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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby VHawk15 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:37 pm

northcuttfan wrote:i wouldnt draft betts with my 6th round pick when i can get a solid starter in carnell , or ahman green ,


That's ridiculous. What ADP numbers are you looking at?

In 10-team leagues, Betts' ADP is mid-late 9th round (I've also seen 8th and 10th), according to antsports. In contrast, you'd be lucky to get Ahman and Cadillac in the 6th round. I have no problem taking Betts over Eli Manning, Bernard Berrian, Tatum Bell, or Michael Turner.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby skibrett15 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 2:20 pm

VHawk15 wrote:
northcuttfan wrote:i wouldnt draft betts with my 6th round pick when i can get a solid starter in carnell , or ahman green ,


That's ridiculous. What ADP numbers are you looking at?

In 10-team leagues, Betts' ADP is mid-late 9th round (I've also seen 8th and 10th), according to antsports. In contrast, you'd be lucky to get Ahman and Cadillac in the 6th round. I have no problem taking Betts over Eli Manning, Bernard Berrian, Tatum Bell, or Michael Turner.

Betts vs. Tatum Bell might be a pickle depending on your RB depth. Tatum could be a full time starter (although if that's declared he'll go much higher in drafts). I think he's going off the fact that I said he's a 6th round choice if you want to lock him up with portis. I was thinking of my 14 team league which I neglected to mention. Betts is a 9th round type guy. Maybe go a little earlier if you have portis already.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri Jul 06, 2007 3:46 pm

skibrett15 wrote:
VHawk15 wrote:
northcuttfan wrote:i wouldnt draft betts with my 6th round pick when i can get a solid starter in carnell , or ahman green ,


That's ridiculous. What ADP numbers are you looking at?

In 10-team leagues, Betts' ADP is mid-late 9th round (I've also seen 8th and 10th), according to antsports. In contrast, you'd be lucky to get Ahman and Cadillac in the 6th round. I have no problem taking Betts over Eli Manning, Bernard Berrian, Tatum Bell, or Michael Turner.

Betts vs. Tatum Bell might be a pickle depending on your RB depth. Tatum could be a full time starter (although if that's declared he'll go much higher in drafts). I think he's going off the fact that I said he's a 6th round choice if you want to lock him up with portis. I was thinking of my 14 team league which I neglected to mention. Betts is a 9th round type guy. Maybe go a little earlier if you have portis already.


Exactly, Betts is well worth an 8th round pick if you have Portis already. If you don't have Portis, he probably isn't worth that much. Therefore, he shouldn't be too hard to handcuff.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby FF Newbie » Fri Jul 06, 2007 5:40 pm

mattb47 wrote:
FF Newbie wrote:Matt, it actually sounds like you agree with me. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 16 TDs next year either. He certainly has a reasonable shot, but that's a far cry from saying that's his "downside." Free Bagel said 1 TD/game is Portis' downside, when healthy. If that's his downside, then you have to expect 20-25 TDs from him next year and I don't expect that at all. We are also in total agreement that 0.4 or 0.5 scores a game (7 or 8 TDs on the year) is "pretty low." That's why I call that his downside. I think stating that his "downside" is 16 touchdowns is badly mistaken. And this is coming from someone who likes Portis this year and thinks he is a great value where he's being taken now at the end of the 2nd round.


OK, you misunderstood. By "pretty low", I mean it's not going to happen. Meaning it's below his "downside". His downside this year (barring injury of course) is double digit TDs in my opinion. I don't think you'll see him get any lower than that unless some freak type injury happens and he misses a substantial part of the year. Downside is the lowest you'll likely see him perform, and I think 7 or 8 TDs is below what his range will be next year TD wise.

