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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby biju » Fri Jul 06, 2007 4:04 pm

Just for the record, here are the current ADPs from both Antsports and FantasyFootballCalculator for 12 team leagues:

#	Player			Ant		FFC
1. Antonio Gates 3.07 3.12
2. Tony Gonzalez 5.10 6.04
3. Jeremy Shockey 6.04 6.09
4. Todd Heap 6.05 6.11
5. Kellen Winslow 7.02 7.05
6. Vernon Davis 7.06 6.05
7. Alge Crumpler 8.01 7.12
8. Chris Cooley 8.06 8.10
9. Jason Witten 9.04 9.02
10. L.J. Smith 9.09 11.07
11. Ben Watson 10.03 11.12
12. Heath Miller 11.05 12.04


the other two that just missed the top 12 were Dallas Clark and Randy McMichael. Given this, I can't see myself drafting a TE any earlier than 11th round unless I get someone way out of their ADP because good TEs are going late right now.

Of course, this might change as we get closer to the beginning of the season but I think everyone is noticing the same thing: a good TE can be had late in the drafts. This might just be a philosophical switch in the way TEs are being used now, because before it seemed that if you didn't grab one of the top 3 or so TEs it just didn't matter much who you ended up with.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby aaawall91 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 6:35 pm

Based on that I wouldn't mind grabbing Heap/KW3 in the 7th (preferably late or the 8th if both are left in the 7th) and then Heath Miller in the 11, that would be the best tandem in my eyes, based on price paid for what I'm getting.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby Humpback » Sat Jul 07, 2007 9:16 am

mattb47 wrote:
I don't think it's arguing for the sake of arguing. I just laid out a solid argument as to why Romo really didn't do much at all to impress last year given the teams he had to face and how he really was mediocre to bad against every good pass defense he played and while Grossman was inconsistent over the course of the year, he had his fair share of good games against good defenses.

And to answer that question, yes, I would take Grossman before Romo but like aaawall I wouldn't draft Romo nearly as high as everyone else seems to want to. But who would I rather have on my team next year? I'll take Grossman personally...I think he's exceptionally underrated this year and could be in for a very solid season.


"I just laid out a solid argument", lol. Yeah, you think it's a solid argument. Maybe he didn't do much at all to impress you last year, but last time I checked, that's only one opinion. Who really cares how they did vs. "good" or "bad" pass D's? They still have to play the games on their schedule, and even the games vs. bad D's count for FF purposes.

I won't say zero or 100% because anything can happen, but there's a 95% chance that Romo will be a more productive FF QB this year than Rex Grossman. Not that they're the only thing that matters, but I haven't seen a single publication that has Grossman even within 6-8 spots of Romo in their rankings, and I've seen a bunch. Most have him 10+ spots lower.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby mattb47 » Sat Jul 07, 2007 10:22 am

Humpback wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
I don't think it's arguing for the sake of arguing. I just laid out a solid argument as to why Romo really didn't do much at all to impress last year given the teams he had to face and how he really was mediocre to bad against every good pass defense he played and while Grossman was inconsistent over the course of the year, he had his fair share of good games against good defenses.

And to answer that question, yes, I would take Grossman before Romo but like aaawall I wouldn't draft Romo nearly as high as everyone else seems to want to. But who would I rather have on my team next year? I'll take Grossman personally...I think he's exceptionally underrated this year and could be in for a very solid season.


"I just laid out a solid argument", lol. Yeah, you think it's a solid argument. Maybe he didn't do much at all to impress you last year, but last time I checked, that's only one opinion. Who really cares how they did vs. "good" or "bad" pass D's? They still have to play the games on their schedule, and even the games vs. bad D's count for FF purposes.

I won't say zero or 100% because anything can happen, but there's a 95% chance that Romo will be a more productive FF QB this year than Rex Grossman. Not that they're the only thing that matters, but I haven't seen a single publication that has Grossman even within 6-8 spots of Romo in their rankings, and I've seen a bunch. Most have him 10+ spots lower.


Does a solid argument have to be an opinion had by a lot of people? What do you mean who cares how they did against good or bad pass defenses???? If a player ONLY does well against bad pass defenses and bad against good pass defenses then I don't think that makes him a very good QB. And certainly not a good fantasy starting QB. What exactly about my argument made it so ridiculous? Grossman did well and poorly against both good and bad teams meaning it's something that he can certainly fix because it was something that was wrong with his game but he showed that he could do it against the good teams. Romo did well and poorly against bad defenses and only mediocre to poor against good defenses...that means that even pretty good defenses could shut him down. Personally, that's just not a guy I really have much confidence in at all.

