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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby sportsaddict » Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:27 pm

mystykoekaki wrote:A strong part of me desperately wants to trust Portis but my mind tells me to stay away. I seriously wouldn't draft Portis unless I can pick him up well after his ADP.


That's kind of how I feel. But if he was there in the 2nd round I'd consider... I'm just not as confident about Portis as many on here are.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby FF Newbie » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:02 am

Free Bagel wrote:For the TDs, I was counting the 7 games he started and finished. I didn't include the game where he broke his hand in the 1st quarter, but as you said even if we include that it's still a pretty impressive pace.

And again, we're talking about an absolute downside here when he's playing.

I like Portis this year and I think he's a great value at the end of the 2nd, but I totally disagree with this. One touchdown/game is by no means his "downside." Portis scored 18 TDs in 31 previous games with Washington, so his downside (which, by definition, is less than his average) is closer to 0.4 or 0.5 TDs/game. I don't see him maintaining a 1 score/game pace for the entire season in that offense, even if he stays healthy. Taking his best 7 games as a Redskin scoring-wise and calling that his "downside" isn't a very viable argument, imo.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:20 am

FF Newbie wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:For the TDs, I was counting the 7 games he started and finished. I didn't include the game where he broke his hand in the 1st quarter, but as you said even if we include that it's still a pretty impressive pace.

And again, we're talking about an absolute downside here when he's playing.

I like Portis this year and I think he's a great value at the end of the 2nd, but I totally disagree with this. One touchdown/game is by no means his "downside." Portis scored 18 TDs in 31 previous games with Washington, so his downside (which, by definition, is less than his average) is closer to 0.4 or 0.5 TDs/game. I don't see him maintaining a 1 score/game pace for the entire season in that offense, even if he stays healthy. Taking his best 7 games as a Redskin scoring-wise and calling that his "downside" isn't a very viable argument, imo.


Actually, I would agree more with FB here. I don't think that necessarily 1 TD a game is his downside, but .4 or .5 TDs a game (which amounts to about 6-8 TDs) is pretty low I think. Remember, last year was the first year with offensive coordinator Al Saunders there and the Washington run offense really played well. Things were already improving the year before where Portis managed to get 11 TDs and with it being the second year under Saunders, you can expect things to only get better for the Washington running game. I would not be surprised in the least to see Portis get around 16 total TDs next year. You gotta keep in mind that this guy did score 7 TDs in 7 starts with an injured shoulder, you gotta believe he's got a reasonable shot of matching that when he's healthy this year.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby FF Newbie » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:29 am

mattb47 wrote:
FF Newbie wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:For the TDs, I was counting the 7 games he started and finished. I didn't include the game where he broke his hand in the 1st quarter, but as you said even if we include that it's still a pretty impressive pace.

And again, we're talking about an absolute downside here when he's playing.

I like Portis this year and I think he's a great value at the end of the 2nd, but I totally disagree with this. One touchdown/game is by no means his "downside." Portis scored 18 TDs in 31 previous games with Washington, so his downside (which, by definition, is less than his average) is closer to 0.4 or 0.5 TDs/game. I don't see him maintaining a 1 score/game pace for the entire season in that offense, even if he stays healthy. Taking his best 7 games as a Redskin scoring-wise and calling that his "downside" isn't a very viable argument, imo.


Actually, I would agree more with FB here. I don't think that necessarily 1 TD a game is his downside, but .4 or .5 TDs a game (which amounts to about 6-8 TDs) is pretty low I think. Remember, last year was the first year with offensive coordinator Al Saunders there and the Washington run offense really played well. Things were already improving the year before where Portis managed to get 11 TDs and with it being the second year under Saunders, you can expect things to only get better for the Washington running game. I would not be surprised in the least to see Portis get around 16 total TDs next year. You gotta keep in mind that this guy did score 7 TDs in 7 starts with an injured shoulder, you gotta believe he's got a reasonable shot of matching that when he's healthy this year.

