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Leinart vs. Cutler

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Who will put up better stats THIS season?

Matt Leinart
20
69%
Jay Cutler
9
31%
 
Total votes : 29

Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby Bravos of Steel » Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:23 pm

Timbathia wrote:
mrblitz wrote:
Popcynical wrote:Leinart. Why? Fitz and Boldin.



It's as simple as that, I do think that both have at least 15 int's also.


I dont mean to offend anyone - but this is a cop out of a reason.

Fitz and Boldin are better than New Orleans receivers, Seattles receivers, Phillys receivers, New Englands receivers and you can maybe even make a case for St Louis's receivers. Indy and maybe Cinci are the only teams with better receivers, yet you guys arent trying to make a case for Leinart being better than Brees, Hass, McNabb, Brady or Bulger (or are you).

I dont think it is anywhere near as simple as "Fitz and Boldin" and I would venture to say that the reason is more to do with Arizona being a team that is ineffective at running the ball as well as being a team that will be behind a lot more than Denver.


good point, and for my sake, I hope Cutler has the better season
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Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby knapplc » Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:58 pm

mattb47 wrote:Oh knapp....you should know that extrapolating stuff doesn't work over a course of a year if you only use 5 games....that never works out like that. I'm not saying he doesn't have a chance of putting up numbers worthy of a fantasy starter but I certainly wouldn't want to depend on him as my #1 this year and given a choice between these two guys I would take Leinart easily.

And some of those "easy" games you listed wont be all that easy. Try taking out Oakland who had the league's #1 pass defense last year and Indy who had the #2 pass defense last year. SD had the #13 pass defense last year and Green Bay was only 17. The only truly poor pass defenses on that list are Minnesota, Detroit, Houston and KC and even then Minnesota only gave up 15 pass TDs all year last year (4th best in NFL) and KC only gave up 18 pass TDs last year. In fact, if you average all those games you mentioned (including KC and Oak x 2 games), those defenses only gave up an average of 18.8 passing TDs last season which is good for 12th best in the NFL. And that's easy how?

Matt, Matt, Matt, Matt. You're tossing the baby out with the bathwater. The "rankings" you're using are for yards per game, not TDs. In Fantasy we don't care how many yards they give up nearly as much as we care about how many TDs they give up. TDs are the money.

Of those teams listed only Minnesota gave up less than one TD per game. The rest averaged greater than one per game, and remember, Cutler played against San Diego, one of the "tough" teams you're counting against him. He threw two TDs in that game, if you recall.

Cutler's 9 TDs in five games - his FIRST five games ever - was impressive enough to me to show that he's going to be just fine this year. Add into the mix an improved running game with the acquisition of Travis Henry and you've got a QB who has enough weapons to score, enough of an offense around him to concern opponents, and most importantly a fantastic, time-tested O-Line to keep his jersey clean.

I'm not going to claim that Cutler is the Golden Child, but I am going to caution everyone not to get all geeked up over Leinart. Taking Leinart WAY before Cutler would be a mistake.

Thanks for listening.
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Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby joelamosobadiah » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:03 pm

mystykoekaki wrote:Leinart. When you are talking about stats, you are talking about offensive stats. Cards have more offensive weapons, more offensive weapons most likely will equal better overall stats.


Yeah, that's about what my thoughts are as well. Along the same lines as the argument for unproven Tony Romo. With those WR's/RB's, he has to put up at least decent numbers. ;-D
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Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby stomperrob » Tue Jun 26, 2007 10:42 am

I'll give Leinart a slight edge because the team has made a few improvements, but mostly because they finally have a coach whose brains are not in his a**!
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Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:00 pm

knapplc wrote:
mattb47 wrote:Oh knapp....you should know that extrapolating stuff doesn't work over a course of a year if you only use 5 games....that never works out like that. I'm not saying he doesn't have a chance of putting up numbers worthy of a fantasy starter but I certainly wouldn't want to depend on him as my #1 this year and given a choice between these two guys I would take Leinart easily.

And some of those "easy" games you listed wont be all that easy. Try taking out Oakland who had the league's #1 pass defense last year and Indy who had the #2 pass defense last year. SD had the #13 pass defense last year and Green Bay was only 17. The only truly poor pass defenses on that list are Minnesota, Detroit, Houston and KC and even then Minnesota only gave up 15 pass TDs all year last year (4th best in NFL) and KC only gave up 18 pass TDs last year. In fact, if you average all those games you mentioned (including KC and Oak x 2 games), those defenses only gave up an average of 18.8 passing TDs last season which is good for 12th best in the NFL. And that's easy how?


Matt, Matt, Matt, Matt. You're tossing the baby out with the bathwater. The "rankings" you're using are for yards per game, not TDs. In Fantasy we don't care how many yards they give up nearly as much as we care about how many TDs they give up. TDs are the money.

Of those teams listed only Minnesota gave up less than one TD per game. The rest averaged greater than one per game, and remember, Cutler played against San Diego, one of the "tough" teams you're counting against him. He threw two TDs in that game, if you recall.

Cutler's 9 TDs in five games - his FIRST five games ever - was impressive enough to me to show that he's going to be just fine this year. Add into the mix an improved running game with the acquisition of Travis Henry and you've got a QB who has enough weapons to score, enough of an offense around him to concern opponents, and most importantly a fantastic, time-tested O-Line to keep his jersey clean.

I'm not going to claim that Cutler is the Golden Child, but I am going to caution everyone not to get all geeked up over Leinart. Taking Leinart WAY before Cutler would be a mistake.

Thanks for listening.


