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Avoiding Fantasy Failure

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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby Free Bagel » Sat Jul 14, 2007 3:54 pm

Oh man I really don't want to have this Manning argument again, but I can never stay out of them... ;)
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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby bobbing_headz » Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:53 pm

#1—Ignore The Running Back Position
While I know that going 4 WRs in a row is obviously quite silly I wouldn't exactly agree with this. I personally believe that this year has an unbelievably deep pool of RB talent (although I said this last year too) and unlike other years going WR/WR or QB/WR is something that I would actually consider come draft day. I could easily end up with guys like Thomas Jones, Benson, Lynch, Peterson, McAllister or Lewis who could all be quite decent options.

#2—Picking a Quarterback at The Top of The Draft
This is a silly statement because it's way too generalized. In a 2 QB league where they score 6 points a td and all that other jazz that gives Qbs more points it would definately not be stupid to avoid Peyton early. Like it's been mentioned, #3 kind of contradicts this one.

#4—Reaching To Fill Out Your Starting Lineup
Again needs to be more specific. I think what they are trying to say is that you shouldn't grab positions like TE, K, Def, ]maybe WR3 or QB early. But if you go through the first 5 or 6 rounds drafting 1 WR and 5 or 6 RBs because they present the best value you may be in a bit of trouble.

Is Mike Vick really an overrated big name? I'm pretty sure last year he was taken around 8-12 QB in most leagues and he finished top 5 in almost every one (2nd or 3rd in mine). This year with all the off field allegations he may even be underrated. He's risky but I wouldn't call him an overrated big name.

Oh and Reggie Bush is a monster in PPR. Top 10 for sure with top 5 potential.
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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby Infidel » Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:15 pm

First, I have never seen Payton in any FF league I have ever played in.

But, I would add a thought. Owners give way too much significance to last year's stats and avoid guys who were returning from injuries who had done very well in the 2-3 years prior to the injury shortened season. Yeah, you must make sure they are fully recovered. Here are 2 guys from last year that dropped like rocks yet put up great #'s last year, Brees and Walker. But, I should temper this by saying, know the injury and the position. It does vary.

This year, I am targeting McNabb, hopefully around 5-6 and am expecting top 3 #'s from him.
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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby Felix the Cat » Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:16 pm

Overrated big names seems to be a big problem in IDP leagues. I've been in several IDP drafts this year, and unfailingly, someone takes Brian Urlacher in the 6th round as the first IDP taken... and then the first DL taken is Mario Williams... and the first DB taken is Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu (or, shudder, Champ Bailey).

One problem is that the "big names" are often big because they are excellent football players - but being an excellent football player, especially in IDP, does not always translate to being an excellent fantasy player. Case in point: Champ Bailey... nice INT numbers but not many tackles, even compared to other CBs, because teams avoid passing to the receiver he's covering - he's a shutdown corner, but will shut down your winning chances if you pick him high in a fantasy draft.
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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby steelerfan513 » Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:24 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:#1—Ignore The Running Back Position
While I know that going 4 WRs in a row is obviously quite silly I wouldn't exactly agree with this. I personally believe that this year has an unbelievably deep pool of RB talent (although I said this last year too) and unlike other years going WR/WR or QB/WR is something that I would actually consider come draft day. I could easily end up with guys like Thomas Jones, Benson, Lynch, Peterson, McAllister or Lewis who could all be quite decent options.

#4—Reaching To Fill Out Your Starting Lineup
Again needs to be more specific. I think what they are trying to say is that you shouldn't grab positions like TE, K, Def, ]maybe WR3 or QB early. But if you go through the first 5 or 6 rounds drafting 1 WR and 5 or 6 RBs because they present the best value you may be in a bit of trouble.

Is Mike Vick really an overrated big name? I'm pretty sure last year he was taken around 8-12 QB in most leagues and he finished top 5 in almost every one (2nd or 3rd in mine). This year with all the off field allegations he may even be underrated. He's risky but I wouldn't call him an overrated big name.

Oh and Reggie Bush is a monster in PPR. Top 10 for sure with top 5 potential.


Going QB/WR or WR/WR is still suicide. Most of the running backs you listed will be gone before the second round ends in leagues with smart drafters.

Taking the best valued player is still probably the best way to go. You can always trade those running backs later to teams that need them and get wide receivers in return. Maybe if the difference in value is insignificant do you take the positional need first.