95% is VERY high for a guy as unproven and who struggled as much as he did against good teams as Romo did, I think that's a pretty large stretch for a percentage personally. Do you really think it matters to me at all where other people have them? The question posed to me is would I take him before Romo and the answer is yes. People have selective memories when it comes to players and the insane amount of negative publicity that Grossman got for his performances influences people more than they think. When you look at how poorly Romo really fared in his games against the better teams, it's certainly not unreasonable to think that he might struggle a bit more this year.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby TheRawDAWG » Sat Jul 07, 2007 11:11 am

mattb47 wrote:
Humpback wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
I don't think it's arguing for the sake of arguing. I just laid out a solid argument as to why Romo really didn't do much at all to impress last year given the teams he had to face and how he really was mediocre to bad against every good pass defense he played and while Grossman was inconsistent over the course of the year, he had his fair share of good games against good defenses.

And to answer that question, yes, I would take Grossman before Romo but like aaawall I wouldn't draft Romo nearly as high as everyone else seems to want to. But who would I rather have on my team next year? I'll take Grossman personally...I think he's exceptionally underrated this year and could be in for a very solid season.


"I just laid out a solid argument", lol. Yeah, you think it's a solid argument. Maybe he didn't do much at all to impress you last year, but last time I checked, that's only one opinion. Who really cares how they did vs. "good" or "bad" pass D's? They still have to play the games on their schedule, and even the games vs. bad D's count for FF purposes.

I won't say zero or 100% because anything can happen, but there's a 95% chance that Romo will be a more productive FF QB this year than Rex Grossman. Not that they're the only thing that matters, but I haven't seen a single publication that has Grossman even within 6-8 spots of Romo in their rankings, and I've seen a bunch. Most have him 10+ spots lower.


Does a solid argument have to be an opinion had by a lot of people? What do you mean who cares how they did against good or bad pass defenses???? If a player ONLY does well against bad pass defenses and bad against good pass defenses then I don't think that makes him a very good QB. And certainly not a good fantasy starting QB. What exactly about my argument made it so ridiculous? Grossman did well and poorly against both good and bad teams meaning it's something that he can certainly fix because it was something that was wrong with his game but he showed that he could do it against the good teams. Romo did well and poorly against bad defenses and only mediocre to poor against good defenses...that means that even pretty good defenses could shut him down. Personally, that's just not a guy I really have much confidence in at all.

95% is VERY high for a guy as unproven and who struggled as much as he did against good teams as Romo did, I think that's a pretty large stretch for a percentage personally. Do you really think it matters to me at all where other people have them? The question posed to me is would I take him before Romo and the answer is yes. People have selective memories when it comes to players and the insane amount of negative publicity that Grossman got for his performances influences people more than they think. When you look at how poorly Romo really fared in his games against the better teams, it's certainly not unreasonable to think that he might struggle a bit more this year.



Romo still passed for alot of yards against those teams. Romo had some bad decisions because he was forced into them by a BAD Cowboys D at the end of the year. How do you not see that? I also see Romo getting more chances to throw the ball in the red zone this year. His only playoff game he played very well. And overall had a passer rating of over 95. her threw for almost 3000 yards in 10.5 games.He threw for 19 TDs in 10.5 games. Grossman played 16 and threw 22 (I believe haven't looked it up). Romo has TO Glenn and witten to throw the ball too. Grossman lost his outlet in TJ. The only ball Grossman throws well is the down field bomb. You don't think teams are going to be prepared for that? All i can judge this on is you only looking at the stats and not actually watching the games. Romo didn't look that bad in those games considering the circumstances.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby Humpback » Sat Jul 07, 2007 11:43 am

mattb47 wrote:
Humpback wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
I don't think it's arguing for the sake of arguing. I just laid out a solid argument as to why Romo really didn't do much at all to impress last year given the teams he had to face and how he really was mediocre to bad against every good pass defense he played and while Grossman was inconsistent over the course of the year, he had his fair share of good games against good defenses.

And to answer that question, yes, I would take Grossman before Romo but like aaawall I wouldn't draft Romo nearly as high as everyone else seems to want to. But who would I rather have on my team next year? I'll take Grossman personally...I think he's exceptionally underrated this year and could be in for a very solid season.


