FF Newbie wrote:
Kilroy1872 wrote:Yeah, I kinda do. In the actual drafts I've been in so far (which is more than a few) Barber's been going closer to two rounds ahead of Jones than one, which is why I made my original statement.
I, personally, am wary of giving too much weight to the ADPs at Antsports, FCC, whatever. Too many people taking too many theories for too many test drives before "it counts" for me take them as gospel.
I personally am wary of assuming that everyone is "test driving" the exact same players and passing on others, just to try something different. The difference between Barber and Jones was 3-4 rounds after the end of the season and now it's down to 1-2 rounds, usually closer to one. In some cases, they are drafted at nearly the same spot or Jones is even drafted first out of the two (Cafe Mock Draft IV, for example). There's no way to interpret that other than that the gap is narrowing. Large numbers of people don't independently start trying the same "test strategy" of drafting a certain player a couple of rounds early or late just for the fun of it. If the ADP of a player goes way up or way down, it's probably due to a change in the player's perceived value.
And if you don't like Antsports, try something closer to home. If you look at the Extremely Early Mock and the Still Too Early Mock, Barber went in the 2nd round in one and, I believe, the 3rd in the other. In the Early Mock with Rookies, Barber went with the last pick in the 3rd. In Mock Draft III, it's the 6th round and Barber is still on the board. In Mock Draft IV, he went in the 7th. In Mock Draft V, he went in the 6th. If those weren't "real mock drafts," I don't know what are. And the results are not reflective of every drafter in each of those drafts choosing to "try out" the strategy of drafting Barber later and JJ earlier. What strategy is that even? Barber's perceived value, along with his ADP, has definitely gone down in the past 3 months and JJ's has definitely gone up.
cafe mock iv, i took JJ in like the 6th round. i didn't care where barber was going to be drafted. the majority of the carries are going to go to julius. so he by default is the safer pick. the 17 tds or whatever barber scored last year was a fluke. i hear people saying "if he can't repeat those numbers"...man, there is no way he can repeat those numbers. even if he played every down. i'm staying away from marion barber this year. his value is not good. last year i had him on several teams. i won't touch him this year. the price is too steep.