My Thoughts/Strategy/Rants on Auctions

[bobbing_headz]

I know there's been a couple threads about Auction strategy but I thought I'd start my own for the hell of it. Most of the stuff I see is too general anyways. I've done a bunch of mocks lately and they've got me thinking. Feel free to add/comment. Most of the stuff here is just opinion and has little backing (or likely thought ) behind it.

(Assume I'm referring to $100 salary)

It's pretty obvious that the first guys that go generally go overpriced. People have lots of money and are generally anxious to pick someone. Nobody wants to sit there watching as guys are taken. That being said, I find that these first guys are almost always RBs. Here's how most auctions begin: First guy throws out LT. Second throws out some other RB, then another RB, and so on. I don't know why but for some reason LT is always thrown out 1st (or close). Maybe people see him as the 1st pick in snakes and think they gotta throw him out early. Whatever the case it usually starts a large chain of RBs being taken. Heck, the start of most auctions generally resemble the first 2 rounds of a snake in the players nominated. Going back to my point about people over-paying at the beginning, I've got a few thoughts.
1st, LT seems like a bad guy to go after unless you somehow have him ranked way higher than the average. He's almost certainly gonna be bid up high on (this one is kinda obvious).

2nd, I'd say at least the first 10 or 11 RBs will all be taken for at the least their value (I guess it varies though) if not higher (also kinda obvious)

The 2nd point interests me but I'll come back to it later.

I find that WRs tend to be forgotten compared to RBs. Sure people still have at least half their budgets when WRs start coming off the board but by then the mentality has likely changed. While before people are pushing and shoving to grab that top back they'll be less inclined to grab a wideout, especially after just grabbing a RB (of course I'm generalizing and also speculating). While I have very little evidence to back this up, I find that the first few WRs thrown out, say the first 1-3 tend to be at better value then the ones after, even if those first few are higher ranked (is that too confusing?).

QBs are the last "big" position behind RBs and WRs and I find them somewhere in the middle. You can bank on Peyton being thrown out in the first 15 picks, just like in a snake and he's usually never good value. QB value really depends on where they fall to but generally the top 3 or 4 QBs even worth trying for unless you have them ranked really high.


Back to the point about RBs I made earlier, like I said, most top backs are hard to find value in as they are bid on by nearly every owner. This gives me two responses, a) I jump in the bidding and grab 1 or even 2 of these guys b)I hold back. Here's the thing, with option a you'll generally have one guy ranked higher than average in the top 10 and you'll go after him. This in my opinion can lead to problems. Let's say you're in a $100 12-teamer. You put up 30+ bucks on a guy like Parker or Westy or 40+ bucks on a guy like LJ and you've effectively spent between 1/3 and 2/5 of your budget on 1 guy. Now of course these guys are great and I'm not completely criticizing the move, but, the volatility of backs in the top 10 from year to year really turns me off this route. If 50% of the backs return to the top 10 year-to-year that's good (there's a thread on this somewhere around here), I'd say 40% is likely.

Here's my situation last year: I shell out at least a 1/3 of my budget to land Lamont and he's a colossal bust. Bad choice on my part, probably, but it's turned me off grabbing one of these guys early. The difference between an auction and snake is that in a snake everybody is worth exactly the same in a sense. Draft position/order does give some value but it's much much easier to acquire mid-range talent after say grabbing LT then it is in an auction.

I find that by grabbing a RB later, say a 12-16th rated one, you can round out your RB corps a bit better by having the ability to grab more RBs late in the $5-10 range. Mid-range guys that are often the ones that can break out (i.e. Gore, Addai, even Deuce from '06). You also ensure that you likely won't over-pay on your first back.


The other thing I wanted to talk about is the concept of being patient, a strategy often thrown about when "auction strategy" is mentioned. Sure being patient is great at the start (as I have mentioned early) when should you start buying? To me there is a very very fine line between being patient and smart and being patient and stupid (for lack of better terms). Personally, I always have trouble with this. There will often be times in a draft where I will think I have too much money, or too little. The problem is by the mid-late range of the draft having too much money can be a burden. By having very little and a max bid of 1 or 2, sure you have little chance of getting anybody and can be easily outbid but you really can't worry about overbidding or letting players pass by. On the other hand if you have money you constantly have to decide to bid on guys either you want but may be a bit overpriced or you don't want but present good value.

