Who is the safest First Round pick this year? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Moderator: Football Moderators

Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby YardBirds » Thu Jul 19, 2007 5:14 am

1. LaDananian Tomlinson - Coaching staff changes, pattern of running backs underperforming after a career season.
2. Steven Jackson - Additions to the offense may spell less production.
3. Larry Johnson - coaching staff commenting on lessoning the burden, may have been worn down by over use last year, contract hold out looming.
4. Shaun Alexander - Could foot become nagging injury, OLine question marks.
5. Frank Gore - durability?
6. Brian Westbrook - injury concerns, as always.
7. Willie Parker - losing goal line carries, spread offense may take away possessions if recieving corp performs well.
8. Rudi Johnson - model of consistencey but YPC dropping.
9. Joseph Addai - will he step up as starter, or will carrying the load prove to wear him down.
10. Laurence Maroney - will shoulder be healthy
11. Travis Henry - injury concerns
12. Clinton Portis - can he stay healthy
13. Ronnie Brown - will Miami O allow him to produce first Round quality numbers

**omitted Reggie Bush b/c Deuce will still get the lion share of the carries, and unless you are in a PPR I couldn't really see drafting him in the late 1st/early 2nd when you would have to get Deuce a few Rds later to handcuff.
***omitted Maurice Jones-Drew b/c Fred Taylor is still the starter and the TDs may have been an anomaly
****Likely that Reggie Bush, Peyton Manning, and Steve Smith will go toward the end of the first Rd. so I'm not saying Henry, Brown or Portis are First Rd worthy.



For me it seems like the only true RB in the first Rd that you can be almost sure you will get your value from is Rudi Johnson. Though I doubt LT will put up putrid numbers, there is something about the Cafe Article by KC that made me think. I also read a post about RBs usually have paltry years after a year of overuse, further scaring me away from Larry Johnson. So I was just looking for opinions.
Last edited by YardBirds on Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
YardBirds
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 17
Joined: 27 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby bagobonez » Thu Jul 19, 2007 7:19 am

Tomlinson. Barring an injury, TOmlinson's a lock for the top 5. Nothing's changed in the San Diego offense, and TOmlinson's still fairly young. All other RB's in the top 10 have major question marks aside from Rudi. By the way, where's Steven Jackson?
"90% of the game is half mental" - John Madden
Image
bagobonez
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4463
Joined: 23 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Atop my league's fantasy throne

Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Jul 19, 2007 7:39 am

I think the only two "locks" are Tomlinson and Steven Jackson...

But Joseph Addai is pretty close to a lock, as well... He has very little competition for carries, and the passing game in Indy ALWAYS leaves running lanes that my grandmother could run through...

The relatively safe picks are:

Frank Gore - Nothing has changed about his situation that could substantially impact his numbers...

Willie Parker - May not have the year he did last year, but should be good for no less than 1,200 and 10...

Brian Westbrook - His real value lies in the passing game... The Eagles didn't add any stud WR's to steal looks from him, there...

Rudi Johnson - Mr. Consistency... Put him down for 1,300 and 12 right now...


Good Bets for the latter half are:

Reggie Bush - They will get him the ball one way or the other... He may not see 200 carries... But he will see 75 receptions, easily...

Laurence Maroney - Worst case scenario he is not 100% for a few games, but no doubt he'll be studly when you need him...

Willis McGahee - Nothing suggests this guy can't go for 1,200 and 10...


Iffy Propositions are:

Shaun Alexander - With his age, coming off injury, and the loss of Hutchinson there are boat loads of questions, here...

Larry Johnson - Boom or Bust... Mainly because (a) he is threatening a hold-out, (b) they're likely starting Croyle at QB, and (c) the offensive line isn't what it used to be

Travis Henry - Boom or Bust... Personally I don't trust Shanny not to screw me... I will not be drafting Henry...

Clinton Portis - I gotta see how they plan on using Betts before I burn a first rounder on Portis...

Ronnie Brown - Are the Dolphins EVER going to have their act together?

