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Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

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Which Dallas RB would you draft first this year? (Please post and explain your answer)

I would take Jones first
12
29%
I would take Barber first
22
54%
I'd draft them pretty much in the same spot
7
17%
 
Total votes : 41

Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:19 pm

Boom, you got me. Even better though, if I had the last overall pick it means 5/6 is cheaper.

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Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby Kilroy » Fri Jul 06, 2007 2:53 pm

I think considering their respective ADPs it's Jones that is the better value. Barber's going in the third or fourth, while Jones is usually taken at least two full rounds later. I just don't see Barber backing up last year's TD numbers, but it wouldn't surprise if JJ was able to duplicate last year's yardage total and tack on a few more scores.
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Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 3:53 pm

Yea, Jones is certainly the better value with where he is going in comparison to Barber but I like Jones better anyway this year actually. I really think Barber is unlikely to have the kind of year TD wise that he had last season because guys with limited carries and a lot of TDs rarely are able to duplicate that kind of production the next year. I think people forget just how talented a back Jones is and if used correctly by the new coaching staff, he could have a nice year.
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Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby FF Newbie » Fri Jul 06, 2007 5:36 pm

I see a lot of talk about Jones going way later in drafts than Barber and thus being the better value, but it seems to me that their draft positions are really evening out, like someone else mentioned. Barber is still being taken earlier (5.02 and 5.09 on FFC and Antsports, respectively), compared to 6.06 and 6.03 for Jones. On average, the two are separated by just one round right now, so it's pretty close. I think that reflects the general sentiment that either back could have the better year with Barber being seen as the slight favorite.
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Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby Kilroy » Fri Jul 06, 2007 6:03 pm

FF Newbie wrote:I see a lot of talk about Jones going way later in drafts than Barber and thus being the better value, but it seems to me that their draft positions are really evening out, like someone else mentioned. Barber is still being taken earlier (5.02 and 5.09 on FFC and Antsports, respectively), compared to 6.06 and 6.03 for Jones. On average, the two are separated by just one round right now, so it's pretty close. I think that reflects the general sentiment that either back could have the better year with Barber being seen as the slight favorite.


Barber's been off the board well before that in every mock and draft I've participated in so far this year.
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Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby FF Newbie » Fri Jul 06, 2007 6:39 pm

Kilroy1872 wrote:
FF Newbie wrote:I see a lot of talk about Jones going way later in drafts than Barber and thus being the better value, but it seems to me that their draft positions are really evening out, like someone else mentioned. Barber is still being taken earlier (5.02 and 5.09 on FFC and Antsports, respectively), compared to 6.06 and 6.03 for Jones. On average, the two are separated by just one round right now, so it's pretty close. I think that reflects the general sentiment that either back could have the better year with Barber being seen as the slight favorite.


Barber's been off the board well before that in every mock and draft I've participated in so far this year.

Yeah, right now Barber is going about a round or so before Jones (on average). Very early mocks had a much greater disparity between the two, but the gap has been narrowing. Do you disagree?
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Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby aaawall91 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:38 pm

I like Jones a lot more than Barber

-He has been steadily increasing his yardage numbers each year so far (819, 993, 1084) so the trend is promising

- He played a full season this year getting almost 300 carries, very promising, his durability has obviously steadily increased over the years going from 8 games with 192 attempts to 13 games and 257 carries to 16 games and 267. Although he only had a tad more carries this year than the past, he did still play each and every game, which is very promising and he should be even stronger and revved up for next season after not getting banged up as bad. And the biggest reason for this is because of the low amount of carries he got torwards the end of the season (roughly 11 carries a game) because of his being in the dog house or in the more recognized form
"Sometimes, no matter how much, it's not enough. I just disregard it. I'm trying to play the game. I'm not trying to satisfy."
Part of Parcell's response on 12/19 about Owens, Glenn, and Jones' gripe about lack of touches...

- Although his TD's have also steadily decreased, luck is a much bigger factor as to who gets the rock going into the end zone than what yardage is, and that doesn't worry me, because the biggest part that isn't luck is a maturing Barber under Parcells, while JJ became less favored, under the new coach Barber won't get the same favoritism.

-As I previously stated, Parcells favored MB3 because he was a more of a work-horse type back, the new coach (I think I've read this somewhere...) likes JJ better. So barber won't get those extra touches as he would under Parcells.

-JJ said he felt like he was running like a robot under Parcells. Parcells' play calls over the past few years gave him less and less of a chance to use his creativity that he showed flashes of his first year, and that is one of his biggest strengths as a RB, and he feels the new coach will gear the play calling much more to favor him and his strengths.

