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That second group of WRs

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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby skibrett15 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 11:01 am

Ok, I'm going to jump back into the fray here. Here was my initial list.
Roy Williams
Marques Colston
Donald Driver
Lee Evans
Javon Walker
Santana Moss
T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Andre Johnson
Plaxico Burress
Right now these are the guys everyone disagrees on. And everyone likes Roy, so maybe leave him out of this. For some reason I expected a lot of "calvin johnson will hurt Roy" chatter which is why I left him out there in the first place.
VHawk brought up the point that Walker declined with Cutler. I'm not sure how relevant this was because I think what we saw was Cutler seeking out the players he had practiced with all year: Brandon Marshall and tony scheffler. Marshall had 18 of his 20 receptions with Cutler and 12 of 18 of Schefflers were with Cutler. These were second team guys who Cutler got his reps with and developed a rapport with. Cutler is a good QB with a good enough O-line to succeed. He will find Javon Walker. Also, Javon Walker is now FULLY HEALED from his ACL tear. Something not true of last season. As for Lee Evans and J.P. Losman, I think that rapport is real and will be evident next season.
Regardless, Those 4 are all really close in my book, but I just love the potential of Santana moss to be top 3. I can't see that in any of the other guys, not even Roy. A guy like Santana Moss going top 3 could win your league, especially since Moss is going SIGNIFICANTLY later than all the rest of these guys.
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Good idea for a thread. I don't necessarily agree with the tier as I'd probably put Boldin, Moss, and CJ behind some of the guys listed here, but I'll just focus on the guys listed here. Here's what I've got:




3) Donald Driver - The most underrated player in fantasy football, period. People love to make new excuses as to why this guy is going to stop being a top 10 WR every year, and most of the ones drawn up nowadays have already been played out before. Up and coming WR Jennings? Hmmm...I recall a certain up and comer named Javon Walker that was leagues better at the time than anyone can imagine Jennings being this year and Driver still produced. Erratic, aging QB? Uh, what Green Bay team have you guys been watching the last 3 years? Since when is this a new thing? He's had it before, and continued to produce. A somewhat limited upside (he's unlikely to finish top 3) is all that keeps him behind the two above him.

yep. Exactly. This guy is top 10.

4) TJ Houshmandzadeh - It is absolutely absurd to me that people have CJ ranked where he is and Housh ranked where he is. When the two are on the field, Housh is the better (FF) WR to own. The only advantage CJ has is that Housh has missed a couple games each of the last two years, but that is not nearly enough to make CJ a top 3 WR and Housh discussed in this tier. Quite honestly, if CJ were involved in this discussion I'm not sure I would have him ranked higher than this. If trade value were not an issue, I'd rather have Housh.

To let everyone know... housh missed 2 games. I did not realize this. ~1100 and 9 TDs is great for 14 games. Probably better than CJ, that I agree on. However, Now that Chris Henry is out for 8 games at least, Tab perry is gonna step in. Henry was as close to a CJ clone as there is, and Tab perry looks to me like the quick lav. coles T.J. housh type. That just muddles things up more in cincy. I like Housh below Lee Evans.


5) Lee Evans - I'm really struggling with where to put Evans. He had a GREAT year last year, but he just seems like he has that 'one and done' type bust potential to me. That said, Buffalo looks to be improving so I don't see any tangible reason for an Evans dropoff - it's just a feeling.

The Lee Evans dropoff feeling is strange since Evans has been progressing and moving into a no. 1 role. He had a mild dropoff after a great rookie season, but I think that can be attributed to moulds leaving and extra attention. Look for another great season as he and Losman gel.

11) Santana Moss - The epitome of boom or bust. 1300/10 or 600/3. We don't have a huge history of Al Saunders' offense, but in KC the WRs were an afterthought. I've got to think the RBs will be the main beneficiary here, with Cooley coming in next and then finally the WRs. Moss has a lot of upside, but you have to draft him onto a roster with an immediate replacement because his bust potential is so high, which severely limits his value compared to the rest of these guys.

Santana Moss has never had a 600/3 season since he's been fantasy relevant. Over 4 years his average is 1000 yards and over 7 TDs. As far as the Al Saunders thing... there's no Tony Gonzalez in Washington. Look at those 4000 yards of passing for Trent Green with saunders year in and year out and I have to think that Campbell is gonna find his best receiver often enough.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby mystykoekaki » Thu Jul 05, 2007 11:18 am

Here is my rankings for these WRs.

Roy Williams
Donald Driver
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Marques Colston
Plaxico Burress
Javon Walker
Santana Moss
Lee Evans
Andre Johnson
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby VHawk15 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:29 pm

Timbathia wrote:
VHawk15 wrote:Why is everyone low on Evans because of his QB situation, but high on Walker despite his? Evans second-half numbers last year projected over a full season are 90 catches for 1726 yards and 14 TD's. The reason was that Losman started gaining confidence and getting in sync with his top receiver.

On the other hand, Javon Walker averaged 46 receiving yards a game and caught a total of only 18 passes over the five-game span which Jay Cutler was under center. It wasn't Plummer who failed to get the ball to Walker.


