jones' touches to go anything but up from where they were in Chicago. Washington couldnt consistently beat out Cedric Houston and Barlow for carries, and Jones is far better than any of those guys. Jones will be the man there.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby sublimeandy » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:03 pm

Exactly.[/quote]

Honestly, when it comes to the 2007 fantasy football season, I am scared to death of any running back not named Tomlinson, Jackson, Rudi, or Addai. I am currently working on an article -- that I hope to get out this week -- about how important it is not to mis-fire on a first round selection. Getting "LaMonted" or "Cadillaced" early really puts your team behind the eight ball, and this season, I don't see any late-round or free agent Barbers, Jones-Drews, or Colstons that will be able to offset the negatives of a failed first round pick.
[/quote]

how can you say you don't see and barbers, jones drews or colstons? no one can see them but they are always there. every year someone comes out of the woodwork to light up fantasy football and it will happen this year,next year and the year after that. If we could see who these super sleepers were then they wouldn't be sleepers. you're too negative man!
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