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Targets and Observations

Postby VHawk15 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:31 am

Here's a list of the top 20 (plus some notables) RB's and WR's in order of times they were targeted, their receptions, and the percent thereof. Observations follow.

RB's

1) Reggie Bush: 121-88-72.7%
2) Steven Jackson: 111-90-81.1%
3) Brian Westbrook: 109-77-70.6%
4) Frank Gore: 86-61-70.9%
5) Tiki Barber: 82-58-70.7%
6) LaDainian Tomlinson: 80-56-70.0%
7) Kevin Jones: 78-61-78.2%
8) Michael Pittman: 76-47-61.8%
9) Larry Johnson: 66-41-62.1%
10) Ladell Betts: 64-53-82.8%
11) Ahman Green: 64-46-71.9%
12) Mewelde Moore: 63-46-73.0%
13) Maurice Jones-Drew: 61-46-75.4%
14) Edgerrin James: 60-38-63.3%
15) Kevin Faulk: 56-43-76.8%
16) Chester Taylor: 51-42-82.4%
17) Joseph Addai: 50-40-80.0%
18) Thomas Jones: 47-36-76.6%
19) Dominic Rhodes: 46-36-78.3%
20) DeShaun Foster: 46-32-69.6%
21) Cadillac Williams: 43-30-69.8
23) Willie Parker: 41-31-75.6%
25) Ronnie Brown: 38-33-86.8%
28) DeAngelo Williams: 37-33-89.2%
37) Rudi Johnson: 31-23-74.2%
38) Laurence Maroney: 30-22-73.3%
44) Willis McGahee: 28-18-64.3%
47) Jamal Lewis: 26-18-69.2%
49) Clinton Portis- 26-17-65.4%

1) Ronnie Brown, Addai, and DeAngelo managed some pretty incredible reception percentages. If they are given more receiving opportunities this season, you could see all three of them in the top ten of this list.

2) Jamal Lewis and Willis McGahee will probably get yanked in 3rd down situations with their new teams. They are simply horrible receivers. Portis matched both of their reception totals in only seven games.

3) Speaking of Portis, Betts' reception numbers are quite impressive. Perhaps Washington plans to use Betts primarily in a 3rd down role this year.

4) If you combine the target numbers for Mewelde Moore and Chester Taylor, then they are collectively the most targeted runner besides Bush. Minnesota could continue this out-of-the-backfield offense with a weak QB and WR's this season.

5) Kevin Jones at #7 was a bit surprising for me. The Lions simply throw the ball a lot. If KJ ever gets healthy, he could be a decent contributor even in an RBBC because of his receiving skills.

6) LJ clearly lags behind the other members of the Big Four (along with S-Jax, LT, and Gore) when it comes to receiving skills. His reception rate is a mediocre 62.1%, and that number will likely go down with Brodie Croyle at the helm.


WR's

1) Torry Holt: 178-93-52.2%
2) Donald Driver: 171-92-53.8%
3) Andre Johnson: 165-103-62.4%
4) Chad Johnson: 154-87-56.5%
5) Chris Chambers: 154-59-38.3%
6) Roy Williams: 153-82-53.5%
7) Anquan Boldin: 152-83-54.6%
8) Laveranues Coles: 151-91-60.3%
9) Terrell Owens: 151-85-56.3%
10) Marvin Harrison: 148-95-64.2%
11) Mike Furrey: 146-98-67.1%
12) Joey Galloway: 142-62-43.7%
13) Steve Smith: 140-83-59.3%
14) Reggie Wayne: 137-86-62.8%
15) Lee Evans: 137-82-59.9%
16) T.J. Housmandzadeh: 133-90-67.7%
17) Keyshawn Johnson: 128-70-54.7%
18) Isaac Bruce: 126-74-58.7%
18) Hines Ward: 126-74-58.7%
20) Jerricho Cotchery: 125-82-65.6%
21) Javon Walker: 125-69-55.2%
22) Braylon Edwards: 123-61-49.6%
23) Plaxico Burress: 121-62-52.1%
25) Marques Colston: 115-70-60.9%
30) Larry Fitzgerald: 108-69-62.9%
45) Ronald Curry: 89-62-69.7%
46) Arnaz Battle: 87-59-67.8%

1) The gap between Boldin and Fitzgerald is intriguing. It is certainly clear than Boldin is then possession guy whereas Fitz is the downfield threat. Boldin owners could be optimistic that his mere 4 TD's was an aberration, and that his amount of targets compared to Fitz shows who the real #1 receiver is. Fitz owners may argue that this data proves that Fitz is the superior receiver, given the difference in percentages.

2) I included Curry and Battle's numbers because their percentage numbers were especially high compared to those receivers with similar reception target totals. I'm moving them up in my rankings, because if given more of an opportunity in 2007, they could definitely produce.

3) These numbers probably lend credence to those in the Housh>CJ camp, as Housh had more receptions than Ocho Cinco, but 20 less targets. Cotchery and Coles is a similar but less drastic situation.

