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Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

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Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby bagobonez » Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:07 pm

Source: Washington Post
Joe Gibbs hinted Wednesday that Ladell Betts will be a bigger part of the offense in 2007 despite Clinton Portis' return to health.
A lot of times it will be kind of in [Portis's] hands," Gibbs said. "But down the stretch I don't know if anyone played better than Ladell," Gibbs said. Betts could be a serious drain on Portis' fantasy value.

Source: Washington Post
The Redskins plan to use Ladell Betts as a big part of their passing game.
Clinton Portis is the clear starter and will get the majority of carries if healthy. But Betts proved to be a better receiver with 53 catches last year and could cut into Portis' work on third downs. Betts is one of the best backups in the league, but could be overvalued coming off a huge year.


The first quote leads me to believe Betts is going to be pretty involved. I guess most people are predicting a 70/30 split between Portis and Betts, but I think 60/40 or even 50/50 may be closer to the truth, especially considering Betts had a 4.8 YPC and Portis had a 4.1. Daniel Snyder also mentioned how all 4 teams in last year's championship games (Indy, NE, Chicago and NO) had 2 quality backs that split carries somewhat evenly, and stated he wanted to do the same in 2007 with Portis and Betts. I can't find a direct quote on that (God knows I tried) but I do remember him saying that.

I think Gibbs realizes Portis is too small to be a 350 carry RB and he's going to use Betts liberally to help keep Portis healthy which is going to eat into his carries significantly. If the Redskins ran the ball 490 times last year and plan to do the same again this year, Portis would get 294 carries at a 60/40 ratio. That's 1,200 yards if he maintains his 4.1 YPC from last year. Then you have to factor in whether or not Betts will get the goal-line carries. You also have to factor in whether Portis can stay healthy whether he's got a smaller workload or not. He's not proven to be Mr. Durable by any means. So at a 60/40 ratio, which I believe to be best-case for Portis, he will have 1,200 rushing and maybe 7 or 8 TD's if Betts and/or Rock Cartwright get some goal-line carries too. The SKins also lost G Derrick Dockery, so that's not going to help Portis' average per carry any.

I just don't like him as much as most this year, call me crazy.
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Re: Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby eaglesrule » Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:25 pm

well, they didn't pay Betts for nothing...

Anyway, who knows what that org is doing? Why did they trade for Duckett last year? Why'd they give Bailey and a pick for Portis? I am tired of trying to predict what the skins will do, because we know what they should do.
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Re: Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby PapaPark » Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:30 pm

I'm sure this has all been discussed here: viewtopic.php?t=329455
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Re: Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby WickedSmaat » Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:34 pm

I don't know if he'll be taking the goallines, I'm not so sure because he still scored 7 TDs in the 8 games he played. I still believe Portis will be a solid #2 this year but he's got scary good talent that can make him top 10. But like eagles said, who really knows.
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Re: Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby moonhead » Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:41 pm

portis is too good to keep off the field as much as 50/50.
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Re: Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby Free Bagel » Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:54 pm

For the millionth time. Scratch that, for the billionth time. Actually, scratch that too, for the one hundred billionth time Portis received just a hair over 60% of the carries last year while playing injured in the first year of a new offensive scheme with (in his current state) ome of the worst quarterbacks of our time and was still on pace for 1600/16 when he was placed on the IR.

This has been covered, re-covered, and then re-covered again here recently and yet no one arguing the anti-Portis side of things has made a reasonable arguement as to why they're predicting that Portis' production when he has the ball will be cut to almost half of what it was when he received the same amount of touches last year in spite of every aspect of his situation getting BETTER this year.

Saying he's only going to score 7 or 8 TDs mainly because he's only going to get 60pct of the carries isn't really much of a point when he scored that many TDs in only 7 starts last year despite getting that same percentage of carries (and playing injured and with a QB that couldn't move te ball). Portis may not be a 250 pound guy but he's always been profficient at the goaline, I see no reason why he would lose those carries.

That's all of course ignoring that much of your reasoning is based on coachspeak, which as we have all learned by now, is basicaly the antithesis of useful information.