Matt, it actually sounds like you agree with me. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 16 TDs next year either. He certainly has a reasonable shot, but that's a far cry from saying that's his "downside." Free Bagel said 1 TD/game is Portis' downside, when healthy. If that's his downside, then you have to expect 20-25 TDs from him next year and I don't expect that at all. We are also in total agreement that 0.4 or 0.5 scores a game (7 or 8 TDs on the year) is "pretty low." That's why I call that his downside. I think stating that his "downside" is 16 touchdowns is badly mistaken. And this is coming from someone who likes Portis this year and thinks he is a great value where he's being taken now at the end of the 2nd round.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby moochman » Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:02 am

mattb47 wrote:
moochman wrote:I love Portis's potential at where he is being drafted, but there is some risk with him. He has been dinged up the last couple seasons and is still recovering from his shoulder and a leg (patella tendon?) injury isn't he? I think the talk of getting Betts more involved could be a real threat to Portis's redzone chances and general production.


I don't know that Betts will ever be a threat to Portis's redzone chances....he's not really a power back at all and Portis has proved to be very efficient at scoring TDs himself over his NFL career.


I guess my thought here is that since Portis has been getting banged up the last couple years they may save him from the goalline pounding.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:30 am

FF Newbie wrote:Matt, it actually sounds like you agree with me. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 16 TDs next year either. He certainly has a reasonable shot, but that's a far cry from saying that's his "downside." Free Bagel said 1 TD/game is Portis' downside, when healthy. If that's his downside, then you have to expect 20-25 TDs from him next year and I don't expect that at all. We are also in total agreement that 0.4 or 0.5 scores a game (7 or 8 TDs on the year) is "pretty low." That's why I call that his downside. I think stating that his "downside" is 16 touchdowns is badly mistaken. And this is coming from someone who likes Portis this year and thinks he is a great value where he's being taken now at the end of the 2nd round.


OK, you misunderstood. By "pretty low", I mean it's not going to happen. Meaning it's below his "downside". His downside this year (barring injury of course) is double digit TDs in my opinion. I don't think you'll see him get any lower than that unless some freak type injury happens and he misses a substantial part of the year. Downside is the lowest you'll likely see him perform, and I think 7 or 8 TDs is below what his range will be next year TD wise.

moochman wrote:I guess my thought here is that since Portis has been getting banged up the last couple years they may save him from the goalline pounding.


Well, my thought here is that when it comes to something as important as goal line carries for a team. They will want the best guy taking those carries as possible. If they want to save him some pounding, they'll do it other times, not when they're trying to put points on the board.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:56 am

Thing is, what worries me as well as many others about Portis, is how early you would need to draft Betts to lock him up.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby moochman » Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:14 pm

mattb47 wrote:
moochman wrote:I guess my thought here is that since Portis has been getting banged up the last couple years they may save him from the goalline pounding.


Well, my thought here is that when it comes to something as important as goal line carries for a team. They will want the best guy taking those carries as possible. If they want to save him some pounding, they'll do it other times, not when they're trying to put points on the board.


You are probably right, but doesn't the contract they gave to Betts indicate a high level of trust in his abilities?
One thing is certain, I will be watching closely to see how Portis looks and is used in exhibition games.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby northcuttfan » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:09 pm

i wouldnt draft betts with my 6th round pick when i can get a solid starter in carnell , or ahman green ,
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:26 pm

moochman wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
moochman wrote:I guess my thought here is that since Portis has been getting banged up the last couple years they may save him from the goalline pounding.


Well, my thought here is that when it comes to something as important as goal line carries for a team. They will want the best guy taking those carries as possible. If they want to save him some pounding, they'll do it other times, not when they're trying to put points on the board.


You are probably right, but doesn't the contract they gave to Betts indicate a high level of trust in his abilities?
One thing is certain, I will be watching closely to see how Portis looks and is used in exhibition games.


But even a high level of trust doesn't really mean anything about goal line carries. Plain fact of the matter is that Portis is just a better goal line back than Betts is. Betts is a better receiver out of the backfield and such, but he's not going to be taking anything in the way of goal line touches from him most likely.
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