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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby bagobonez » Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:36 am

mattb47 wrote:I'm not going to give much credence to an argument that his team's defense caused his poor play. The defense may force you to pass a bit more, but it sure doesn't make you a worse passer. I think that's a rather large cop out to give him an excuse like that quite honestly.

Let's look at those games from a fantasy standpoint. This is assuming the pretty standard 1 pt/25 yds passing, 4 pts/TD and -2 pts/INT.

vs NYG: 6.28 fantasy points
vs NO: 9.96 fantasy points
vs ATL: 17.12 fantasy points
vs PHI: 5.68 fantasy points
vs DET: 18.84 fantasy points

Now are we to be impressed that he had good pretty decent games against ATL and DET? That would be against the 29th and 24th ranked pass defenses last season. Actually, in ALL Romo's games, the best he performed against a pass defense ranked higher than 19th (which he only faced 4 of), was 12.8 fantasy points against Carolina who was struggling quite a bit at the time where he had 270 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT. His other performances against the better teams he played was a 7.04 pt performance against Indy, the 9.96 pt performance against NO, and the 5.68 pt performance against Philly. Doesn't exactly instill confidence for this year now does it?

Now, while Grossman may have been extremely inconsistent. He had his fair share of good and bad games against both good and bad defenses which really, to me, amounts it to just some flaws within his own game that can be fixed instead of it being that defenses really figured him out and he couldn't adapt. Grossman had 8 games against teams rated higher than 19 in passing defense and in 3 of those games he had at least 15 fantasy points or more (15.28, 16.00, and 17.28) with one of them also being over 12 fantasy points. Could he be inconsistent again this year? Yes, of course. But I think he's got a reasonable chance of fixing some of those things that made him so inconsistent (i.e. throwing off his back foot so much) and becoming more of a solid performer. I personally think the chances are higher there than with Romo, who all of his big games came against very weak passing defenses.


Having said that would you draft Grossman ahead of Romo?
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby aaawall91 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 8:01 am

bagobonez wrote:
mattb47 wrote:I'm not going to give much credence to an argument that his team's defense caused his poor play. The defense may force you to pass a bit more, but it sure doesn't make you a worse passer. I think that's a rather large cop out to give him an excuse like that quite honestly.

Let's look at those games from a fantasy standpoint. This is assuming the pretty standard 1 pt/25 yds passing, 4 pts/TD and -2 pts/INT.

vs NYG: 6.28 fantasy points
vs NO: 9.96 fantasy points
vs ATL: 17.12 fantasy points
vs PHI: 5.68 fantasy points
vs DET: 18.84 fantasy points

Now are we to be impressed that he had good pretty decent games against ATL and DET? That would be against the 29th and 24th ranked pass defenses last season. Actually, in ALL Romo's games, the best he performed against a pass defense ranked higher than 19th (which he only faced 4 of), was 12.8 fantasy points against Carolina who was struggling quite a bit at the time where he had 270 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT. His other performances against the better teams he played was a 7.04 pt performance against Indy, the 9.96 pt performance against NO, and the 5.68 pt performance against Philly. Doesn't exactly instill confidence for this year now does it?

Now, while Grossman may have been extremely inconsistent. He had his fair share of good and bad games against both good and bad defenses which really, to me, amounts it to just some flaws within his own game that can be fixed instead of it being that defenses really figured him out and he couldn't adapt. Grossman had 8 games against teams rated higher than 19 in passing defense and in 3 of those games he had at least 15 fantasy points or more (15.28, 16.00, and 17.28) with one of them also being over 12 fantasy points. Could he be inconsistent again this year? Yes, of course. But I think he's got a reasonable chance of fixing some of those things that made him so inconsistent (i.e. throwing off his back foot so much) and becoming more of a solid performer. I personally think the chances are higher there than with Romo, who all of his big games came against very weak passing defenses.


Having said that would you draft Grossman ahead of Romo?


I would, but of course I wouldn't draft Grossman were you expect Romo to go, it would be rounds later because neither are worth that, but Grossman is a better fantasy option for this coming season.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby Humpback » Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:03 am

aaawall91 wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
mattb47 wrote:I'm not going to give much credence to an argument that his team's defense caused his poor play. The defense may force you to pass a bit more, but it sure doesn't make you a worse passer. I think that's a rather large cop out to give him an excuse like that quite honestly.

