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That second group of WRs

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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby Stelly » Mon Jul 02, 2007 1:54 pm

I feel left out in the love for J. Walker. He had a lot of dud games last year, and working with a second year QB scares me. I'd feel more comfortable with a guy like Housh or Driver over Walker, just becasue of his situation. I'd rather draft a guy who is more consistent and has a, established QB getting him the ball.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby Timbathia » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:47 pm

Stelly wrote:I feel left out in the love for J. Walker. He had a lot of dud games last year, and working with a second year QB scares me. I'd feel more comfortable with a guy like Housh or Driver over Walker, just becasue of his situation. I'd rather draft a guy who is more consistent and has a, established QB getting him the ball.


I am not saying you are wrong, but Denver's passing attack last year was a touch unusual in that Shanny wouldnt let Plummer throw the ball cause he was sucking so hard, and then a rookie took over with 5 games to go (and it was Walker's first year in that offense). I really think that Walker will get the ball put in his hands a lot of times each game this year and wouldnt be surprised to see him top ten.

I seem to have a lot more love for Evans than most this year. This is the first time that JP gets to run a 'non-new' offense this year, and having that continuity from last season (where he really started to show he understood how to play in it) should mean more consistent production from Evans. Evans should be used used more and more like the Panthers use SSmith, with the Bills getting him the ball in a variety of situations (not just deep) to try and make things happen - as they started too last season.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby FF Newbie » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:17 pm

I like Evans and might move him up a tad in my rankings, but CJ and Evans get bumped down a bit in my rankings for being SO feast and famine last year. I realize that is true of every receiver to a certain extent, but it seemed even more so for those two guys.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby Stelly » Tue Jul 03, 2007 8:45 am

Timbathia wrote:
Stelly wrote:I feel left out in the love for J. Walker. He had a lot of dud games last year, and working with a second year QB scares me. I'd feel more comfortable with a guy like Housh or Driver over Walker, just becasue of his situation. I'd rather draft a guy who is more consistent and has a, established QB getting him the ball.


I am not saying you are wrong, but Denver's passing attack last year was a touch unusual in that Shanny wouldnt let Plummer throw the ball cause he was sucking so hard, and then a rookie took over with 5 games to go (and it was Walker's first year in that offense). I really think that Walker will get the ball put in his hands a lot of times each game this year and wouldnt be surprised to see him top ten.

I seem to have a lot more love for Evans than most this year. This is the first time that JP gets to run a 'non-new' offense this year, and having that continuity from last season (where he really started to show he understood how to play in it) should mean more consistent production from Evans. Evans should be used used more and more like the Panthers use SSmith, with the Bills getting him the ball in a variety of situations (not just deep) to try and make things happen - as they started too last season.


Very good points about Walker, I had forgotten how bad Plummer was playing! Thanks!

I do agree with you on Evans. If you look at his stats in the second half, he had very consistent fantasy scoring down the stretch. He and Losman got some chemistry working. The Bills are running the same offense with an improved O-line (it couldn't really get worse...).
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby joelamosobadiah » Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:30 pm

Andre Johnson's value is significantly higher if its a PPR league I think. 103 receptions last year and even with a QB change I like him much better in PPR. ;-D
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby VHawk15 » Wed Jul 04, 2007 3:44 pm

Why is everyone low on Evans because of his QB situation, but high on Walker despite his? Evans second-half numbers last year projected over a full season are 90 catches for 1726 yards and 14 TD's. The reason was that Losman started gaining confidence and getting in sync with his top receiver.

On the other hand, Javon Walker averaged 46 receiving yards a game and caught a total of only 18 passes over the five-game span which Jay Cutler was under center. It wasn't Plummer who failed to get the ball to Walker.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby Free Bagel » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:33 pm

Good idea for a thread. I don't necessarily agree with the tier as I'd probably put Boldin, Moss, and CJ behind some of the guys listed here, but I'll just focus on the guys listed here. Here's what I've got:

1) Roy Williams - Probably shouldn't be included in this discussion. If Wayne, Boldin, and Moss are all regarded as above the tier being discussed here, Roy should be too as I've got him right around equal with Wayne and ahead of those other guys. Probably the best raw talent of the group here (with AJ probably being the only one that can contend in that category), and one of the best situations as well. Leaps and bounds above the rest of these guys.