With Portis you get a guy who was already putting up 100/1 per game with the same splits most are predicting for him now despite his situation being worse then than it is now. And you get this at the price of a 2nd rounder. Not only is he not overrated....the guy is quite UNDERrated.
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Re: Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:56 pm

Free Bagel wrote:For the millionth time. Scratch that, for the billionth time. Actually, scratch that too, for the one hundred billionth time Portis received just a hair over 60% of the carries last year while playing injured in the first year of a new offensive scheme with (in his current state) ome of the worst quarterbacks of our time and was still on pace for 1600/16 when he was placed on the IR.

This has been covered, re-covered, and then re-covered again here recently and yet no one arguing the anti-Portis side of things has made a reasonable arguement as to why they're predicting that Portis' production when he has the ball will be cut to almost half of what it was when he received the same amount of touches last year in spite of every aspect of his situation getting BETTER this year.

Saying he's only going to score 7 or 8 TDs mainly because he's only going to get 60pct of the carries isn't really much of a point when he scored that many TDs in only 7 starts last year despite getting that same percentage of carries (and playing injured and with a QB that couldn't move te ball). Portis may not be a 250 pound guy but he's always been profficient at the goaline, I see no reason why he would lose those carries.

That's all of course ignoring that much of your reasoning is based on coachspeak, which as we have all learned by now, is basicaly the antithesis of useful information.

With Portis you get a guy who was already putting up 100/1 per game with the same splits most are predicting for him now despite his situation being worse then than it is now. And you get this at the price of a 2nd rounder. Not only is he not overrated....the guy is quite UNDERrated.


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Re: Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby FF Newbie » Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:02 pm

Haha, I was counting the seconds before you guys came over here and defended the player with the 16 touchdown "downside." :-D
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Re: Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby moonhead » Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:18 pm

FF Newbie wrote:Haha, I was counting the seconds before you guys came over here and defended the player with the 16 touchdown "downside." :-D

i'm drafting that player everywhere i can! 16 tds is his bad year? word!

in all seriousness, i am targetting portis at the end of the first/early second round. i think you'll see him move up the closer things get to the regular season. but i love the tandem of t.henry and portis at this point. which is very doable at the turn in a twelve teamer.
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Re: Clinton Portis = Mr. Overated

Postby bagobonez » Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:45 pm

Free Bagel wrote:For the millionth time. Scratch that, for the billionth time. Actually, scratch that too, for the one hundred billionth time Portis received just a hair over 60% of the carries last year while playing injured in the first year of a new offensive scheme with (in his current state) ome of the worst quarterbacks of our time and was still on pace for 1600/16 when he was placed on the IR.

This has been covered, re-covered, and then re-covered again here recently and yet no one arguing the anti-Portis side of things has made a reasonable arguement as to why they're predicting that Portis' production when he has the ball will be cut to almost half of what it was when he received the same amount of touches last year in spite of every aspect of his situation getting BETTER this year.

Saying he's only going to score 7 or 8 TDs mainly because he's only going to get 60pct of the carries isn't really much of a point when he scored that many TDs in only 7 starts last year despite getting that same percentage of carries (and playing injured and with a QB that couldn't move te ball). Portis may not be a 250 pound guy but he's always been profficient at the goaline, I see no reason why he would lose those carries.

That's all of course ignoring that much of your reasoning is based on coachspeak, which as we have all learned by now, is basicaly the antithesis of useful information.

With Portis you get a guy who was already putting up 100/1 per game with the same splits most are predicting for him now despite his situation being worse then than it is now. And you get this at the price of a 2nd rounder. Not only is he not overrated....the guy is quite UNDERrated.


How is his situation so much better this year? He lost Derrick Dockery, one of the top run blocking guards in the game and his situation is better? You must have alot of faith in Jason Campbell and very little faith in Ladell Betts to say his situation is better. He wasn't a 100/1 guy, he was a 86/.87 guy and that includes his receiving yardage. He had one 100 yard game in 8 tries and TD's are a fluky thing, if anyone challenges him at all at the goal-line he can kiss his TD-a-game good bye. a 60/40 split is also BEST case scenario. Betts ran better than Portis did last year, and may very well earn a 50/50 split. Tack on the fact that Portis NEVER stays healthy for a full year and I don't see how you can say he's underated.
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