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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby aaawall91 » Sat Jul 07, 2007 1:58 am

I'd just like to throw a piece of information out there that semi-relates to the topic...

CJ's average for the year: 10.75
Housh's average: 11.07 (didn't play weeks 1 and 2)

Chris Henry's best weeks: 3, 12, 17

Chads points for those 3 weeks: 1, 12, 5 for an average of 6. below average
Housh's: 21, 13, 4 for an average of 12.66. Above average.

But from this small sample it can be said Chad benefits from Henry being absent much greater than Hous does (if he benefits at all).
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby Free Bagel » Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:48 am

aaawall91 wrote:But from this small sample it can be said Chad benefits from Henry being absent much greater than Hous does (if he benefits at all).


On the contrary, that's not really what it's saying. It's saying more that Chad is hurt more by Henry having a big week, that's not the same thing.

Since we're using small sample sizes, if we want to determine who is effected more by Henry being gone we have exactly that same sample size to look for exactly that same thing as Henry missed 3 games last year. No need to stretch the other into something it's not when we have the exact measure we're looking for available to us.

In the games Henry missed:
Housh:
4rec 95yds
10rec 106yds 1td
4rec 49yds
Average: 6rec 83.3yds 0.33tds

CJ:
6rec 64yds
8rec 91yds
3rec 37yds
Average: 5.66rec 64yds 0tds

So, when Henry missed time Housh was better in every receiving category overall, and was better all 3 weeks that Henry was absent. How exactly does that lend to CJ having a "much greater" benefit from Henry being gone than Housh does again? If you mean to say that Henry being gone helps CJ a lot more than it does Housh, and he STILL performed worse than Housh every week that Henry missed, then why exactly are we talking about CJ going 2+ rounds before Housh, much less ahead of him at all?

In the same terms you defined it:
Housh's year-long avg: 10.75ppg
Housh without Henry: 10.3ppg

CJ's year-long avg: 11.07ppg
CJ without Henry: 6.4ppg
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby RudyBlue » Sat Jul 07, 2007 9:18 am

Vhawk, this is an incredibly good posting. Thanks for the info. It's helped me finally decide between Fitz and Boldin, for one thing. I'm going to print it out and keep it front and center while I'm drafting. Thank you very much for your hard work here.

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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby Azrael » Sat Jul 07, 2007 1:00 pm

RudyBlue wrote:Vhawk, this is an incredibly good posting. Thanks for the info. It's helped me finally decide between Fitz and Boldin, for one thing. I'm going to print it out and keep it front and center while I'm drafting. Thank you very much for your hard work here.

Blue


I believe this difference between Fitzgerald and Boldin is skewed because of 2 reasons. Fitzgerald missed almost 4 games due to an injury. And the injury coincided with just about the time Leinart began starting games for AZ. I would be interested to see what the targeting looked like the 7 games of the year that Fitz played with Leinart when he rang up 40 catches for 597 yards. While comparatively Boldin had 31 catches for 483 yards in that same span.

I hope that helps you decide between Fitz and Boldin :-D

I also completely forgot that Housh missed the first 2 games of the season. He's a darn steal in the 4th round now IMO.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby VHawk15 » Sat Jul 07, 2007 2:41 pm

Azrael wrote:I would be interested to see what the targeting looked like the 7 games of the year that Fitz played with Leinart when he rang up 40 catches for 597 yards. While comparatively Boldin had 31 catches for 483 yards in that same span.


I just did exactly that. In the games with Warner when both Fitzgerald and Boldin were healthy, Fitz had 33 targets to Boldin's 31. In the games with Leinart at QB when both Fitzgerald and Boldin were healthy, Boldin had 73 targets to Fitzgerald's 71. So, not too much of a difference whatsoever.

Additionally, it is interesting to mention that Boldin's targets blew up when Fitzgerald was out with the injury. This explains why, if you extrapolate Fitz's targets over a 16 game season, he is still about 20 targets short of Boldin.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby Santacruzer » Sun Jul 08, 2007 9:06 am

Azrael wrote:I would be interested to see what the targeting looked like the 7 games of the year that Fitz played with Leinart

Weeks 1 - 5
Boldin........Fitzgerald
9 - 4..........14 - 9
10 - 6.........7 - 4
11 - 10.......10 - 6
6 - 4...........4 - 3
6 - 4...........2 - 2
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42-28(67%)...37-24(65%)
Lienart started in week 4, and it shows.
Fitz missed weeks 6 - 8, and ARIZ had a bye week 9

Weeks 10 - 17
Boldin........Fitzgerald
5 - 2...........11 - 6
7 - 5...........4 - 2
15 - 9........15 - 11
8 - 2...........6 - 5
7 - 4..........12 - 7
9 - 5..........6 - 5
7 - 4..........7 - 4
5 - 4..........8 - 4
_________________
63-35(55.5%)..69-44(63.8%)

Totals head to head=
105-63(60.6%)..106-68(64.2%)

I can see why this can be so debatable with such close stats.....

Boldins numbers the 3 weeks that Fitz missed:
18 - 12 (CHI)
12 - 4 (OAK)
11 - 4 (GB)
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby Azrael » Mon Jul 09, 2007 11:34 am

It looks very close. The tiebreaker for me would be the TDs. It appears to me that Leinart was looking to Fitzgerald for the TDs. It's a small sample size but Fitz caught TDs in 4 out of the last 5 games. Boldin caught none. I also think the the 2nd DB is lining up on Fitzgerald because Leinart completion % was much greater to him.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby The_Dude » Mon Jul 09, 2007 8:01 pm

great stuff in here... I definitely learned something from this thread. ;-D
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby mattb47 » Mon Jul 09, 2007 8:13 pm

Azrael wrote:I also completely forgot that Housh missed the first 2 games of the season. He's a darn steal in the 4th round now IMO.


Yea, I think he's going to be fantastic this year. He's only gotten better each year he's played with Palmer and last year if you add in his averages for those last two games he would have finished with this stat line:

103 receptions (T-1st in NFL)
1235 yards (7th in NFL)
10 TDs (T-3rd in NFL)

Not too bad I don't think quite honestly....and most people don't really realize it I don't think.
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Re: Targets and Observations

Postby WickedSmaat » Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:55 pm

mattb47 wrote:
Azrael wrote:I also completely forgot that Housh missed the first 2 games of the season. He's a darn steal in the 4th round now IMO.


Yea, I think he's going to be fantastic this year. He's only gotten better each year he's played with Palmer and last year if you add in his averages for those last two games he would have finished with this stat line:

103 receptions (T-1st in NFL)
1235 yards (7th in NFL)
10 TDs (T-3rd in NFL)

Not too bad I don't think quite honestly....and most people don't really realize it I don't think.


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