The problem is that the later and later you wait, the less and less opportunity there will be to "steal" somebody. Sure, when everyone has 1 or 2 dollar max bids you can get anyone you want but by then there is nobody and it's almost impossible to find steals. Usually you'll just overbid on somebody because you want him and you got cash. Sure getting that $2 guy for a buck is great but you passed up the $8 guy that went for $5 earlier or the $12 guy that went for $7. It's impossible for me to give a clearcut strategy because all drafts are different and I don't completely comprehend this myself. That being said, I'd say by the time players start going in that $6-12 range is the best time to spend your remaining money. Any earlier and people still have plenty of money and any later and there is no value left. I'd leave maybe 1 spot left (other than D and K) to grab a guy you might want for a buck or 2 but no more.


Another thing I'd like to say is about nominating players. Many auction "tips" recommend you throw out guys you don't want early and guys you want late. I'm not gonna get into that completely, I'm only concerned with the end of the auction. In my auctions, by the very end it is tempting to throw out guys you want. However, I'd advise against it. Here's the reason: almost certainly you'll be throwing guys out for a buck. You usually can't be certain if anyone wants your guy so it's quite easy for someone to up to 2. The difference between 1 and 2 is alot at the end of the draft but the difference between 1 and 3 is even more, and that's what you'll have to pay if someone ups your 1. It's better to wait until someone throws the guy you want for 1 and grab him for 2. Most guys are hesistant at this point to go 3. That extra dollar from 1 to 2 is completely worth it IMO if you really value the guy. Of course once everybody's max bid is 1 don't worry about it.


The final thing is pretty trivial but I still see owners making this mistake. You should never ever be left with money on the table. However, it is possible that you have 1 or 2 spots left and money left, way more than you need. Assume you've got $13 or $14 left but only need a K and D. Sure you're overpaying but you might as well bid $6+ on the kicker or $9+ on the D. And If you've got 1 spot left use all your money, you've got nothing to lose.


Wow that was a lot of text.

Again, most of this is based upon a bunch of mocks I've done recently.

[Felix the Cat]

My issue with the "top RBs are overpriced in auctions, therefore don't go for them" is simple.

Having top RBs is how you win in fantasy football.

Sure, you can go for mediocre RBs and be all nice and happy that you theoretically won them for less than they are theoretically worth on your cheat sheet - but you'll have to console yourself with that theoretical happiness while you go 6-7 on the season. Sorry, but you're not going to win with a backfield of Jamal Lewis, Warrick Dunn and Fred Taylor, even if you did get them for 25% below your cheat sheet value.

It's the same principle as in an ordinary draft: premier RBs are so valuable that it is suicidal to intentionally fail to take one if given the chance. There's a reason that you never see Steve Smith or Marvin Harrison go in the first round.

[bobbing_headz]

My issue with the "top RBs are overpriced in auctions, therefore don't go for them" is simple.

Having top RBs is how you win in fantasy football.

Sure, you can go for mediocre RBs and be all nice and happy that you theoretically won them for less than they are theoretically worth on your cheat sheet - but you'll have to console yourself with that theoretical happiness while you go 6-7 on the season. Sorry, but you're not going to win with a backfield of Jamal Lewis, Warrick Dunn and Fred Taylor, even if you did get them for 25% below your cheat sheet value.

It's the same principle as in an ordinary draft: premier RBs are so valuable that it is suicidal to intentionally fail to take one if given the chance. There's a reason that you never see Steve Smith or Marvin Harrison go in the first round.

I see what you're saying and there is some truth to it. However, the difference between an ordinary draft and an auction is that you can get any player, and theorectically could get value on any player. Because of this I'd rather not overpay for a premier RB and load up on 2nd-3rd round RBs (the Edges, Portis', even the Browns or McGahees) for value. By taking a guy like LT or SJax for largely inflated values I'd equate it something along the lines of giving up your 2nd or 3rd pick in a snake, something that is certainly not worth it. That value translates in improvement at other positions. I never said get Lewis, Dunn and Taylor as your top backs, merely backups. Like I mentioned in another piece I wrote earlier, the difference between about RB8 and RB16 or Rb17 is dropping. To me, there are only about 6-7, maybe 8 true premier backs. What happens if you draft 11th or 12th in a snake? Do you automatically lose? No. And you combat it by grabbing two solid backs and adding more backs later (vs. taking an LT and being "set"). Essentially, I'm attempting to translate the strategy of a 11th or 12th pick into the auction.