Maurice Jones-Drew - WAY too much competition with Fred still in the mix and Greg Jones sniping at the goal line... Boom or Bust...
Image

Signature courtesy of: madaslives911
Plindsey88
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 10241
Joined: 19 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Richmond, VA

Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:02 am

YardBirds wrote:1. LaDananian Tomlinson - Coaching staff changes, pattern of running backs underperforming after a career season.
2. Larry Johnson - coaching staff commenting on lessoning the burden, may have been worn down by over use last year, contract hold out looming.
3. Shaun Alexander - Could foot become nagging injury, OLine question marks.
4. Frank Gore - durability?
5. Brian Westbrook - injury concerns, as always.
6. Willie Parker - losing goal line carries, spread offense may take away possessions if recieving corp performs well.
7. Rudi Johnson - model of consistencey but YPC dropping.
8. Joseph Addai - will he step up as starter, or will carrying the load prove to wear him down.
9. Laurence Maroney - will shoulder be healthy
10. Travis Henry - injury concerns
11. Clinton Portis - can he stay healthy
12. Ronnie Brown - will Miami O allow him to produce first Round quality numbers


Steven Jackson not in your first round? ;)

The "safest" picks have to be LT and Rudi, the only guys that have done it over the course of several years AND last year. They also probably have the least questionmarks of the bunch.

Though, drafting "safe" never really won anyone anything.
Image
Free Bagel
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 8495
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Titletown, FL

Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby YardBirds » Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:19 am

bagobonez wrote:Tomlinson. Barring an injury, TOmlinson's a lock for the top 5. Nothing's changed in the San Diego offense, and TOmlinson's still fairly young. All other RB's in the top 10 have major question marks aside from Rudi. By the way, where's Steven Jackson?


Fixed, forgot about Jax.
YardBirds
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 17
Joined: 27 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby YardBirds » Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:33 am

Free Bagel wrote:
YardBirds wrote:1. LaDananian Tomlinson - Coaching staff changes, pattern of running backs underperforming after a career season.
2. Larry Johnson - coaching staff commenting on lessoning the burden, may have been worn down by over use last year, contract hold out looming.
3. Shaun Alexander - Could foot become nagging injury, OLine question marks.
4. Frank Gore - durability?
5. Brian Westbrook - injury concerns, as always.
6. Willie Parker - losing goal line carries, spread offense may take away possessions if recieving corp performs well.
7. Rudi Johnson - model of consistencey but YPC dropping.
8. Joseph Addai - will he step up as starter, or will carrying the load prove to wear him down.

9. Laurence Maroney - will shoulder be healthy
10. Travis Henry - injury concerns
11. Clinton Portis - can he stay healthy
12. Ronnie Brown - will Miami O allow him to produce first Round quality numbers


Steven Jackson not in your first round? ;)

The "safest" picks have to be LT and Rudi, the only guys that have done it over the course of several years AND last year. They also probably have the least questionmarks of the bunch.

Though, drafting "safe" never really won anyone anything.


By safe, I wasn't necessarily saying if Larry Johnson somehow fell to 7th and Rudi was still on the board I wouldn't take LJ, because his value and upside there is huge. I was just looking at all of the question marks in the first round and wondering who other fantasy players felt they could see having a Top 10 year and not going gimp or under performing to such an extent as to not really merit a first round pick.

When it comes to safest to iffiest out of that list (and not necessarily on upside) I would rank them:

Tomlinson
Jackson
Johnson
Parker
Addai
Gore
Brown
Westbrook
Maroney
LJohnson
Henry
Alexander
Portis

But if we talk Risk/Reward upside --

Tomlinson -- could obliterate fantasy all over again
Alexander -- was capable of keeping up with LT 2 seasons ago, why not now?
Jackson -- great offense, should repeat if cards fall into the right places
Johnson -- If Bowe can help Gonzalez take some pressure off, could see less carries but better yardage
Portis -- if his shoulder holds up, I see nothing stopping him going 1600 / 14 (Betts will get 40% carries, but shouldn't matter)
Westbrook -- Few targets for McNabb means, tons of catchs, and alot of redzone attention.
Maroney -- New England has a ton of weapons, should make spreading the field and running the ball much easier.
Gore -- San Fran just keeps improving. Jason Hill may help out the pass and Battle is improving, may help Gore tremendously.
YardBirds
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 17
Joined: 27 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby cowboyragan » Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:59 am