"I just laid out a solid argument", lol. Yeah, you think it's a solid argument. Maybe he didn't do much at all to impress you last year, but last time I checked, that's only one opinion. Who really cares how they did vs. "good" or "bad" pass D's? They still have to play the games on their schedule, and even the games vs. bad D's count for FF purposes.

I won't say zero or 100% because anything can happen, but there's a 95% chance that Romo will be a more productive FF QB this year than Rex Grossman. Not that they're the only thing that matters, but I haven't seen a single publication that has Grossman even within 6-8 spots of Romo in their rankings, and I've seen a bunch. Most have him 10+ spots lower.


Does a solid argument have to be an opinion had by a lot of people? What do you mean who cares how they did against good or bad pass defenses???? If a player ONLY does well against bad pass defenses and bad against good pass defenses then I don't think that makes him a very good QB. And certainly not a good fantasy starting QB. What exactly about my argument made it so ridiculous? Grossman did well and poorly against both good and bad teams meaning it's something that he can certainly fix because it was something that was wrong with his game but he showed that he could do it against the good teams. Romo did well and poorly against bad defenses and only mediocre to poor against good defenses...that means that even pretty good defenses could shut him down. Personally, that's just not a guy I really have much confidence in at all.

95% is VERY high for a guy as unproven and who struggled as much as he did against good teams as Romo did, I think that's a pretty large stretch for a percentage personally. Do you really think it matters to me at all where other people have them? The question posed to me is would I take him before Romo and the answer is yes. People have selective memories when it comes to players and the insane amount of negative publicity that Grossman got for his performances influences people more than they think. When you look at how poorly Romo really fared in his games against the better teams, it's certainly not unreasonable to think that he might struggle a bit more this year.


Again, who cares how they do against a good or bad pass defense? We're not talking about how good they are talent wise (although I think Romo is better than Grossman, it's irrelevant for this), we're talking FF production. The point is, and I thought I was pretty clear, that even factoring his "bad" games against "good" D's, he's a much better FF option than Grossman. Not that I agree with the premise, but you could argue that you're better off "knowing" that Romo isn't going to perfom very well vs. good D's, then you can play match-ups. For example, you could've started Romo vs. Arizona, a not-so-good D, and he had a very nice game. If you started Grossman vs. Arizona, he would've destroyed you with his 144 yds, O TDs and 4 INTs. Using your logic, at least I can predict when Romo is going to have his good and bad games. With Grossman, it's a complete crapshoot every week.

I won't even get into the fact that you're basing a D being good or bad on passing yards per game, which is only one part of the equation. For example, NO was #3 in the NFL in passing yards per game given up, but they were tied for 30th in INTs and tied for 31st in TDs given up- they're not very good, overall.

As for the % being high, I'm not saying there's a 95% chance that Romo is a top 10 QB or anything, just that there's a 95% chance that he's a better FF QB than Grossman. Of course you're going to think that's high, by definition you think it's less than 50%. I know you don't care where others have him, but I'd think you'd be a little more comfortable if you could find at least 1 publication that had him even within 5 spots of Romo in the rankings, nevermind ahead of him. It's one thing to be in the minority, it's another to be almost completely isolated.

It's not negative publicity for Grossman, it's poor FF performance. The bottom line, he was one of the worst FF QBs who started every game last season. Add in the fact that he was so inconsistent (way more so than Romo) and had games where he completely destroyed a fantasy team, he was easily the worst, IMO. Even IF Romo struggled more, he'd have to fall a long way to end up behind Grossman. In most scoring formats, they had virtually identical total FF points, but Romo had 5 less starts. Romo has way more weapons on offense than Grossman. From a FF perspective, it's not close. Romo's upside and downside are both higher.
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RB: MJD, Westy, C. Johnson, A. Bradshaw, J. Ringer
WR: TO, Driver, J. Gage, Crabtree, J. Morgan, K. Curtis, E. Bennett, M. Sims-Walker
TE: Witten, M. Lewis
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D/ST: Tenn, NE
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby Detro76 » Sat Jul 07, 2007 1:03 pm

Ahh yes...and again fellas...this is a TE thread not Romo vs. Grossman. I figured when I went to the last page I'd get something about TE rankings not a debate on those two fairly insignificant QBs.