Let's look at those games from a fantasy standpoint. This is assuming the pretty standard 1 pt/25 yds passing, 4 pts/TD and -2 pts/INT.

vs NYG: 6.28 fantasy points
vs NO: 9.96 fantasy points
vs ATL: 17.12 fantasy points
vs PHI: 5.68 fantasy points
vs DET: 18.84 fantasy points

Now are we to be impressed that he had good pretty decent games against ATL and DET? That would be against the 29th and 24th ranked pass defenses last season. Actually, in ALL Romo's games, the best he performed against a pass defense ranked higher than 19th (which he only faced 4 of), was 12.8 fantasy points against Carolina who was struggling quite a bit at the time where he had 270 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT. His other performances against the better teams he played was a 7.04 pt performance against Indy, the 9.96 pt performance against NO, and the 5.68 pt performance against Philly. Doesn't exactly instill confidence for this year now does it?

Now, while Grossman may have been extremely inconsistent. He had his fair share of good and bad games against both good and bad defenses which really, to me, amounts it to just some flaws within his own game that can be fixed instead of it being that defenses really figured him out and he couldn't adapt. Grossman had 8 games against teams rated higher than 19 in passing defense and in 3 of those games he had at least 15 fantasy points or more (15.28, 16.00, and 17.28) with one of them also being over 12 fantasy points. Could he be inconsistent again this year? Yes, of course. But I think he's got a reasonable chance of fixing some of those things that made him so inconsistent (i.e. throwing off his back foot so much) and becoming more of a solid performer. I personally think the chances are higher there than with Romo, who all of his big games came against very weak passing defenses.


Having said that would you draft Grossman ahead of Romo?


I would, but of course I wouldn't draft Grossman were you expect Romo to go, it would be rounds later because neither are worth that, but Grossman is a better fantasy option for this coming season.


Man, you're really taking this "arguing for the sake of arguing" thing to the extreme. In no way, shape, or form is Rex Grossman a better fantasy option for this coming season than Romo.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:33 am

Humpback wrote:
aaawall91 wrote:
bagobonez wrote:Having said that would you draft Grossman ahead of Romo?


I would, but of course I wouldn't draft Grossman were you expect Romo to go, it would be rounds later because neither are worth that, but Grossman is a better fantasy option for this coming season.


Man, you're really taking this "arguing for the sake of arguing" thing to the extreme. In no way, shape, or form is Rex Grossman a better fantasy option for this coming season than Romo.


I don't think it's arguing for the sake of arguing. I just laid out a solid argument as to why Romo really didn't do much at all to impress last year given the teams he had to face and how he really was mediocre to bad against every good pass defense he played and while Grossman was inconsistent over the course of the year, he had his fair share of good games against good defenses.

And to answer that question, yes, I would take Grossman before Romo but like aaawall I wouldn't draft Romo nearly as high as everyone else seems to want to. But who would I rather have on my team next year? I'll take Grossman personally...I think he's exceptionally underrated this year and could be in for a very solid season.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:07 pm

Wow, I opened this thread thinking I was going to get 7 pages of stimulating TE discussion and I'm reading 7 pages of people unfairly knocking Romo (aawall91), people unfairly touting Romo (Bagobonez). I think there are some personal biases at play there. I don't want to do what a lot of people do and throw mud at another team's optimism. Cowboys fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about what Romo can do for this year. He showed a lot of talent last year and he still has all of the weapons.

Conversely, everyone else can see that trends in his performance should lower his draft stock significantly from where it was say, around the day after Thanksgiving last year. How significantly? That's the debate. I see him as in the same QB tier as guys like Rivers, Eli, Cutler, and Leinart. He's a guy you can wait a long time to get.

FWIW, in real life (not fantasy) I'd much much rather have Campbell than Romo. :-b

Onto TEs, I have to agree with those who are saying to bump Crumpler. This year I have him as the #2 TE behind Gates. He's underrated every year and he's one of the few dynamic players at the position. So much more upside than Heap or Gonzo at this point IMHO.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby skibrett15 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:31 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:Wow, I opened this thread thinking I was going to get 7 pages of stimulating TE discussion and I'm reading 7 pages of people unfairly knocking Romo (aawall91), people unfairly touting Romo (Bagobonez). I think there are some personal biases at play there. I don't want to do what a lot of people do and throw mud at another team's optimism. Cowboys fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about what Romo can do for this year. He showed a lot of talent last year and he still has all of the weapons.

Conversely, everyone else can see that trends in his performance should lower his draft stock significantly from where it was say, around the day after Thanksgiving last year. How significantly? That's the debate. I see him as in the same QB tier as guys like Rivers, Eli, Cutler, and Leinart. He's a guy you can wait a long time to get.

FWIW, in real life (not fantasy) I'd much much rather have Campbell than Romo. :-b

Onto TEs, I have to agree with those who are saying to bump Crumpler. This year I have him as the #2 TE behind Gates. He's underrated every year and he's one of the few dynamic players at the position. So much more upside than Heap or Gonzo at this point IMHO.