4) Andre Johnson, despite his weaker QB play, sets himself apart in this list when it comes to percentage.

5) Peyton Manning truly knows how to get the ball to his receivers, as both Harrison and Wayne are near the top percentage-wise.

6) This data should be great news for Calvin Johnson owners, as it proves that the Lions pass the ball enough for both CJ and Roy to be productive. However, who would've thought that Mike Furrey would be a model of consistency for both CJ and Roy.

7) Colston owners should be optimistic, as Marques managed 115 looks (with a solid 61% reception rate) in only 12 games played. If you extrapolate that over 16 games, then Colston is a borderline top 5 receiver when it comes to targets, even with his teammate Reggie Bush garnering 121 targets out of the backfield.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby PapaPark » Fri Jul 06, 2007 5:22 am

Awesome.

Chris Chambers is simply horrible.

Look at that target rate and then his percentage. He was clearly getting the ball but he just can't catch.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby Free Bagel » Fri Jul 06, 2007 8:05 am

VHawk15 wrote:1) The gap between Boldin and Fitzgerald is intriguing. It is certainly clear than Boldin is then possession guy whereas Fitz is the downfield threat. Boldin owners could be optimistic that his mere 4 TD's was an aberration, and that his amount of targets compared to Fitz shows who the real #1 receiver is. Fitz owners may argue that this data proves that Fitz is the superior receiver, given the difference in percentages.


Fitz missed a handful of games to injury last year, hence the vast difference in targets.

PapaPark wrote:Awesome.

Chris Chambers is simply horrible.

Look at that target rate and then his percentage. He was clearly getting the ball but he just can't catch.


Apparently you've never met a guy named Joey Harrington, who had probably the worst downfield accuracy of any QB that played significant time last year. Doesn't exactly mesh well with a downfield receiver...
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby aaawall91 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 8:08 am

VHawk15 wrote:
6) LJ clearly lags behind the other members of the Big Four (along with S-Jax, LT, and Gore) when it comes to receiving skills. His reception rate is a mediocre 62.1%, and that number will likely go down with Brodie Croyle at the helm.



Thats because he doesn't want to catch, just like he doesn't want to block.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby PMoneyTKE » Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:36 am

Very nice write-up VHawk, I thought it was interesting to see Micheal Pittman towards the top of the list, think he's worth a late round pick in a PPR?
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby GreatestShowOnEarth » Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:36 am

PapaPark wrote:Awesome.

Chris Chambers is simply horrible.

Look at that target rate and then his percentage. He was clearly getting the ball but he just can't catch.


Daunte and Joey. nuff said.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby PapaPark » Fri Jul 06, 2007 2:01 pm

GreatestShowOnEarth wrote:
PapaPark wrote:Awesome.

Chris Chambers is simply horrible.

Look at that target rate and then his percentage. He was clearly getting the ball but he just can't catch.


Daunte and Joey. nuff said.


So what will be the excuse this year. Trent Green?

Oh wait...
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby thriftyrocker » Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:46 pm

3) These numbers probably lend credence to those in the Housh>CJ camp, as Housh had more receptions than Ocho Cinco, but 20 less targets. Cotchery and Coles is a similar but less drastic situation.


Really nice stats. But some of this analysis is questionable. Are you really saying TJ, Cotchery and Furrey are the best WRs in the NFL? Or are you saying they are good WRs facing the weaker CB and much less likely to be double or triple covered? CJ faces elite CBs in his division and is often doubled or tripled. Harrison having better numbers than Wayne is really the anomaly here and a testament to how great the Harrison/Peyton combo really is.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby Azrael » Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:28 pm

I think it shows that simply the 2nd WR choice on a team is not covered as well as the No. 1 WR and therefore is able to catch a bigger percentage of passes thrown his way. I really like Housh this year especially with Henry being out half the season. CJ gets all the attention but I can get a similar producing WR 2 rounds later.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby VHawk15 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:41 pm

thriftyrocker wrote:
3) These numbers probably lend credence to those in the Housh>CJ camp, as Housh had more receptions than Ocho Cinco, but 20 less targets. Cotchery and Coles is a similar but less drastic situation.


Really nice stats. But some of this analysis is questionable. Are you really saying TJ, Cotchery and Furrey are the best WRs in the NFL? Or are you saying they are good WRs facing the weaker CB and much less likely to be double or triple covered? CJ faces elite CBs in his division and is often doubled or tripled. Harrison having better numbers than Wayne is really the anomaly here and a testament to how great the Harrison/Peyton combo really is.


Not at all. I'm speaking strictly in terms of fantasy football here, not actual talent. I believe Chad Johnson to be an overall better receiver than Housh, but fantasy-wise, the latter may be a better pick, and is certainly better value.

Azrael is absolutely right. What these stats are a testament to is that it is simply harder to catch passes in double coverage.
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