2) Marques Colston - You've seen my thoughts on him in the other thread. This guy was a top 3 PPG WR when healthy, right up there with the likes of Steve Smith, Terrell Owens et all and miles ahead of guys like Chad Johnson. He's already done through 3/4's of a season what many of the guys on this list have as their perfect-world dream potential, and he was only a rookie. People worry that we'll see a decline now that defenses can focus on him, but with all the crazy weapons in New Orleans defenses can't afford to focus on any one player. The projected stats of many of the guys in this discussion are Colston's downside IMHO, and his upside is a top 3 WR - which really only he and Roy have from this bunch.

3) Donald Driver - The most underrated player in fantasy football, period. People love to make new excuses as to why this guy is going to stop being a top 10 WR every year, and most of the ones drawn up nowadays have already been played out before. Up and coming WR Jennings? Hmmm...I recall a certain up and comer named Javon Walker that was leagues better at the time than anyone can imagine Jennings being this year and Driver still produced. Erratic, aging QB? Uh, what Green Bay team have you guys been watching the last 3 years? Since when is this a new thing? He's had it before, and continued to produce. A somewhat limited upside (he's unlikely to finish top 3) is all that keeps him behind the two above him.

4) TJ Houshmandzadeh - It is absolutely absurd to me that people have CJ ranked where he is and Housh ranked where he is. When the two are on the field, Housh is the better (FF) WR to own. The only advantage CJ has is that Housh has missed a couple games each of the last two years, but that is not nearly enough to make CJ a top 3 WR and Housh discussed in this tier. Quite honestly, if CJ were involved in this discussion I'm not sure I would have him ranked higher than this. If trade value were not an issue, I'd rather have Housh.

5) Lee Evans - I'm really struggling with where to put Evans. He had a GREAT year last year, but he just seems like he has that 'one and done' type bust potential to me. That said, Buffalo looks to be improving so I don't see any tangible reason for an Evans dropoff - it's just a feeling.

6) Javon Walker - I am really surprised many people have this guy ranked as highly as they do. I guess people are REALLY banking on him making a big leap back forward this year. The whole Colston thread was started on the premise that he was ranked around guys like Walker and AJ despite "only" putting up 1000/8 in 12 games, yet Walker put up that same 1000/8 in a full 16 games, which is quite a bit worse. He did add another 100+/1 rushing which could bring it up to 1100+/9, but consider that he had 200/3 in one game, leaving him with 900/6 in his other 15 games which places him far behind most of the other guys in this tier. While he did seem to improve on his PPG when Cutler stepped in, he still never had either 100yds receiving or a multiple TD game with Cutler at the helm.

7) Andre Johnson - Unlimited upside, unlimited downside are the name of the game here. AJ and Roy are far ahead of the rest of this group in terms of raw talent, but AJ remains stuck in the pithole of Houston. Is Schaub any better than Carr, or is the O-line the real limiting factor here? This could decide the fate of many AJ owners...

8) Plaxico Burress - A nice redzone target, but I don't think he'll ever be the yardage guy that any of these others will, which severely limits his consistency.

9) Laveraneus Coles - Should be good for 1000/9, but limited upside.

10) Darrell Jackson - Never put up better than OK numbers in a good offense. Situation looks to be getting even worse in San Fran, thought they do appear to be on the rist.

