Santana Moss - Bad year Good year Theory

[PapaPark]

2001 NYJ 40 yards
2002 NYJ 433 yards
2003 NYJ 1105 yards
2004 NYJ 838 yards
2005 WAS 1483 yards
2006 WAS 790 yards

Do you believe in this?

If so - he's due for 1200+ yards

Thoughts?

[bagobonez]

I like him as a sleeper this year. Jason Campbell should continue to look his way more often as he gets his feet wet, and the Redskins have no other threats besides Chris Cooley so Moss will be targeted alot.

[Free Bagel]

Heh, this worked with Eric Moulds for a while.

Seems S. Moss and Chris Chambers are the newer versions of it.

[skibrett15]

Heh, this worked with Eric Moulds for a while.

Seems S. Moss and Chris Chambers are the newer versions of it.

Thing of it is, it's that Moss does well when his hammy isn't busted and has a bad year when it is. I like him this year, but he definitely is an injury risk and his play will suffer if he does get injured.

[moochman]

I like his odds of having a productive season based soley on the fact that they have a QB who can pass downfield. Moss should support the everyother year theory this season. Buy.

[mystykoekaki]

I'm not really a fan of the Redskins offense, I had S Moss the 1400 year and it worked well for me. But because of last year it's really hard to trust him. If there seriously isn't anymore better, sure take a chance on him....but don't expect the world from him. Be ready for disapointment.

[CBMGreatOne]

As a Redskins fan, I'm not ready to take him as high as I've seen him going. Actually, there really isn't much not to like about the Redskins offense this year, unless you're really down on Campbell, which is perfectly understandable. The Redskins offense will go as far as Campbell takes them. If Campbell has a great year, you can bet Santana will too. Don't underrate the rejuvenation of the running game with two healthy feature quality backs.

I guess the wild card is the loss of Dockery. I hope it doesn't set the running game back significantly and it sure would have been nice to have him back, but that contract with Buffalo was absolutely ginormous for a guard.

Then again, if Buffalo gave him all that money, they must have seen something that told them that he was a huge part of the success of our run game last year. We shall see.

[steelerfan04]

I'm not too high on Moss because of his inconsistency throughout the season. A lot of times his TD numbers will be inflted by one big game he had, and he is not very consistent on a game to game basis. I see him having a better year this year than he did last year, but I'm still not very high on him.

[CC]

I'm not too high on Moss because of his inconsistency throughout the season. A lot of times his TD numbers will be inflted by one big game he had, and he is not very consistent on a game to game basis. I see him having a better year this year than he did last year, but I'm still not very high on him.

QFT.
In his two good seasons (2003 and 2005) his great production was based off of a few good weeks.
A quick look:

2003:
Total production: 74 catches, 1105 yards, 10 TDs
Weeks 2, 6, 8, and 9: 27 catches, 520 yards, 6 TDs = 22 fantasy points per game average (using 10 yards = 1 point, TD = 6 points)
Other 12 weeks: 47 catches, 585 yards, 4 TDs = 6.8 points per game average

2005:
Total production: 84 catches, 1483 yards, 9 TDs
Weeks 2, 5, and 16: 20 catches, 492 yards, 7 TDs = 30.4 fantasy points per game average
Other 13 weeks: 64 catches, 991 yards, 2 TDs = 8.3 fantasy points per game average

So in short, take Santana Moss if you want him to have 3-4 great games and 12-13 mediocre ones.

[busby]

I would be happy to take Moss this year if he could essentially win three - four games for me from the #3 WR slot.