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Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby Geoffrey Stein » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:29 pm

Azrael wrote:
Geoffrey Stein wrote: Getting "LaMonted" or "Cadillaced" early really puts your team behind the eight ball, and this season, I don't see any late-round or free agent Barbers, Jones-Drews, or Colstons that will be able to offset the negatives of a failed first round pick.


Nobody sees these guys. That's why they're 16th round or FA picks. If we thought we could see them coming, they wouldn't be on the WW. But they are there every year. Some guy or 2 or 3 (hmm, Nick Goings) goes down with an injury and a guy you never heard of or heard of but wasn't supposed to play comes in and has atleast serviceable production and he goes down in the annals of FF history as the pickup that won people championships (Domanick Davis) or atleast got them there.

But still good writing. Keep it coming.


Sure, there will be players that come out of nowhere to perform. It happens every year and I'll go on record as saying that it will happen this season.

However, I am willing to bet that there won't be three players who come out of nowhere and put up top ten (for their position) fantasy numbers -- thus offsetting a bad first round selection. Maybe one, possibly two, but three? Just don't see it.

There will always be talent available on the waiver wires -- especially at the start of the season. Last season was an abnormality, however, and it helped to bail a lot of people out of bad situations. My philosophy is to draft as safe as possible and assume that there won't be the 14-touchdown waiver wire gem.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby Free Bagel » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:39 pm

Geoffrey Stein wrote:Honestly, when it comes to the 2007 fantasy football season, I am scared to death of any running back not named Tomlinson, Jackson, Rudi, or Addai. I am currently working on an article -- that I hope to get out this week -- about how important it is not to mis-fire on a first round selection. Getting "LaMonted" or "Cadillaced" early really puts your team behind the eight ball, and this season, I don't see any late-round or free agent Barbers, Jones-Drews, or Colstons that will be able to offset the negatives of a failed first round pick.

So, my argument becomes: Draft the safest, surest thing early.


This basically follows the whole "You can't win your draft in the 1st round, but you can lose it" slogan that I principally disagree with.

People fail to realize that a first round hit can be just as beneficial to you as a first round bust can be detrimental. The advantage an LT owner gained over a Rudi Johnson owner last year was just as large as the advantage a Rudi Johnson owner had over someone that was starting Brad Hoover in their RB1 slot.

Now, that was easy last year because LT was also the "safe" pick, but this was more applicable a couple years ago with the Priest/LJ combo at the expense of an early pick and a mid-round pick vs. just taking a "safer" guy that ended up not being able to put up even half those point totals.

People that took Rudi Johnson over Steven Jackson last year don't "feel" as bad as people that took Cadillac Williams over Rudi Johnson, but they should. The person that took Caddy over Rudi actually lost more points than the person that took Rudi over Sjax did, but perception blinds us from this.

The problem with drafting the "safe" guy is you're paying for something intangible. You're willing to pay more for numbers that aren't worth that draft spot just to be "safe". You're taking a guy where you're happy if the guys point totals don't justify his draft spot at the end of the year you're still happy just because you're scared of the bottom falling out, and generally these guys have almost no potential to actually exceed that draft position (which is what wins FF championships). If you take a guy like Rudi in the mid-1st you HAVE to be the guy who hits on those couple of middle/late round guys that vastly exceed their draft position, which statistically is far from in your favor.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby RudyBlue » Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:01 pm

Thanks for a great read. I agreed with most of your arguments against some of these RB's; others I'm still willing to take a chance on simple because the RB pool is really pretty lacking this year. But certainly while drafting I'll be keeping in mind some of your comments. ;)

Thanks for all your hard work with this article.

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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby knapplc » Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:55 pm

Sooooooo.... in my Keeper league I have LT2 and Addai.

Think I'm set at RB? :-b :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby Dawinner127 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 6:36 pm

mattb47 wrote:Also, I dont expect Thomas Jones' touches to go anything but up from where they were in Chicago. Washington couldnt consistently beat out Cedric Houston and Barlow for carries, and Jones is far better than any of those guys. Jones will be the man there.

If Matt hadn't already posted, I would have posted something along the lines of this.
A win next week and all is forgotten.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby Timbathia » Mon Jun 25, 2007 6:48 pm

knapplc wrote:Sooooooo.... in my Keeper league I have LT2 and Addai.

Think I'm set at RB? :-b :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D


There is no such thing as set. At the end of 2005 season I had LT2, Jordan and DDavis as my keepers - ask me how that ended up last year. This year I have LT2, Gore and Jacobs going in - and I am willing to bet that one busts and another has a serious injury this year.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby Azrael » Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:01 pm

Timbathia wrote:
knapplc wrote:Sooooooo.... in my Keeper league I have LT2 and Addai.

Think I'm set at RB? :-b :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D


There is no such thing as set. At the end of 2005 season I had LT2, Jordan and DDavis as my keepers - ask me how that ended up last year. This year I have LT2, Gore and Jacobs going in - and I am willing to bet that one busts and another has a serious injury this year.


Heh, no kidding. I remember being in a keeper league in 2004 and some guy had McGahee, Owens, and Holmes to keep. I thought he was going to bury the league. McGahee stunk, Owens got suspended and Holmes went down for the year. Anything can happen.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby steelerfan513 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:45 pm

Overall, I like the article. Informative about the risks associated with each running back, and overall, I agree with most of it. Like mattb said, Kevan Barlow will not threaten Willie's carries in anyway, but I'm glad that you noticed that Willie is actually an excellent goal line running back, whereas the common misconception is that he is fast and gets touchdowns through long runs.

There are a couple players that I disagree on. Frank Gore's main issue is his durability concerns. His fumbling problem shouldn't be a huge issue anymore because 4 of his 6 fumbles last year came in the first 4 weeks, and the fumbles after those weeks weren't in goal line situations. Looking back at Edgerrin Jame's 2006 season would be a bit misleading. The Cardinals' coaching staff is going to make the offensive line better than it was last year, and although I still think that line can't be fixed in just one off-season, it can be improved, and with the weapons on that offense, just a small improvement up front can mean a huge difference. Other than those couple points, a great article.

To be even more pessimistic, even sure things can falter. Injuries and off-the-field trouble are unpredictable. I'm not saying that one of the "sure thing" running backs is definitely going to encounter trouble, but I can see possible downfalls in 3 of them (LT is LT). The Rams added weapons in the passing game (Drew Bennett as the slot receiver and Randy McMichael to start at tight end), and that could take away from S-Jax's rushing and passing totals. Rudi actually had a below average YPC of 3.8, the Bengals lost a great offensive lineman in Eric Steinbach in the off-season, and why did the Bengals draft Kenny Irons? He probably won't be an immediate threat for carries, but drafting him showed that the Bengals are concerned about their running back situation. Maybe it's because Chris Perry can't stay healthy, but why use a 2nd rounder to address a backup position? Addai will need to prove he can handle the full load without a back like Rhodes to help him out, and there have been a fair number of sophomore slumps, although not many of them had offenses like Addai does.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby RJ24VC15 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:06 pm

Looks like there's 4 RB's that dont suck.
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Re: Good read - Pessimistic View: Running Backs

Postby joelamosobadiah » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:44 pm

Nice articles. It is neat looking at the con side of things in RB's. Most articles talk about all the player's upsides and it gives a nice perspective to flip that around. ;-D
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