-The pass catching can't be that big of a difference between them, I haven't caught many Cowboy games as of late but heres the career averages for pass catching for both:
JJ- 20 catches a season for 156 yards and 0 TDS
MB3- 20 catches a season for 155 yards for 1 TD

What Fanball.com says:
Cowboys running back Julius Jones feels much more free to choose his running spots under Wade Phillips. "I think maybe I was being told where to run and not really able to use my instincts, and that's what got me here," Jones told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "Maybe I listened to coach (Bill) Parcells a little too much and was just kind of running like a robot." Jones spent the off season working out in Arizona in preparation for the fourth and final year of his rookie contract. "I think this system [allows] a back to have a little more freedom to make plays and do what I do," Jones added.

Our View
As a rookie, Jones looked like the next version of Emmitt Smith, but injuries quickly pushed him into Parcells' doghouse and Julius didn't look terribly comfortable in 2006. He'll continue to split carries with Marion Barber this year, but we have yet to hear anything definitive about how Phillips will use the two backs.Until we know better, Barber will be the better fantasy pick.

Although obviously I disagree with the last statement, this is all good info to support the JJ argument.
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Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby Kilroy » Fri Jul 06, 2007 9:58 pm

FF Newbie wrote:
Kilroy1872 wrote:
FF Newbie wrote:I see a lot of talk about Jones going way later in drafts than Barber and thus being the better value, but it seems to me that their draft positions are really evening out, like someone else mentioned. Barber is still being taken earlier (5.02 and 5.09 on FFC and Antsports, respectively), compared to 6.06 and 6.03 for Jones. On average, the two are separated by just one round right now, so it's pretty close. I think that reflects the general sentiment that either back could have the better year with Barber being seen as the slight favorite.


Barber's been off the board well before that in every mock and draft I've participated in so far this year.

Yeah, right now Barber is going about a round or so before Jones (on average). Very early mocks had a much greater disparity between the two, but the gap has been narrowing. Do you disagree?


Yeah, I kinda do. In the actual drafts I've been in so far (which is more than a few) Barber's been going closer to two rounds ahead of Jones than one, which is why I made my original statement.

I, personally, am wary of giving too much weight to the ADPs at Antsports, FCC, whatever. Too many people taking too many theories for too many test drives before "it counts" for me take them as gospel.
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Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby NittanyLions » Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:29 pm

I do agree that Parcells hindered JJ's ability to be of large value. The carries and yardage indicated to me he can be the man. I would stay away from the situation if possible. I also highly doubt Barber gets as many TDs as he did. I wouldn't count Barber out, but I have to believe JJ will produce under the new coach, and balance the TDs a little. If Barber doesn't match his TDs, which is likely, his value drops. If forced to decide between the two, I believe JJ is the better back.
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Re: Julius Jones vs. Marion Barber (Who has a better year?)

Postby FF Newbie » Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:51 am

Kilroy1872 wrote:Yeah, I kinda do. In the actual drafts I've been in so far (which is more than a few) Barber's been going closer to two rounds ahead of Jones than one, which is why I made my original statement.

I, personally, am wary of giving too much weight to the ADPs at Antsports, FCC, whatever. Too many people taking too many theories for too many test drives before "it counts" for me take them as gospel.

I personally am wary of assuming that everyone is "test driving" the exact same players and passing on others, just to try something different. The difference between Barber and Jones was 3-4 rounds after the end of the season and now it's down to 1-2 rounds, usually closer to one. In some cases, they are drafted at nearly the same spot or Jones is even drafted first out of the two (Cafe Mock Draft IV, for example). There's no way to interpret that other than that the gap is narrowing. Large numbers of people don't independently start trying the same "test strategy" of drafting a certain player a couple of rounds early or late just for the fun of it. If the ADP of a player goes way up or way down, it's probably due to a change in the player's perceived value.

And if you don't like Antsports, try something closer to home. If you look at the Extremely Early Mock and the Still Too Early Mock, Barber went in the 2nd round in one and, I believe, the 3rd in the other. In the Early Mock with Rookies, Barber went with the last pick in the 3rd. In Mock Draft III, it's the 6th round and Barber is still on the board. In Mock Draft IV, he went in the 7th. In Mock Draft V, he went in the 6th. If those weren't "real mock drafts," I don't know what are. And the results are not reflective of every drafter in each of those drafts choosing to "try out" the strategy of drafting Barber later and JJ earlier. What strategy is that even? Barber's perceived value, along with his ADP, has definitely gone down in the past 3 months and JJ's has definitely gone up.
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