You obviously have to make some assumptions when you are projecting a guys stats. We all make slightly different ones which shows in these threads. This year I say Cutler and Losman are pretty good - and I think it will reflect in their #1 WRs numbers.


Well, I'm not really making any assumptions. I just applied Evans second half stats to a full season.

While Losman seemed to be building chemistry with Evans, the Cutler/Walker connection left a lot to be desired. Javon posted great numbers at the beginning of last year, when Plummer looked him way several times per game. However, later in the season after Cutler took over the starting role, other targets emerged and Walker's production, like I mentioned, dropped off significantly.

In the last six weeks of the season, Walker managed only 24 receptions for 285 yards and 2 TD's. Brandon Marshall, who only emerged after Cutler took over, posted 17 receptions for 254 yards and 1 TD. And lastly, Tony Scheffler the TE, who also struggled before Cutler took over, had 12 receptions for 219 yards and 4 TD's.

So, my point is that while Javon could potentially build chemistry with Cutler in the offseason, it is hypocritical to rank Evans low because of questionable QB play and rank Walker high because the chemistry with his QB is electrifying.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 05, 2007 5:59 pm

skibrett15 wrote:Santana Moss has never had a 600/3 season since he's been fantasy relevant. Over 4 years his average is 1000 yards and over 7 TDs. As far as the Al Saunders thing... there's no Tony Gonzalez in Washington. Look at those 4000 yards of passing for Trent Green with saunders year in and year out and I have to think that Campbell is gonna find his best receiver often enough.


Well, 600/3 wasn't as much of a projection as an exaggerated way to say he would light it up or blow up in your face. However to be fair, the guy went for 790/6 last year and 138/3 of that came in one game, so he was pretty close the rest of the year. The guy put up 10 fantasy points in only 3 of 14 games last year. To say he was totally useless even as a WR3 last year is an understatement.

His average is 1000/7, yet he's never had a season really even close to that. It's always way better or way worse. I'm not as down on Santana as it probably seems by my posts, but we've clearly seen his horribly low downside, and we've seen it twice in the last 4 years.

And while it's true Cooley is no Gonzo, he's probably closer than many think. He put up 734/6 last year in his first year in a Saunders offense, and I can't see those numbers going anywhere but up for him.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby FF Newbie » Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:10 pm

Free Bagel wrote:Well, 600/3 wasn't as much of a projection as an exaggerated way to say he would light it up or blow up in your face. However to be fair, the guy went for 790/6 last year and 138/3 of that came in one game, so he was pretty close the rest of the year. The guy put up 10 fantasy points in only 3 of 14 games last year. To say he was totally useless even as a WR3 last year is an understatement.

I played against Moss the week he put up 138 and 3 last year. I also played against Wayne the week he scored 3 times and Ward the week he had 3.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby Daddymike59 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:28 pm

FF Newbie wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Well, 600/3 wasn't as much of a projection as an exaggerated way to say he would light it up or blow up in your face. However to be fair, the guy went for 790/6 last year and 138/3 of that came in one game, so he was pretty close the rest of the year. The guy put up 10 fantasy points in only 3 of 14 games last year. To say he was totally useless even as a WR3 last year is an understatement.

I played against Moss the week he put up 138 and 3 last year. I also played against Wayne the week he scored 3 times and Ward the week he had 3.


I played against Crumpler when he went for 3 BUT I also started him in another lg. I guess my point is sometimes you bite the bear sometimes the bite choo'
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby deluxe_247 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:34 pm

VHawk15 wrote:
While Losman seemed to be building chemistry with Evans, the Cutler/Walker connection left a lot to be desired. Javon posted great numbers at the beginning of last year, when Plummer looked him way several times per game. However, later in the season after Cutler took over the starting role, other targets emerged and Walker's production, like I mentioned, dropped off significantly.

In the last six weeks of the season, Walker managed only 24 receptions for 285 yards and 2 TD's. Brandon Marshall, who only emerged after Cutler took over, posted 17 receptions for 254 yards and 1 TD. And lastly, Tony Scheffler the TE, who also struggled before Cutler took over, had 12 receptions for 219 yards and 4 TD's.

So, my point is that while Javon could potentially build chemistry with Cutler in the offseason, it is hypocritical to rank Evans low because of questionable QB play and rank Walker high because the chemistry with his QB is electrifying.



im not super high on either guy, but as far as the losman/ cutler argument i can see where people are coming from. i think cutler has a much higher ceiling than losman, and that translates into ranking his top WR higher a lot of the time..

losman has pretty much showed us what he is made of already, and the bills lost the most important piece of their offense in mcgahee...who will be replaced by a rookie. that doesnt sit well for me when im judging a QB who i already didnt regard as very good. now instead of keying on mcgahee and evans...they just have evans to worry about.

cutler on the other hand, in his first games in the nfl, showed much more potential than losman has to be a top 10 calibre QB. i can look past the fact that he didnt give walker that many looks because he had just stepped in. as he learns the ropes this offseason im pretty confident he will build chemistry with the most talented WR they have.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby VHawk15 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:27 am

deluxe_247 wrote:losman has pretty much showed us what he is made of already, and the bills lost the most important piece of their offense in mcgahee...who will be replaced by a rookie. that doesnt sit well for me when im judging a QB who i already didnt regard as very good. now instead of keying on mcgahee and evans...they just have evans to worry about.