[bobbing_headz]

To add further, yes having a top RB can win you the league but I think you are referring to guys like LT, SJax or LJ. That's 3 guys who scored massive amounts of points. I'm not gonna get into VBD but I'll say that if you are merely average at RB - in a 12 teamer the worst starter would be RB24 (start 2RB) so average would be like RB12 and RB13 - you would still have a chance if you have a top5 QB, 2 top 5 WRs, a top 3 TE, etc. RBs are good but RBs past about RB5 or RB6 are too overrated for the value they are going for, especially if you look at point difference between about RB8-9 and as far as RB17-20.

Read this I wrote for an attempted explanation:
http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=330417

[Azrael]

The thing I love about the auction is it allows you to build so many different strategies. Where in a draft, depending on your draft position, you are boxed into a few different strategies and depending on where you draft only a certain core of players will be available to you. For example, if you like to have your top 2 RBs be Portis, McGahee, Larry Fitzgerald and TJ Housh as your starting running backs and wideouts, this will most likely never happen because Portis and McGahee are both 2nd rounders and Fitz is an early-mid 3rd rounder while Housh generally doesn't make it back past the middle of the 4th round. I can see you putting this team together though easily in an auction. Portis and McGahee will both present some value at RB. Fitzgerald will be relatively expensive but Housh won't be overpriced. Plus people sort of lose track of value in an auction because players are not taken off the board as they are numerically ranked like they do in a draft.

I haven't done much auction mocking this year but I find that guys with concerns like Jamal Lewis or Ahman Green who are generally 5th or 6th round picks taken as flex players or backup RBs become even cheaper in an auction than their draft value. You want to be sure you get a good 3 or 4 core scorers. Like exemplified above, you may "give up" a 1st rounder but you may get two 2nd rounders and an early 3rd or early 4th.

Then you may be able to steal a solid producing QB such as a Rivers for a couple bucks.

[bobbing_headz]

The thing I love about the auction is it allows you to build so many different strategies. Where in a draft, depending on your draft position, you are boxed into a few different strategies and depending on where you draft only a certain core of players will be available to you. For example, if you like to have your top 2 RBs be Portis, McGahee, Larry Fitzgerald and TJ Housh as your starting running backs and wideouts, this will most likely never happen because Portis and McGahee are both 2nd rounders and Fitz is an early-mid 3rd rounder while Housh generally doesn't make it back past the middle of the 4th round. I can see you putting this team together though easily in an auction. Portis and McGahee will both present some value at RB. Fitzgerald will be relatively expensive but Housh won't be overpriced. Plus people sort of lose track of value in an auction because players are not taken off the board as they are numerically ranked like they do in a draft.

I haven't done much auction mocking this year but I find that guys with concerns like Jamal Lewis or Ahman Green who are generally 5th or 6th round picks taken as flex players or backup RBs become even cheaper in an auction than their draft value. You want to be sure you get a good 3 or 4 core scorers. Like exemplified above, you may "give up" a 1st rounder but you may get two 2nd rounders and an early 3rd or early 4th.

Then you may be able to steal a solid producing QB such as a Rivers for a couple bucks.

You've got it right that auctions produce much more varied scenarios then the boxed-in feeling that a snake provides.

I do disagree with your scenario with Portis and Willis as your top backs. I do agree they present good value but you could (and should) do much better than Fitz as your top WR.

I generally find in auctions it's much easier to put together great WR corps. With your suggestion of Willis and Portis you could very likely snag a Holt or Steve Smith with Fitz and say an Evans or Driver as a backup, all without spending more than 3/5 - 3/4 of your budget.