Well, maybe you missed the part where I showed that really none of them gave up all that many TDs either last year. You are making it sound like giving up 1 TD per game or more is terrible for a defense but in reality only 4 defenses in entire NFL gave up less than 1 TD per game last year. And I gave you the stat that among the teams you listed there, they gave up an average of 18.8 TDs last season for the whole year....which would be ranked 12th best if it was one team. So that means that those teams gave up a whopping 1.18 TDs per game. I don't know about you, but 1 TD per game isn't my goal for my fantasy QB. And quite frankly, Cutler throwing 2 TDs against a team last year is supposed to be an argument that he'll do great against them this year? Come on now....let's be serious. If you want, let's look at the TDs allowed for all those teams then. We have Minnesota at #4 (15 TDs), Indy tied for #5 (16 TDs), Oakland tied for #7 (17 TDs), KC tied for #9 (18 TDs), San Diego tied for #12 (19 TDs). So once again, we're only left with Detroit, Houston, and Green Bay as truly bad defenses on that list.

And really, while 9 TDs is all well and good in your first 5 starts...it's not unheard of to start great right out of the gate. Happens all the time with players especially when they take over in mid season because it takes a while for defenses to truly be ready for you. Look at how Tony Romo started. He had 10 TDs in his first 5 starts with only 2 INTs and then proceeded to finish the season with 6 TDs and 8 INTs in his last 5 starts. Also, let's keep in mind that the defenses Cutler faced in those last 5 games gave up an average of 22.4 passing TDs last season which would be ranked at 23rd best in the NFL. We'll see how he does when he plays some better competition this year and teams get to see him all season long instead of just the last 5 games.
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Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby knapplc » Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:39 pm

So on the one hand you say I'm wrong for using last year's stats as a benchmark for what might happen this year, then you proceed to use last year's stats to prove your point.

Methinks that's a bit odd, Matt!! :-D

Seriously - Cutler and Leinart will not be vastly different in terms of fantasy points next year. That's the bottom line.
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Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:49 pm

knapplc wrote:So on the one hand you say I'm wrong for using last year's stats as a benchmark for what might happen this year, then you proceed to use last year's stats to prove your point.

Methinks that's a bit odd, Matt!! :-D

Seriously - Cutler and Leinart will not be vastly different in terms of fantasy points next year. That's the bottom line.


No...actually what I said was that you can't say Cutler did well against that team last year therefore he will do well against them next year. Just doesn't work like that.

But really, the defensive team stats from last year is the best thing we have to work with so I'll use what I have there. I would use this upcoming year's stats but people might freak out if they found out a psychic was here on the cafe. :-o :-b :-b

And we'll have to agree to disagree on this one because I think Leinart will be a decent amount better than Cutler next year....just better weapons, worse defense, more passing. Arizona 545 pass attempts last season, Denver 454 pass attempts last season.
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Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby Doughhead » Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:27 pm

Any chance Cutler could have a similar season to Rivers last year? Seems like there might be some similarities in that Rivers' offensive ability seemed to be maximized (not diminished) by the presence of LT2. Could Denver's run-first approach and decent O-line actually benefit Cutler by giving him more time and space? I like Leinart, but the flipside of playing for a weak offense is lots of turnovers and lots of pressure, as teams will be expecting the pass more often and Arizona's O-line might not be up to the challenge.
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Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby RudyBlue » Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:30 pm

I like both Leinart and Cutler. They have at least 1 good RB each (at least now that Arizona has a new coach with a running mentality), Arizona has for sure 2 good WR's and Denver may if Brandon Marshall lives up to the current hype. Arizona's defense will be improved this year along with the morale of the whole team with their new coach. Denver defense and players are perhaps just a bit better and in tune with their coach. Given all this, I choose Leinart. So what makes me choose Leinart?

Ease of schedule: (per The Huddle and FF Toolbox)

FF Toolbox has Arizona's EOS ranked at #4 for QB, #5 for RB, and #3 for WR.
The Huddle has Arizona ranked for QB/WR Ease of Schedule:
Weeks 1- 6: #5 (Dorey Rule about starting your ff season off well.)
Weeks 1 - 16: #1
Weeks 14-16 (FF Play-offs): #5

FF Toolbox has Denver's EOS ranked at #31 for QB, #13 for RB, and #30 for WR.
The Huddle has Denver ranked for QB/WR Ease of Schedule:
Weeks 1-6: #32 (Dorey Rule about starting your ff season off well.)
Weeks 1-16: #27
Weeks 14-16 (FF Play-offs): #25

While I understand that these stats are based on the performance of last years defenses and that there will most likely be improvement in many of the teams Denver and Arizona will play this year, I still have to go with the stats when both sites are so reasonably close in their stats.

Also, I think Leinart has a chip on his shoulder from dropping so far in the draft in '06 and that is going to be a HUGE incentive for him this year. He's out to prove something.

Given all this, I sure wish I had Leinart on my dynasty team and I'm sure glad you don't, Pirate, 'cause you already got a bunch of great QB's. :)

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Re: Leinart vs. Cutler

Postby Little Big Head » Tue Jun 26, 2007 8:03 pm

wow really surprised over the poll results. I think Whisenhut will run a ball control offense there, and not air it out. Denver has regularly produced 3500yds 25td yd passers under Shannahan, and I see higher upside for Cutler. Cutlers performance as a rookie was pretty remarkable and would have translated to 29tds over a full season. Everyone talks about Boldin and Fitzgerald, but Walker, Marshall, and Rod Smith arent exactly chumps in terms of talent. The fact that Cutler ha more viable options in Scheffler and Graham at the TE position also shouldnt be over looked. I think Cutler is going to breakout in a big way this year, while Leinart improves in a more conservative offense. Obviously, I voted Cutler. just my .02
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