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My 2007 QB Draft Cheatsheet w/ 2006 stats

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Re: My QB rankings with 2006 stats

Postby TripleLatte » Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:14 am

eaglesrule wrote:first of all its not about yards always, its about total fantasy points. McNabb has never done it true, but I need to remind you that the team sat him for two elective games in 2004, he was not injurerd. Kitna has also never sniffed a season like that, as he turns the ball over too much.

McNabb was the fantasy number one before going down last year. Granted he is an injruy risk, and if you feel that way, he bumps down even further. But if you are going to have mcnabb near the top, he has at the end of the top, and before kitna.

Judging from McNabb's body of work and kitna's, there isn't much comparison. Kitna's interceptions ALONE took away just over 7 td's from his total. So he had 23 total, but he really had just under 16 total because of his obscene interception rate. He also lost another nine fumbles, which equates to another 18 fantasy points lost. So thirty one turnovers? are you kidding me?

Your right, that is something that Kitna has done that McNabb has never done. Figuring 25 yards per point passing, -2 turonvers, and 6 pts per td, the difference between the two is around the area of 20 points because of Kitna's turnovers. You would be better off having owning mcnabb hurt and then playing his backup. Granted Donovan hasn't done the 4k thing, but his 2004 season was better than anything kitna has done, and the previous two years were on pace to be monstrous. With two more games, McNabb would have had a higher scoring season than Kitna had in 16. Not to mention that it was easy to get garcia from the wire, and the two combined were a shade under 4k in 15 games (feely played the Falcons game). Point being, Donovan clearly would have broken that threshold. I know these things are a judgment call, and we can't tell the future, but one is clearly better than the other, and Kitna's turnovers are abominable.



Thanks for the reply.

I think you misinterpreted my post as saying that Kitna is better than McNabb, not true. I would never take Kitna over McNabb. I just don't think it is not a lock that McNabb will out produce Kitna in 2007 which is what I interpret from you.

There are two factors in our analysis we definitely differ on:
1. Your league get -2 pts per INT/fumble
2. I just realized your alias....you eagles homer ;)

Still, last year, Kitna finished as the #6 overall QB in WCOFF scoring and he has had an additional year to adjust to his new team and Martz which should translate to less turnovers.

McNabb is also another player that will probably be drafted too high for me. I draft with a lot of Eagles homers so McNabb will go early. I would rather grab a #1 TE, #2 WR or #3 RB and wait for a player like Kitna 2-3 rounds later if that is what VBD is suggesting I do.

I don't follow VBD for every pick but do use it as a guideline.

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Re: My QB rankings with 2006 stats

Postby codered7 » Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:20 am

eagles21 wrote:Leinart and Cutler should be 2nd-tier, Favre should be third tier.

People are way too high on Kitna this year, he should be bottom of the second, top of the third tier in my opinion. I mean, the man had 22 int's last year and 9 fumbles lost! I understand that people think the fact that Detroit got Calvin Johnson, and their offensive line has been upgraded, that Kitna is a great sleeper, but 31 turnovers? This guy is a turnover machine! People are so high on him, and yet, I just don't see the upside in picking him as my starter.



agreed fake CJ isn't gonna make you a stud. Rookie wides usually don't do much in their first year.
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Re: My QB rankings with 2006 stats

Postby eaglesrule » Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:30 am

TripleLatte wrote:
eaglesrule wrote:first of all its not about yards always, its about total fantasy points. McNabb has never done it true, but I need to remind you that the team sat him for two elective games in 2004, he was not injurerd. Kitna has also never sniffed a season like that, as he turns the ball over too much.

McNabb was the fantasy number one before going down last year. Granted he is an injruy risk, and if you feel that way, he bumps down even further. But if you are going to have mcnabb near the top, he has at the end of the top, and before kitna.

Judging from McNabb's body of work and kitna's, there isn't much comparison. Kitna's interceptions ALONE took away just over 7 td's from his total. So he had 23 total, but he really had just under 16 total because of his obscene interception rate. He also lost another nine fumbles, which equates to another 18 fantasy points lost. So thirty one turnovers? are you kidding me?

Your right, that is something that Kitna has done that McNabb has never done. Figuring 25 yards per point passing, -2 turonvers, and 6 pts per td, the difference between the two is around the area of 20 points because of Kitna's turnovers. You would be better off having owning mcnabb hurt and then playing his backup. Granted Donovan hasn't done the 4k thing, but his 2004 season was better than anything kitna has done, and the previous two years were on pace to be monstrous. With two more games, McNabb would have had a higher scoring season than Kitna had in 16. Not to mention that it was easy to get garcia from the wire, and the two combined were a shade under 4k in 15 games (feely played the Falcons game). Point being, Donovan clearly would have broken that threshold. I know these things are a judgment call, and we can't tell the future, but one is clearly better than the other, and Kitna's turnovers are abominable.



Thanks for the reply.

I think you misinterpreted my post as saying that Kitna is better than McNabb, not true. I would never take Kitna over McNabb. I just don't think it is not a lock that McNabb will out produce Kitna in 2007 which is what I interpret from you.

There are two factors in our analysis we definitely differ on:
1. Your league get -2 pts per INT/fumble
2. I just realized your alias....you eagles homer ;)

Still, last year, Kitna finished as the #6 overall QB in WCOFF scoring and he has had an additional year to adjust to his new team and Martz which should translate to less turnovers.

McNabb is also another player that will probably be drafted too high for me. I draft with a lot of Eagles homers so McNabb will go early. I would rather grab a #1 TE, #2 WR or #3 RB and wait for a player like Kitna 2-3 rounds later if that is what VBD is suggesting I do.

I don't follow VBD for every pick but do use it as a guideline.

Go Giants ;-D


Based on VBD I think Kitna is the route too. But VBD wasn't the question. Do you play in a league that doesn't penalize for turnovers? -2 seems pretty standard to me. and even with -1, you are still talking about the scoring of five less touchdowns. I don't think homerism is a big deal here, because I personally would take the usual suspects and maybe bulger over mcnabb. I just don't see kitna as deserving of "usual" suspect status. Given his history, I'm taking manning and brady over him, 90 percent of the time brees, and a majority of the time palmer. That said, there is no reason Mcnabb healthy is top three or even tops either. Which is ultimately the point I think. I just can't elevate a guy who turned it over nearly 30! times last year as being mentioned in the same breath as these guys, unless there is no penalty for turnovers, which only helps the other guys too.

Honestly, if McNabb plays in 13 games, I think its pretty much a lock that he outproduces Kitna in 16. With penalties for turnovers, mcnabb almost outproduced him in 10 games... Of course, him staying healthy isn't a lock. However, his injuries have all been different and somewhat freaky, so wile he is injury-prone, its not like its always concussions or ankles, etc.
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Re: My QB rankings with 2006 stats

Postby PapaPark » Wed Jul 04, 2007 1:40 pm

Kitna's name has been thrown around a lot the last several weeks. Even after we did our listing his name still surfaces as a QB1 and potential sleeper.

It was hard for us to push McNabb down the list so our way of saying we aren't completely sold on DNabb was to put Kitna in front of him.

We'll see as the season plays out but thanks so far for all the comments.
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Re: My QB rankings with 2006 stats

Postby PapaPark » Thu Jul 12, 2007 8:57 pm

Just didnt want this to be dropped to the bottom.
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