For me in an auction QB is generally the position to wait on (like mentioned). Very easy to snag a platoon of solid QBs in the Rivers, Cutler, Eli, Favre range, etc. For $2-5. Most owners generally won't overspend on a QB after the first 7-10 have gone of the board.

[Dexter II]

The other thing I wanted to talk about is the concept of being patient, a strategy often thrown about when "auction strategy" is mentioned. Sure being patient is great at the start (as I have mentioned early) when should you start buying? To me there is a very very fine line between being patient and smart and being patient and stupid (for lack of better terms).

You make a lot of good points. There is a definite point at which you need to stop being patient and start spending. If you miss this you end up with plenty of money but few players you want to spend it on.

Another thing I'd like to say is about nominating players. Many auction "tips" recommend you throw out guys you don't want early and guys you want late. I'm not gonna get into that completely, I'm only concerned with the end of the auction. In my auctions, by the very end it is tempting to throw out guys you want. However, I'd advise against it. Here's the reason: almost certainly you'll be throwing guys out for a buck. You usually can't be certain if anyone wants your guy so it's quite easy for someone to up to 2. The difference between 1 and 2 is alot at the end of the draft but the difference between 1 and 3 is even more, and that's what you'll have to pay if someone ups your 1. It's better to wait until someone throws the guy you want for 1 and grab him for 2. Most guys are hesistant at this point to go 3. That extra dollar from 1 to 2 is completely worth it IMO if you really value the guy. Of course once everybody's max bid is 1 don't worry about it.

Generally I tend to nominate guys I do want late in auctions (last 2 or 3 roster spots) but start them off at $2 because there is less chance another owner goes to 3. It doesn't always work but usually does. I also try not to nominate guys I don't want because there is decent chance no one else wants them either and then that player takes up a roster spot.

[Crippler]

The difference between a snake and auction draft is that in a snake draft, every single person is guaranteed to land 2 top-20 ranked players (at least on their cheat sheet) as well as one of the top-10 (assuming it is a 10 person draft). When you are in an auction, it is necessary (and not necessarily a bad strategy) to overpay just a little on at least one of the top-10 backs. A few different owners could spend most of their money on more than two of the top-20 backs, leaving you only with a bunch of mediocre backs to spend on.

Here's a vague example:

Say that team 1 and team 2 both buy 3 of the top-20 backs, leaving the other 8 managers with the 14 remaining. 7 of those managers overpay a little to get 2 top-20 backs...leaving the 1 remaining manager (you) with the 20th best back to build his team around. Uh oh...

Team 1 and 2 both get crushed in the season because they spent all their money on only 3 players.

The 7 managers who got 2 top backs each all contend in the playoffs.

You also get crushed because your best player (who you got a good value on...) only performed so-so throughout the season (as would be expected). If you would have spent that extra $3 on a stud RB who performed up to but not exceeding his value, you would have had a lot better chance at winning.

It is often necessary to overpay just a little to make sure you get one of the top backs and give yourself a good chance to win. That extra $2 could be the difference between getting a top back to build your team around and being left with a bunch of RBBC and bad-team RBs to carry your team (which wont turn out too well).

One stud is worth a LOT more in fantasy football than multiple RBBC RBs or backups (which you could probably get good value on if the studs are overpaid for).

Make sure to get a top RB or you'll have very little chance to contend (unless you get lucky)

[aaawall91]

I havent read through it all already, but I'd like to throw something out there...
I think the reason LT and other high level RBs tend to go first is because they take the most salary so you can form a roster around that...otherwise if the top 5 RBs went near the end of the draft, chances are that one smart owner may be able to get 2-3 of them pretty cheap.

Not to mention throwing those backs out there kinda sets the value for everyone else, yes you may have a set value going in you want to pay, but if LT goes for $40 and S-jax for $39 and your thinking of placing a bid on Gore, who you originally priced at $41 on your draft sheet...are you going to make a bid of 41 for him? not a chance, because then you will be in a far worse situation to form a winning team by having a less superior RB and less money to spend on the rest of your team.

[The Lung]

Hey guys,

Speaking of Tomlinson and his auction price, here's a very timely article from Fanball on this very subject: http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=10174

By Christian Peterson, Senior Editor

The Price is Wrong

LaDainian Tomlinson is very, very good.

Even better, he's very, very consistent.

As a brief reminder, here are his numbers:

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (Career)RUSHING RECEIVING
Year G Rush Yds Yds/G YPC TD Rec Yds TD
2001 16 339 1,236 77.3 3.6 10 59 367 0
2002 16 372 1,683 105.2 4.5 14 79 489 1
2003 16 313 1,645 102.8 5.3 13 100 725 4
2004 15 339 1,335 89.0 3.9 17 53 441 1
2005 16 339 1,462 91.4 4.3 18 51 370 2
2006 16 348 1,815 113.4 5.2 28 56 508 3
Avg 16 342 1,529 96.6 4.5 17 66 483 2

Why is it helpful to see LT's career numbers? Everyone knows how good he is, you say?

Here's the thing: I don't think you do realize just how good he is.

The fact that he has averaged just over 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns per season in his career is nearly incomprehensible. Other no-brainer No. 1 running backs like Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes have come and gone, but neither displayed anything close to the consistency Tomlinson has displayed.

LT has also never missed a game in his career, a virtually unheard-of level of durability for a featured running back in the NFL.

I know I don't need to convince you that Tomlinson is the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy football this year. But, and now we get to the point of this article, we do have some work to do in regards to his auction value.

So far this mock draft season, I have participated in five mock auctions. I was able to land Tomlinson for an average of $44 in three of them. He went for $46 and $47 (both in 12-team auctions, which by default should result in slightly higher prices) in the two auctions I opted not to grab him in because I was experimenting with different strategies.

Steven Jackson has been purchased for an average of $39 in the same five auctions.

Really? A player whose only good season amounted to little more than one of the average seasons throughout LT's six year career is only worth $5 less than LT? Surely you can't be serious.

Before we get to just how much Tomlinson should be worth, let's travel back in time a bit.

Using old dog-eared copies of Fantasy Football Weekly Annual and Draft Guides I have on hand here at Fanball Worldwide, here is a sampling of the auction values of selected players over the last several years:

2003: Clinton Portis ($46), Deuce McAllister ($45), Ricky Williams ($48), Tomlinson ($51), Shaun Alexander ($50)
2004: Ahman Green ($42), Clinton Portis ($40), Holmes ($53)
2005: Holmes ($40), Tomlinson ($45), Alexander ($39)
2006: Alexander ($42), Tomlinson ($41), Larry Johnson ($44)

I wasn't around in 2003, so I can't explain why five players went for at least $45. I was around in 2004, and I distinctly remember Holmes going for over $50 in every auction I was in – real or mock – after a 2003 season that was very similar to LT's last year.

Perhaps because of Holmes' fate (he got hurt halfway through 2004 and was never the same), we've become gun-shy about investing so much in a player given the always-present threat of injury. I certainly understand that fear, but remember how Tomlinson has never missed a game? Sure, the danger is there, but if you spend $37-$40 on Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson, your season is still over if your top pick goes down… nothing changes just because you had 10 more dollars to spread out across your remaining roster.

Changing gears, for the first time ever we held an "expert's" mock auction in the upcoming FFW Draft Guide that will be on newsstands in August. In said auction, Tomlinson was purchased for $61 by a non-Fanball expert. As the auction unfolded online, the winning bid was roundly criticized, ridiculed, and disbelieved by the majority of the Fanball editors within the confines of our cozy little office.

But is $61 really so crazy?

Last year, Tomlinson put up just over 308 fantasy points in a typical 50-50 league (1 point per 20 yards rush/receive, 6 points per touchdown). LJ was next at just shy of 224. To put that in perspective, the difference between LT and the No. 2 player was the rough equivalent of Laurence Maroney, who put up 89 fantasy points. In other words, holding all other things constant, I could have employed LT and only been allowed to start one running back and someone with a very respectable backfield of Johnson and Maroney would have only just barely beaten me. Put yet a different way, an owner with a starting backfield of Tiki Barber and Rudi Johnson (who cost $59 combined in last year's FFW Annual mock auction) would have come up 29 fantasy points shy – say, 200 yards and three touchdowns – of matching Tomlinson alone.

Even if LT doesn't shatter any more NFL records in 2007, based on the average stats shown above his downside is still better than the upside of any player outside of LJ. But that sense of security – and the upside of another 2,000-yard, 30-touchdown season – is only worth five more dollars than gambling on Steven Jackson repeating his breakout 2006 season?

I beg to differ. I'm not smart enough to come up with a fool-proof statistical method of assigning auction values, but I designed an extremely rudimentary experiment that returned surprisingly accurate results.

For my simplistic analysis, I assumed a 10-team league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, and a tight end. I then took the top-20 fantasy wideouts based on last year's stats, the top 20 running backs, and the top 10 tight ends and quarterbacks and combined them into one list.

In total, those 60 players combined to score just under 7,500 fantasy points last year. Given that, in this theoretical league, there would have been 1,000 dollars available to purchase players on auction day ($100 salary cap times 10 owners), I determined that each dollar would have been worth 7.5 fantasy points last year. Next, I divided each players 2006 fantasy points by 7.5 to come up with how many dollars they "earned" a year ago.

Tomlinson was worth $41 using this method, followed by LJ at $30 and Jackson at $28. However, this method also assigned far too much value to quarterbacks, where Peyton Manning was worth $28, Drew Brees $22, and so on. There are plenty of ways to correct for this problem, but the easiest way for our simplistic purposes is to just hack 10 bucks off all of the quarterback values. Based on the current market, paying $18 for Peyton isn't too far out of range, nor is shelling out $12 for Brees.

If you must know, the top receiver using the above analysis was Marvin Harrison at just under $19, followed by Terrell Owens at $18. Tight ends were also a bit overvalued after Antonio Gates ($13), but overall I was pleasantly surprised at how close my dumbed-down statistical model came to the prices I've witnessed in actual auctions over the last several months.

Back to LT, if we add the 10 bucks we shaved from each quarterback back into the running back rankings, Tomlinson is up over $50, where I think he should be. More importantly, he earned $12 more than LJ and Jackson last year, which again illustrates that he should be valued at more than $50 (assuming you agree that S-Jax and LJ are the clear-cut Nos. 2 and 3 running backs and that paying just shy of $40 for those two is a fair price).

The big hurdle to jump, of course, is spending over half of your allotted budget on a single player. In the real world with my own hard-earned chips on the table, I'd probably start to get a little queasy once the bidding approached the mid-50s.

If I had spent $55 on LT in our most recent auction, I could have rounded out my lineup as follows:

QB: Tom Brady ($7)
RB: Tomlinson ($55)
RB: Brandon Jacobs/ Marshawn Lynch/ DeAngelo Williams/ Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor ($11)
WR: Marques Colston ($11)
WR: Plaxico Burress ($8)
TE: Todd Heap ($1)
B1: Michael Turner ($1)
B2: LaMont Jordan ($3)
B3: D.J. Hackett ($1)
B4: Santonio Holmes ($1)
B5: Tony Romo ($1)

There's an obvious lack of depth here, but given LT's projected dominance, it would be very tough to beat this team on a weekly basis. Allowing $10-$11 for the No. 2 running back spot allows one to go a number of different ways, so you'd simply draft whichever of the sleeper types in that range you felt most comfortable with. If any of them hit big, you'd win your league easily. If not, with $20 to spend at wide receiver and a rock-solid quarterback, you still have a well-rounded enough team to stay in the mix.

Even if I spent $60, I'd feel fine downgrading from Brady to Jon Kitna ($3 savings) and settling for Andre or Calvin Johnson instead of Plax.

Obviously, every auction is different and it only takes one like-minded person to drive up the bidding on a stud player like LT. As an aside: I know for a fact fellow editor Ted Carlson would drive the price up into the upper 40s, but he had committed to different strategies in several of the five mock auctions we've had. Ted and I are the only two Fanballers who have grabbed LT in our auctions, as a matter of fact.

But if I can get Tomlinson for $45 or less at any of my "real" auctions this year, I will not hesitate for one second to pull the trigger, nor will I hesitate to stay in the bidding even as he approaches the $50 glass ceiling. And I am extremely confident I'll waltz to a title or two if the other members of those leagues opt to allow him to be purchased at a discount.