McGahee was nearly a nonfactor last year for the Buffalo offense. He was consistently getting stuffed with only six or seven guys in the box, and by the end of the year (when Losman/Evans really started lighting it up), he basically wasn't trying. He has admitted that his motivation was low, which was evident by his dismal 3.8 YPC average.

Evans posted the best stats when McGahee's carries were limited and Buffalo's defense struggled. Looking back at the stats, there's an inverse relationship in McGahee's carries and Evans' production. For instance, Evans best game came in Week 11 (eleven catches for 265 yards and 2 TD's) when McGahee was inactive with a rib injury. The conclusion is that Evans thrives in an offense where the running game is struggling, there's no legitimate #2 target, and he can get the maximum amount of looks. Javon Walker owners should be familiar with this concept, as Walker thrived in an offense with no legitimate #2 option and no legitimate running attack.

So, my conclusion is that while some bigger receivers do indeed prosper in an environment with many options, other receivers (Walker, Evans, Driver) perform best when they can be the center of attention.

deluxe_247 wrote:cutler on the other hand, in his first games in the nfl, showed much more potential than losman has to be a top 10 calibre QB. i can look past the fact that he didnt give walker that many looks because he had just stepped in. as he learns the ropes this offseason im pretty confident he will build chemistry with the most talented WR they have


I think you may have some misconceptions about Losman's season. He has a 62.5% completion percentage, which was 9th best in the league and a QB rating of 85.0, which was 11th best in the league.
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby ROYALWITCHEESE » Fri Jul 06, 2007 2:05 am

FF Newbie wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:Well, 600/3 wasn't as much of a projection as an exaggerated way to say he would light it up or blow up in your face. However to be fair, the guy went for 790/6 last year and 138/3 of that came in one game, so he was pretty close the rest of the year. The guy put up 10 fantasy points in only 3 of 14 games last year. To say he was totally useless even as a WR3 last year is an understatement.

I played against Moss the week he put up 138 and 3 last year. I also played against Wayne the week he scored 3 times and Ward the week he had 3.


Me too! And Holt when he had 3! Needless to say I missed the playoffs! :-{
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Re: That second group of WRs

Postby deluxe_247 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:57 am

VHawk15 wrote:
deluxe_247 wrote:losman has pretty much showed us what he is made of already, and the bills lost the most important piece of their offense in mcgahee...who will be replaced by a rookie. that doesnt sit well for me when im judging a QB who i already didnt regard as very good. now instead of keying on mcgahee and evans...they just have evans to worry about.


McGahee was nearly a nonfactor last year for the Buffalo offense. He was consistently getting stuffed with only six or seven guys in the box, and by the end of the year (when Losman/Evans really started lighting it up), he basically wasn't trying. He has admitted that his motivation was low, which was evident by his dismal 3.8 YPC average.

Evans posted the best stats when McGahee's carries were limited and Buffalo's defense struggled. Looking back at the stats, there's an inverse relationship in McGahee's carries and Evans' production. For instance, Evans best game came in Week 11 (eleven catches for 265 yards and 2 TD's) when McGahee was inactive with a rib injury. The conclusion is that Evans thrives in an offense where the running game is struggling, there's no legitimate #2 target, and he can get the maximum amount of looks. Javon Walker owners should be familiar with this concept, as Walker thrived in an offense with no legitimate #2 option and no legitimate running attack.

So, my conclusion is that while some bigger receivers do indeed prosper in an environment with many options, other receivers (Walker, Evans, Driver) perform best when they can be the center of attention.

deluxe_247 wrote:cutler on the other hand, in his first games in the nfl, showed much more potential than losman has to be a top 10 calibre QB. i can look past the fact that he didnt give walker that many looks because he had just stepped in. as he learns the ropes this offseason im pretty confident he will build chemistry with the most talented WR they have


I think you may have some misconceptions about Losman's season. He has a 62.5% completion percentage, which was 9th best in the league and a QB rating of 85.0, which was 11th best in the league.


i respect where you are coming from on this...but i still dont buy it completely. regardless of how mcgahee performed last year defenses still respected him a lot more than they will respect lynch this year IMO. i also dont think the bills line has improved at all, which is just another reason to doubt losman doing better than last season. his completion percentage is decent, but for example is still lower than mcnairs...which is a guy i consider to be in a similiar situation. he also has a low ceiling. passing percentage and QB rating doesnt always translate into good fantasy performance. i would not only bet on cutler outperforming both losman and mcnair, but that evans numbers are slighty less than this last seasons.

again...i dont dislike evans, but i im not super fond of the bills offense, especially without mcgahee. denver has a better line and better running game to balance it out. when chosing between the two, ill lean towards walker.
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