LT #1; SJax #2 -- and that the order they'll go...Tomlinson will hit a wall eventually, but not this year and SJax is about to enter a 3 year run of 1800 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs per year
cowboyragan
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 12
Joined: 17 Jul 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby moochman » Thu Jul 19, 2007 10:35 am

Until LT proves that he isn't going to post dominant fantasy numbers he is the King. I don't feel the 'let down after career year' theory doesn't apply here because compared to other RB every year for LT is a career year.
S Jax looks to be on the cusp of a breakout record threatening type season, methinks. He broke out last year, showed he could handle a full season with all the workload. Could run roughshod over Ds this season as he gains confidence and imposes his will.
LJ is in his prime and wasn't used much when he was still a baby. I think he has a couple more big number seasons in store.
I like Alexander to make a nice comeback this season. He did fine toward the end of last year and it's not like he's running behind the Lions O-line. He could still threaten 1,500 yds and 15+ TDs.
Rudi keeps rolling out 1,200+yds and double digits TDs seasons in a prodigious O. Draft him, play him, and forget about it.
All the other RBs I can foresee scenarios whereby the other RBs could fail to live up to expectations.
Westy, Maroney, Addai all share injury concerns. Maroney and Addai have to prove they can handle increased work loads (though I love me some Addai)
Henry has the Shanny factor. A non-sensical random strike disease that could leave you with your stud RB giving you a DNP because some guy you never heard of had a good week in practice.
Parker new coaching, new O scheme.
Brown, how did a player that was such a disappointment last season gain any trust when you add a unproven head coach?
My point is that the top four are easily the best bets to return you appropriate value with potential to exceed. The rest have issues.
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16302
(Past Year: 82)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby mystykoekaki » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:31 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:I think the only two "locks" are Tomlinson and Steven Jackson...

But Joseph Addai is pretty close to a lock, as well... He has very little competition for carries, and the passing game in Indy ALWAYS leaves running lanes that my grandmother could run through...

The relatively safe picks are:

Frank Gore - Nothing has changed about his situation that could substantially impact his numbers...

Willie Parker - May not have the year he did last year, but should be good for no less than 1,200 and 10...

Brian Westbrook - His real value lies in the passing game... The Eagles didn't add any stud WR's to steal looks from him, there...

Rudi Johnson - Mr. Consistency... Put him down for 1,300 and 12 right now...


Good Bets for the latter half are:

Reggie Bush - They will get him the ball one way or the other... He may not see 200 carries... But he will see 75 receptions, easily...

Laurence Maroney - Worst case scenario he is not 100% for a few games, but no doubt he'll be studly when you need him...

Willis McGahee - Nothing suggests this guy can't go for 1,200 and 10...


Iffy Propositions are:

Shaun Alexander - With his age, coming off injury, and the loss of Hutchinson there are boat loads of questions, here...

Larry Johnson - Boom or Bust... Mainly because (a) he is threatening a hold-out, (b) they're likely starting Croyle at QB, and (c) the offensive line isn't what it used to be

Travis Henry - Boom or Bust... Personally I don't trust Shanny not to screw me... I will not be drafting Henry...

Clinton Portis - I gotta see how they plan on using Betts before I burn a first rounder on Portis...

Ronnie Brown - Are the Dolphins EVER going to have their act together?

Maurice Jones-Drew - WAY too much competition with Fred still in the mix and Greg Jones sniping at the goal line... Boom or Bust...


Completely agree. Plind you are the man! :P
mystykoekaki Beginner
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3185
Joined: 13 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby Doughhead » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:44 pm

I wouldn't argue if you told me Manning is the safest 1st round choice.
Doughhead
Doughhead
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 869
Joined: 6 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 13:25 hours
(and 35 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact