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Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby Free Bagel » Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:30 am

jfg wrote:Agree with everyone who said Manning. He's not the best choice but he's easily the safest.


Myth.

If Peyton throws for his career averages he is a B-U-S-T as a 1st round pick, just like a RB like Edge was considered a bust last ear. 4000/28 looks nice in real life, but in fantasy football terms its value does not equate to near a 1st rounder. If you expect him to do significantly better like he's done once or twice in his career then ok, but his downside is just as low as many of the RBs in the 1st half of the 1st round, because 4000/28 is just as bad as the numbers those guys have as their downside when you spent a 1st round pick on it.
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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby PMoneyTKE » Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:11 am

Free Bagel wrote:
jfg wrote:Agree with everyone who said Manning. He's not the best choice but he's easily the safest.


Myth.

If Peyton throws for his career averages he is a B-U-S-T as a 1st round pick, just like a RB like Edge was considered a bust last ear. 4000/28 looks nice in real life, but in fantasy football terms its value does not equate to near a 1st rounder. If you expect him to do significantly better like he's done once or twice in his career then ok, but his downside is just as low as many of the RBs in the 1st half of the 1st round, because 4000/28 is just as bad as the numbers those guys have as their downside when you spent a 1st round pick on it.


Safe doesn't mean best value for a first rounder though, Rudi is far from the best 1st round value, but he is still arguably the safest. This is why I don't understand what is so important about getting a "safe" first rounder. Safe doesn't win fantasy football championships, safe just ensures you have an around .500 season with a shot at the playoffs. Not exactly what i'm shootin for...
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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby BALCOBOMBER » Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:33 am

PMoneyTKE wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
jfg wrote:Agree with everyone who said Manning. He's not the best choice but he's easily the safest.


Myth.

If Peyton throws for his career averages he is a B-U-S-T as a 1st round pick, just like a RB like Edge was considered a bust last ear. 4000/28 looks nice in real life, but in fantasy football terms its value does not equate to near a 1st rounder. If you expect him to do significantly better like he's done once or twice in his career then ok, but his downside is just as low as many of the RBs in the 1st half of the 1st round, because 4000/28 is just as bad as the numbers those guys have as their downside when you spent a 1st round pick on it.


Safe doesn't mean best value for a first rounder though, Rudi is far from the best 1st round value, but he is still arguably the safest. This is why I don't understand what is so important about getting a "safe" first rounder. Safe doesn't win fantasy football championships, safe just ensures you have an around .500 season with a shot at the playoffs. Not exactly what i'm shootin for...


I agree, I try to pick guys that have the potential to put up huge numbers.
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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby jayday » Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:34 am

PMoneyTKE wrote:Safe doesn't mean best value for a first rounder though, Rudi is far from the best 1st round value, but he is still arguably the safest. This is why I don't understand what is so important about getting a "safe" first rounder. Safe doesn't win fantasy football championships, safe just ensures you have an around .500 season with a shot at the playoffs. Not exactly what i'm shootin for...

One of my most proverbial rules that I always remind myself:

"You rarely win the league in the first round. You are much more likely to lose it by grasping at potential over consistency."

Leagues are won in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds in my opinion....Give me 2 "Steady Eddies" in Round 1 and 2 and then I'll go after the "potential" guys...
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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:39 am

jayday wrote:One of my most proverbial rules that I always remind myself:


I hate that quote. Just personal opinion of course, but here's my beef with it:

This argument came up a few years back with the Priest/LJ vs. LT debate, but I'll go last year since that's more in people's head. This same kind of thing came up last year with the debate about the number 7-8 with Rudi vs. Sjax. Rudi was the safe guy, Sjax the upside guy. We heard it from everyone...."you can't win your league in the 1st round...but you can lose it".

In the end, Rudi did exactly what everyone thought he would and put up a nice safe 1500/12. Sjax beat him out by a solid 800 yards and 4 touchdowns, or 104 fantasy points.