10 touchdowns is still a far cry from 16. I think putting his "downside" at 8 is just about right. Even if you think he'll score more than that (so do I, but that's why it's his "downside," afterall), it's pretty tough to argue that he can't possibly score less than 16 TDs if he plays the whole year. That's simply not true.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 6:29 pm

FF Newbie wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
FF Newbie wrote:Matt, it actually sounds like you agree with me. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 16 TDs next year either. He certainly has a reasonable shot, but that's a far cry from saying that's his "downside." Free Bagel said 1 TD/game is Portis' downside, when healthy. If that's his downside, then you have to expect 20-25 TDs from him next year and I don't expect that at all. We are also in total agreement that 0.4 or 0.5 scores a game (7 or 8 TDs on the year) is "pretty low." That's why I call that his downside. I think stating that his "downside" is 16 touchdowns is badly mistaken. And this is coming from someone who likes Portis this year and thinks he is a great value where he's being taken now at the end of the 2nd round.


OK, you misunderstood. By "pretty low", I mean it's not going to happen. Meaning it's below his "downside". His downside this year (barring injury of course) is double digit TDs in my opinion. I don't think you'll see him get any lower than that unless some freak type injury happens and he misses a substantial part of the year. Downside is the lowest you'll likely see him perform, and I think 7 or 8 TDs is below what his range will be next year TD wise.

10 touchdowns is still a far cry from 16. I think putting his "downside" at 8 is just about right. Even if you think he'll score more than that (so do I, but that's why it's his "downside," afterall), it's pretty tough to argue that he can't possibly score less than 16 TDs if he plays the whole year. That's simply not true.


I'm not arguing that he can't possibly score fewer than 16 TDs if he plays the whole year....so arguing that point any further really is rather ridiculous at this point. And I'm putting his "downside" at 10, at the very least, which I really think he'll do far better than quite honestly. He scored 7 TDs, while injured (to his shoulder no less which I'm sure others can also tell you how important that shoulder is when trying to plow ahead at the goal line), in only 7 games that he really played a decent amount. Maybe you don't remember how good Portis is when he's healthy without a recently dislocated shoulder, but I do....and if an injured Portis can put up those kinds of numbers, a non-injured Portis can probably beat that out pretty easily over a 16 game span rather than the 7 he played last year. His "downside" is the lowest possible that you think he'll score....if you think he really doesn't have much of a chance of scoring 7 or 8 TDs, then you don't see that as his downside.
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby FF Newbie » Fri Jul 06, 2007 6:48 pm

mattb47 wrote:I'm not arguing that he can't possibly score fewer than 16 TDs if he plays the whole year....so arguing that point any further really is rather ridiculous at this point. And I'm putting his "downside" at 10, at the very least, which I really think he'll do far better than quite honestly.

Exactly, like I've been saying all along, we pretty much agree. Free Bagel put his downside at 16 touchdowns; you put it at 10; and I put it at 8. So the two of us are actually in much closer agreement than you and FB. I think he'll score more than 8, but that's why I called that his downside. If Portis plays the whole year, I see him racking up 10-14 TDs with a chance to either slightly fall short of or exceed those numbers, thus I put his downside at 8 and his upside at 16. FB puts his downside at 16 and his upside at what, 24? 30?
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Re: the noble man named portis

Postby skibrett15 » Sat Jul 07, 2007 12:37 am

FF Newbie wrote:
mattb47 wrote:I'm not arguing that he can't possibly score fewer than 16 TDs if he plays the whole year....so arguing that point any further really is rather ridiculous at this point. And I'm putting his "downside" at 10, at the very least, which I really think he'll do far better than quite honestly.

Exactly, like I've been saying all along, we pretty much agree. Free Bagel put his downside at 16 touchdowns; you put it at 10; and I put it at 8. So the two of us are actually in much closer agreement than you and FB. I think he'll score more than 8, but that's why I called that his downside. If Portis plays the whole year, I see him racking up 10-14 TDs with a chance to either slightly fall short of or exceed those numbers, thus I put his downside at 8 and his upside at 16. FB puts his downside at 16 and his upside at what, 24? 30?

After what LT did I don't even know man. I think portis is due for ~46 TDs when completely healthy.








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Why don't all three of you just come to a consensus on his "upside" as opposed to his downside?
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