11) Santana Moss - The epitome of boom or bust. 1300/10 or 600/3. We don't have a huge history of Al Saunders' offense, but in KC the WRs were an afterthought. I've got to think the RBs will be the main beneficiary here, with Cooley coming in next and then finally the WRs. Moss has a lot of upside, but you have to draft him onto a roster with an immediate replacement because his bust potential is so high, which severely limits his value compared to the rest of these guys.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby Timbathia » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:21 pm

VHawk15 wrote:Why is everyone low on Evans because of his QB situation, but high on Walker despite his? Evans second-half numbers last year projected over a full season are 90 catches for 1726 yards and 14 TD's. The reason was that Losman started gaining confidence and getting in sync with his top receiver.

On the other hand, Javon Walker averaged 46 receiving yards a game and caught a total of only 18 passes over the five-game span which Jay Cutler was under center. It wasn't Plummer who failed to get the ball to Walker.


Maybe I am high on Walker cause I am a homer......

That being said - Denver know that he is the most talented player on their offense. He is better than any other receiver and better than Henry. Plummer was all over the place when he was at the helm last year, and when Cutler was there at the end it was a pretty limited playbook (hence the TE numbers looked fantastic). If you believe the the Broncos running game will be solid this year, then you have to believe that there will be a lot of chances for Cutler to try and put the ball in Walkers hand. Not only is Walker more talented than the other receivers, he is faster too. That mean he gets the ball when they need a first down, and when they are looking to take a deep strike down field.

You obviously have to make some assumptions when you are projecting a guys stats. We all make slightly different ones which shows in these threads. This year I say Cutler and Losman are pretty good - and I think it will reflect in their #1 WRs numbers.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby Daddymike59 » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:54 pm

FF Newbie wrote:I don't 100% agree with your first tier as I have some of your first tier guys in my 2nd tier. My rankings look roughly like this (still fine tuning at this point):

Smith
TO
Harrison
Holt
CJ

Wayne
Roy
Colston
Walker
Fitz
Boldin
Housh
Driver
AJ
Evans
R. Moss

Burress
Coles
S. Moss
Jackson
I also have several others in this tier which you didn't mention: Ward, Reggie Brown, Edwards and Branch to name a few.

I have Fitz and Boldin ranked a little lower than most because they have to share catches and still have a 2nd-year QB throwing to them and Edge will likely score quite a few more touchdowns this year. I don't know if there is enough offense in Arizona to make Edge a 2nd-rounder and Fitz and Boldin early/mid 3rd-rounders. Harrison/Wayne and CJ/Housh are top WR pairs, but Leinart isn't at Manning's and Palmer's level yet, so I would drop Fitz and Boldin down a few spots from where most people have them. I'm also a tad higher on Colston than most and a little lower on AJ and Randy Moss.


Colston,Walker above Fitz? Santana below Burress? AJ above Moss? I'd really tweak were I you, FFNewbie
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby FF Newbie » Thu Jul 05, 2007 3:07 am

Daddymike59 wrote:Colston,Walker above Fitz? Santana below Burress? AJ above Moss? I'd really tweak were I you, FFNewbie


Yes, Colston above Fitz and Burress ahead of Santana (no doubt). I would probably move Walker down a bit after the discussion here, but I am not as high on Fitz and Boldin this year as others seem to be. They both have tremendous talent and are great receivers, but I would rather have a player who is THE GUY (like Colston) or who has a better QB throwing to him (like Harrison, Wayne, CJ or Housh) than one of two WRs being thrown to by Matt Leinart. I had Walker a bit high, but I definitely wouldn't be moving either of the Mosses or Fitzgerald way up. So no, I don't think I have a lot of tweaking to do. As I said, my list was more of a rough idea and I still have some fine tuning to do. It will definitely be more refined by draft day. But right now, the only player I see that I would move significantly is Walker and I would move him down several spots. In reality, most of the WRs in that range are pretty close anyway and you can move them around a bit and not be horribly wrong either way. Right now, my list would probably look something like this:

Smith
TO
Harrison
Holt
CJ

Wayne
Roy
Colston
Fitz
Housh
Driver
Boldin
Evans

Walker
AJ
R. Moss

Burress
R. Brown
Ward
Coles
S. Moss
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