To put that in perspective, we can take a 1st round bust like Edgerrin James that many people were screaming "lost" them the league and Rudi outscored him by 100 yards and 6 touchdowns, or 46 fantasy points.

Now obviously no one player can "actually" win or lose you your league. You can draft Ryan Leaf in the 1st round and win your league, just like you can get LT 12th overall and lose. But what we're really talking about is guys putting you at a significant disadvantage vs. guys putting you at a significant advantage.

That said, my point is how can we say that a guy losing you 46 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at a bigger disadvantage than a guy gaining you 104 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at an advantage?

To lose as many points from drafting the bust instead of Rudi as you gained from drafting Sjax instead you would've had to take a guy that went for 700yards and 8 TDs. You could've taken Warrick Dunn in the 1st round and still come out ahead of those numbers. To say it again, taking Sjax over Rudi in the first round gained you more points last year than taking Warrick Dunn over Rudi in the 1st round would have lost you.
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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby GreatestShowOnEarth » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:07 am

Plindsey88 wrote:I think the only two "locks" are Tomlinson and Steven Jackson...

But Joseph Addai is pretty close to a lock, as well... He has very little competition for carries, and the passing game in Indy ALWAYS leaves running lanes that my grandmother could run through...

The relatively safe picks are:

Frank Gore - Nothing has changed about his situation that could substantially impact his numbers...

Willie Parker - May not have the year he did last year, but should be good for no less than 1,200 and 10...

Brian Westbrook - His real value lies in the passing game... The Eagles didn't add any stud WR's to steal looks from him, there...

Rudi Johnson - Mr. Consistency... Put him down for 1,300 and 12 right now...


Good Bets for the latter half are:

Reggie Bush - They will get him the ball one way or the other... He may not see 200 carries... But he will see 75 receptions, easily...

Laurence Maroney - Worst case scenario he is not 100% for a few games, but no doubt he'll be studly when you need him...

Willis McGahee - Nothing suggests this guy can't go for 1,200 and 10...


Iffy Propositions are:

Shaun Alexander - With his age, coming off injury, and the loss of Hutchinson there are boat loads of questions, here...

Larry Johnson - Boom or Bust... Mainly because (a) he is threatening a hold-out, (b) they're likely starting Croyle at QB, and (c) the offensive line isn't what it used to be

Travis Henry - Boom or Bust... Personally I don't trust Shanny not to screw me... I will not be drafting Henry...

Clinton Portis - I gotta see how they plan on using Betts before I burn a first rounder on Portis...

Ronnie Brown - Are the Dolphins EVER going to have their act together?

Maurice Jones-Drew - WAY too much competition with Fred still in the mix and Greg Jones sniping at the goal line... Boom or Bust...


The thing that scares me about Frank Gore is the lose of Norv Turner. We all know its an RB guru.
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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby bobbing_headz » Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:05 am

Whoever is saying Westbrook is safe I'm completely against that. He's only had 200+ carries once in the last 3 years (actually once in his career only). I seriously doubt he can stay healthy all year.
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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby The Lung » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:57 pm

Peyton Manning may be a safe first round pick but you're losing value taking him there. Read this article from Brad Evans at Yahoo! to see why.

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nfl/news?slug=be-posprimer07-qb
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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby Munboy » Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:44 am

Safest is Steven Jackson. He has no real competition to steal carries. He's publicly stated he wants the all purpose yards record, and his team seems to be behind that goal. He's got a good Oline to run behind and a passing game to take pressure off. Even if his team falls behind, he'll still be getting looks in the passing game. He seems to be pretty durable. He's young, he's motivated, and he had Marshal Faulk to learn from.
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Re: Who is the safest First Round pick this year?

Postby Plindsey88 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:37 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:Whoever is saying Westbrook is safe I'm completely against that. He's only had 200+ carries once in the last 3 years (actually once in his career only). I seriously doubt he can stay healthy all year.


With Westy it's not about the carries; it's about the receptions...

Sure, he'll top out at 200 carries... But when you add in 70-100 receptions it all works out in the end...
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