And Michael Vick's 2007 season is an anomaly because how many times will he rush for over 1000 yards again?
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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby bobbing_headz » Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:33 pm

steelerfan513 wrote:
bobbing_headz wrote:#1—Ignore The Running Back Position
While I know that going 4 WRs in a row is obviously quite silly I wouldn't exactly agree with this. I personally believe that this year has an unbelievably deep pool of RB talent (although I said this last year too) and unlike other years going WR/WR or QB/WR is something that I would actually consider come draft day. I could easily end up with guys like Thomas Jones, Benson, Lynch, Peterson, McAllister or Lewis who could all be quite decent options.

#4—Reaching To Fill Out Your Starting Lineup
Again needs to be more specific. I think what they are trying to say is that you shouldn't grab positions like TE, K, Def, ]maybe WR3 or QB early. But if you go through the first 5 or 6 rounds drafting 1 WR and 5 or 6 RBs because they present the best value you may be in a bit of trouble.

Is Mike Vick really an overrated big name? I'm pretty sure last year he was taken around 8-12 QB in most leagues and he finished top 5 in almost every one (2nd or 3rd in mine). This year with all the off field allegations he may even be underrated. He's risky but I wouldn't call him an overrated big name.

Oh and Reggie Bush is a monster in PPR. Top 10 for sure with top 5 potential.


Going QB/WR or WR/WR is still suicide. Most of the running backs you listed will be gone before the second round ends in leagues with smart drafters.

Taking the best valued player is still probably the best way to go. You can always trade those running backs later to teams that need them and get wide receivers in return. Maybe if the difference in value is insignificant do you take the positional need first.

And Michael Vick's 2007 season is an anomaly because how many times will he rush for over 1000 yards again?


Ok, it really depends on the league. In a 10 teamer the guys I mentioned will definitely be there from 3rd to even 5th. Maybe not in 12 or 14 teamers.
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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby The Lung » Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:48 pm

Felix the Cat wrote:Overrated big names seems to be a big problem in IDP leagues. I've been in several IDP drafts this year, and unfailingly, someone takes Brian Urlacher in the 6th round as the first IDP taken... and then the first DL taken is Mario Williams... and the first DB taken is Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu (or, shudder, Champ Bailey).

One problem is that the "big names" are often big because they are excellent football players - but being an excellent football player, especially in IDP, does not always translate to being an excellent fantasy player. Case in point: Champ Bailey... nice INT numbers but not many tackles, even compared to other CBs, because teams avoid passing to the receiver he's covering - he's a shutdown corner, but will shut down your winning chances if you pick him high in a fantasy draft.


Couldn't agree more. I was shocked in a recent Cafe draft when Champ Bailey was the 3rd DB chosen. Chris Hope & Sean Jones were both still available!
(~);}

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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby Munboy » Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:56 pm

Maybe he might be taken seriously by writing like an adult, not a giggling name-calling 12 year old. There's a difference in being funny and name calling trying to get a laugh. :*)
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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby bobbing_headz » Sat Jul 14, 2007 11:03 pm

The Lung wrote:
Felix the Cat wrote:Overrated big names seems to be a big problem in IDP leagues. I've been in several IDP drafts this year, and unfailingly, someone takes Brian Urlacher in the 6th round as the first IDP taken... and then the first DL taken is Mario Williams... and the first DB taken is Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu (or, shudder, Champ Bailey).

One problem is that the "big names" are often big because they are excellent football players - but being an excellent football player, especially in IDP, does not always translate to being an excellent fantasy player. Case in point: Champ Bailey... nice INT numbers but not many tackles, even compared to other CBs, because teams avoid passing to the receiver he's covering - he's a shutdown corner, but will shut down your winning chances if you pick him high in a fantasy draft.


Couldn't agree more. I was shocked in a recent Cafe draft when Champ Bailey was the 3rd DB chosen. Chris Hope & Sean Jones were both still available!


I seems to make the most difference with DBs. The top guys are guys like Sean Jean, Adrian Wilson, Chris Hope, Kerry Rhodes, etc. Bailey isn't the best but he's still probably top 10. Big named guys aren't that bad though. Top DL is Taylor and depending on scoring could be the top IDP. Urlacher could easily be top 3 LB. It really depends on the scoring as it varies in many leagues. In tackle heavy leagues for example then LBs like Urlacher and even Ray Lewis (as well as guys Ryans or Fletcher of course) have increased value.
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Re: Avoiding Fantasy Failure

Postby Azrael » Sun Jul 15, 2007 7:46 am

I think it is safe to say when someone makes a statement about "not drafting Manning or any QB early" for that matter it pertains to a 1 QB start league. When these articles are written, this is the idea in mind. 90+% of leagues start 1 QB. Same thing can be said when someone makes the statement "if healthy, so and so will do this" "If healthy" is a moot point. That goes for everyone.
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