Tony G is gonna put up another 900 yard season no matter who is QB. As for Crumpler, I think he's a guy I'd consider after Gonzalez but before heap.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:38 pm

With Crumpler though, you have to be kinda worried if some of that legal trouble catches up to Vick because part of Crumpler's great value at TE is that he's Vick's go to guy. If Vick has to sit out for any length of time we don't really know how that will effect Crumpler's production.

I feel that this year there is alot of depth at TE, moreso than recent years. Plenty more guys this year that are close together near the top and then many more that are serviceable at TE. I think guys like Gonzo, Heap, Winslow, Shockey, Crumpler, Cooley, and possibly Vernon Davis could all end up very close this year and while I'd rather have Gonzo or Heap personally, I wouldn't be too upset with any of these guys. Then you have players like Witten, H. Miller, LJ Smith, Dallas Clark, McMichael, and maybe even a couple sleeper guys this year like E. Johnson and D. Martin who could also put up some very nice numbers. This is not even mentioning the guys like Ben Watson, Greg Olsen/Desmond Clark, Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler/Daniel Graham, and Ben Troupe who are all guys who could also put up some solid production at TE. Personally, I'm not going to fret to get a TE all that much this year.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:51 pm

mattb47 wrote:With Crumpler though, you have to be kinda worried if some of that legal trouble catches up to Vick because part of Crumpler's great value at TE is that he's Vick's go to guy. If Vick has to sit out for any length of time we don't really know how that will effect Crumpler's production.

I feel that this year there is alot of depth at TE, moreso than recent years. Plenty more guys this year that are close together near the top and then many more that are serviceable at TE. I think guys like Gonzo, Heap, Winslow, Shockey, Crumpler, Cooley, and possibly Vernon Davis could all end up very close this year and while I'd rather have Gonzo or Heap personally, I wouldn't be too upset with any of these guys. Then you have players like Witten, H. Miller, LJ Smith, Dallas Clark, McMichael, and maybe even a couple sleeper guys this year like E. Johnson and D. Martin who could also put up some very nice numbers. This is not even mentioning the guys like Ben Watson, Greg Olsen/Desmond Clark, Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler/Daniel Graham, and Ben Troupe who are all guys who could also put up some solid production at TE. Personally, I'm not going to fret to get a TE all that much this year.


I agree that the position is very deep. I guess the question I would have is when are these top guys going? When should I grab them, specifically the top 4?

As best I know how to answer that is like this:

Gates is probably a 4th rounder, and I'll take him if he falls here.

Gonzo is overrated and will probably go in round 5 or 6, I probably won't get him because of this, but if he fell to the 7th, maybe I would.

Heap is probably a legit 6th round selection, but I'm just not too high on him, again, maybe in the 7th.

Crumpler, I think, will outperform his ADP which is probably also in the 6-7 range. Even though I like Crumpler I feel like the chips would have to fall perfectly for me to get him. The run on second tier TEs will have to have started with Heap or Gonzo, and it'll have to be no earlier than the 6th round. I'd rather not start a run with a guy who isn't the consensus top guy at the position, but I guess if the 7th came around and neither Heap, Crumpler, nor Gonzo were taken, I'd be in a legit pickle whether or not to take one of the three.

I'm really only sweating these top 4 because I really don't want to take one of them too early. If I get into the Cooley/Shockey/Witten/LJ Smith range, I'm not too worried about finding the right value.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 2:02 pm

These TEs have been going all over the place and it's very tough to guess who's going to fall to you where. For the most part unless I feel that one of these guys is falling further than he should, I've been staying away from guys like Gonzo, Heap, Crumpler, etc (although I would love to have Heap) and I've been waiting till the later rounds to grab some guys that will put up solid numbers and just using the earlier rounds to beef up my RBs and WRs. I've been looking for a TE more in rounds 8-10 personally.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri Jul 06, 2007 3:06 pm

mattb47 wrote:These TEs have been going all over the place and it's very tough to guess who's going to fall to you where. For the most part unless I feel that one of these guys is falling further than he should, I've been staying away from guys like Gonzo, Heap, Crumpler, etc (although I would love to have Heap) and I've been waiting till the later rounds to grab some guys that will put up solid numbers and just using the earlier rounds to beef up my RBs and WRs. I've been looking for a TE more in rounds 8-10 personally.


Last year I took Shockey in the 6th. Not only did he not live up to my expectations, but because I had invested such a high pick in him, I talked myself out of adding Colston. :-t

I spoke with another of my leaguemates who felt the same about Heap (at least with regards to not adding Colston). I guess there's something to be said for pushing the position even further to the backburner than most as far as the draft is concerned.
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