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Santana Moss - Bad year Good year Theory

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Re: Santana Moss - Bad year Good year Theory

Postby FF Newbie » Mon Jul 09, 2007 1:29 am

VHawk15 wrote:This is really a nonsensical discussion. Obviously I'm not saying that since both Driver and Santana will be WR2's on most fantasy teams, that they will post indentical stats. My comments were in response to busby, who said "I would be happy to take Moss this year if he could essentially win three - four games for me from the #3 WR slot."

I am only saying that at the WR22 spot, fantasy owners cannot take for granted that they will be able to grab Santana as a WR3 with upside. In reality, he will most likely be an incredibly inconsistent WR2.

I realize you weren't saying that. I was just using the example to make the point.

I agree with you--I wouldn't take for granted that I can snag Moss as a WR3, but if I can get him there, I might take a shot on him. I'm pretty sure that's what busby was saying. I definitely wouldn't want him as my WR2 this year unless I had a lot of talent stockpiled at other positions to make up for it. Like you said, Moss is insanely consistent. I know--last year he scored about 1/4 of his total points for the entire season in the week I played against him.
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Re: Santana Moss - Bad year Good year Theory

Postby busby » Mon Jul 09, 2007 7:25 am

VHawk15 wrote:This is really a nonsensical discussion. Obviously I'm not saying that since both Driver and Santana will be WR2's on most fantasy teams, that they will post indentical stats. My comments were in response to busby, who said "I would be happy to take Moss this year if he could essentially win three - four games for me from the #3 WR slot."

I am only saying that at the WR22 spot, fantasy owners cannot take for granted that they will be able to grab Santana as a WR3 with upside. In reality, he will most likely be an incredibly inconsistent WR2.


Interesting discussion, lots of banter, but this quotation essentially confirms my point. I would be happy to take Santana Moss as my #3 WR, because I think he could have several breakout games. It is not unreasonable to see him still on the draft board in round 6. Round 6 is around that time when many owners are drafting a #3 WR if they are not drafting a QB, backup RB, TE, etc.

I never said that I expected to pick him up as my #3 WR, or that I would be happy to have him as my #2 WR.
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Re: Santana Moss - Bad year Good year Theory

Postby Stelly » Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:11 pm

VHawk15 wrote:
FF Newbie wrote:I stand corrected on Moss' ADP. I was going by memory and thought it was 6.04, but you're right, it's 5.08 (on Antsports). That's still a WR3 for teams that draft 3 WRs in the first 5-6 rounds (and Moss will fall to the 6th round quite often). The 22nd-ranked WR can easily be a WR3 because there will always be teams that draft a QB, TE or RB3 before their WR2. It's not like every single team takes exactly 2 WRs in the first 5-6 rounds. Some will take just 1 and others will take 3.


Sure, it is possible, however, for most teams, Santana will be a WR2 given his ADP. The WR22 is by definition a WR2 and picking three WR's in the first five rounds is usually not a common draft strategy. Thus, Santana must be treated as a WR2 and we must expect WR2 numbers from him.


In a ten-team league, it's not unreasonable at all to have S. Moss as a WR3. Even at WR22, he's a WR2/WR3 tweener. Picking him in the 5th or 6th round is pretty reasonable given his ADP (5.08 on Antsports, 6.09 on FantasyFootballCalculator).

I'm not sure how picking 3 WRs in the first 5 or 6 rounds is "not a common draft strategy." Nothing wrong with drafting 2 RBs and 2 WRs in the first 4 rounds, then getting a WR and a RB in the 5th and 6th (Moss, Coles, DJax at WR, Lewis, D. Williams A. Green at RB or even F. Taylor a couple rounds later), and then start looking for a QB (Hasselback, Romo, Rivers). I think it's a pretty solid draft strategy.
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Re: Santana Moss - Bad year Good year Theory

Postby VHawk15 » Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:24 pm

Stelly wrote:In a ten-team league, it's not unreasonable at all to have S. Moss as a WR3. Even at WR22, he's a WR2/WR3 tweener. Picking him in the 5th or 6th round is pretty reasonable given his ADP (5.08 on Antsports, 6.09 on FantasyFootballCalculator).

I'm not sure how picking 3 WRs in the first 5 or 6 rounds is "not a common draft strategy." Nothing wrong with drafting 2 RBs and 2 WRs in the first 4 rounds, then getting a WR and a RB in the 5th and 6th (Moss, Coles, DJax at WR, Lewis, D. Williams A. Green at RB or even F. Taylor a couple rounds later), and then start looking for a QB (Hasselback, Romo, Rivers). I think it's a pretty solid draft strategy.


I never said that it was unreasonable to have Santana as a WR3, simply less likely. I never said that drafting three WR's in the first five rounds in a foolish draft strategy, only an uncommon one. I interpreted busby's post as an assumption that we should expect to find Santana as a readily available WR3 option, which is not the case judging by his ADP.

However, semantics over whether his ADP is the 5th or 6th round are hardly as important as the bottom line, which is that there seems to be a consensus that Santana Moss is an inconsistent fantasy WR that is probably to be avoided unless he slips in the draft.
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Re: Santana Moss - Bad year Good year Theory

Postby skibrett15 » Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:49 pm

Santana Moss is a risk guy who could put up top 5 numbers. He's done it before, and if he's healthy he could definitely do it again. Campbell could be the best QB he's played with. Getting a top 5 WR in the 5th round could win you a league. Some people are gonna believe he can do it and some aren't. i think there's less of a chance he actually puts up 5th round numbers than either 2nd round or 8th round.
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Re: Santana Moss - Bad year Good year Theory

Postby Stelly » Tue Jul 10, 2007 8:49 am

VHawk15 wrote:However, semantics over whether his ADP is the 5th or 6th round are hardly as important as the bottom line, which is that there seems to be a consensus that Santana Moss is an inconsistent fantasy WR that is probably to be avoided unless he slips in the draft.


Excactly! Personally, I would not draft S. Moss as my WR2, but I would be hard pressed to pass him up as my WR3.
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Re: Santana Moss - Bad year Good year Theory

Postby FF Newbie » Tue Jul 10, 2007 1:39 pm

Stelly wrote:
VHawk15 wrote:However, semantics over whether his ADP is the 5th or 6th round are hardly as important as the bottom line, which is that there seems to be a consensus that Santana Moss is an inconsistent fantasy WR that is probably to be avoided unless he slips in the draft.


Excactly! Personally, I would not draft S. Moss as my WR2, but I would be hard pressed to pass him up as my WR3.

Bingo.
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