Back to topic. In the above list I was surprised not to see McMichael. I thought he'd be valued a bit more due to his change of scenery. In mocks I've been able to get him pretty late and feel like he'd do just fine in comparison to the others drafted before him (save Gates and maybe 1 or 2 others).
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby bagobonez » Sat Jul 07, 2007 6:06 pm

mattb47 wrote:
Humpback wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
I don't think it's arguing for the sake of arguing. I just laid out a solid argument as to why Romo really didn't do much at all to impress last year given the teams he had to face and how he really was mediocre to bad against every good pass defense he played and while Grossman was inconsistent over the course of the year, he had his fair share of good games against good defenses.

And to answer that question, yes, I would take Grossman before Romo but like aaawall I wouldn't draft Romo nearly as high as everyone else seems to want to. But who would I rather have on my team next year? I'll take Grossman personally...I think he's exceptionally underrated this year and could be in for a very solid season.


"I just laid out a solid argument", lol. Yeah, you think it's a solid argument. Maybe he didn't do much at all to impress you last year, but last time I checked, that's only one opinion. Who really cares how they did vs. "good" or "bad" pass D's? They still have to play the games on their schedule, and even the games vs. bad D's count for FF purposes.

I won't say zero or 100% because anything can happen, but there's a 95% chance that Romo will be a more productive FF QB this year than Rex Grossman. Not that they're the only thing that matters, but I haven't seen a single publication that has Grossman even within 6-8 spots of Romo in their rankings, and I've seen a bunch. Most have him 10+ spots lower.


Does a solid argument have to be an opinion had by a lot of people? What do you mean who cares how they did against good or bad pass defenses???? If a player ONLY does well against bad pass defenses and bad against good pass defenses then I don't think that makes him a very good QB. And certainly not a good fantasy starting QB. What exactly about my argument made it so ridiculous? Grossman did well and poorly against both good and bad teams meaning it's something that he can certainly fix because it was something that was wrong with his game but he showed that he could do it against the good teams. Romo did well and poorly against bad defenses and only mediocre to poor against good defenses...that means that even pretty good defenses could shut him down. Personally, that's just not a guy I really have much confidence in at all.

95% is VERY high for a guy as unproven and who struggled as much as he did against good teams as Romo did, I think that's a pretty large stretch for a percentage personally. Do you really think it matters to me at all where other people have them? The question posed to me is would I take him before Romo and the answer is yes. People have selective memories when it comes to players and the insane amount of negative publicity that Grossman got for his performances influences people more than they think. When you look at how poorly Romo really fared in his games against the better teams, it's certainly not unreasonable to think that he might struggle a bit more this year.


So playing well against good defenses are what makes a fantasy player good? And otherwise they are not good? That is the argument I'm hearing. Let's see here...

Rudi's a good fantasy RB right? Let's see how he fared against "good" run defenses...

vs PIT - 19 carries, 47 yards, 0 TD's
vs TB - 17 carries, 52 yards, 0 TD's
vs ATL - 12 carries, 46 yards, 1 TD's
vs BAL - 18 carries, 78 yards, 1 TD
vs BAL - 16 carries, 47 yards, 0 TD
vs PIT - 13 carries, 47 yards, 0 TD's

So... Rudi never topped 100 yards, and only rushed for more than 52 yards one time. Scored 2 TD's in a possible 6 games. Now tell me Rudi's not a good fantasy RB.


Now let's look at Grossman. Who did he have good games against?

The Lions... ranked 25th in total pass D
The Seahawks, ranked 16th in total pass D.
The Bills... ranked 7th.
The 49ers, ranked 26th in total pass D
The Giants, ranked 28th in total pass D
The Rams, ranked 8th in total pass D (probably because they were so easy to run on, they actually ranked 22nd in average yards allowed per pass play)
The Bucs, ranked 19th against the pass (and ranked 27th in average yards allowed per pass play)

So he faced one pass defense that was truly good, teh Bills. I don't count the Rams as a good pass D, because teams didn't need to pass against them when they could simply run it.

None of his other fantasy games were anything but mediocre or completely pitiful.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby bagobonez » Sun Jul 08, 2007 12:53 pm

Bump. I want to hear counter arguments to my last post.
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Re: Tight End Tiers

Postby FF Newbie » Sun Jul 08, 2007 1:04 pm

bagobonez wrote:Bump. I want to hear counter arguments to my last post.

Don't expect much. The argument that Grossman should be taken over Romo in fantasy drafts this year is an indefensible position.
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