jayday wrote:One of my most proverbial rules that I always remind myself:
I hate that quote. Just personal opinion of course, but here's my beef with it:
This argument came up a few years back with the Priest/LJ vs. LT debate, but I'll go last year since that's more in people's head. This same kind of thing came up last year with the debate about the number 7-8 with Rudi vs. Sjax. Rudi was the safe guy, Sjax the upside guy. We heard it from everyone...."you can't win your league in the 1st round...but you can lose it".
In the end, Rudi did exactly what everyone thought he would and put up a nice safe 1500/12. Sjax beat him out by a solid 800 yards and 4 touchdowns, or 104 fantasy points.
To put that in perspective, we can take a 1st round bust like Edgerrin James that many people were screaming "lost" them the league and Rudi outscored him by 100 yards and 6 touchdowns, or 46 fantasy points.
Now obviously no one player can "actually" win or lose you your league. You can draft Ryan Leaf in the 1st round and win your league, just like you can get LT 12th overall and lose. But what we're really talking about is guys putting you at a significant disadvantage vs. guys putting you at a significant advantage.
That said, my point is how can we say that a guy losing you 46 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at a bigger disadvantage than a guy gaining you 104 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at an advantage?
To lose as many points from drafting the bust instead of Rudi as you gained from drafting Sjax instead you would've had to take a guy that went for 700yards and 8 TDs. You could've taken Warrick Dunn in the 1st round and still come out ahead of those numbers. To say it again, taking Sjax over Rudi in the first round gained you more points last year than taking Warrick Dunn over Rudi in the 1st round would have lost you.