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P. Manning value uprising

Postby northcuttfan » Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:40 pm

with some major losses to the colts defense they will probably go back to having to score 40 a game which makes me think they mite be behind in some games and manning will chuck it up more possibly making the value of wayne harrison and manning go up more?
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Re: P. Manning value uprising

Postby iky » Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:56 pm

I think it went up when he won Super Bowl. How much higher to u think he can go?
Useless thread, imho. :-t
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Re: P. Manning value uprising

Postby PMoneyTKE » Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:36 pm

iky wrote:I think it went up when he won Super Bowl. How much higher to u think he can go?
Useless thread, imho. :-t


First off, what does winning a Super Bowl have to do with fantasy value??

Secondly, I think its a valid point and I find this thread a lot less Useless then all the posts i've read from you today... :-t

To answer your question I think you're probably right, but I wouldn't expect another 49 touchdown year from Manning...I think the Colts Defense is going to be a lot better than most think this year...but of course i'm a homer so of course I think that :-b
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Re: P. Manning value uprising

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:46 pm

I agree that the Colts defense will be better than people think, especially in the passing game. One of the big things with the cover 2 defense is that the personnel matters very little in comparison to other defensive schemes. Sure you have to at least have decent players but you don't really need the great players on defense except perhaps a couple playmakers at LB and the safety positions. They have a very solid MLB in Gary Brackett, and a fantastic safety in Bob Sanders. The CBs entering the starting positions this year are going to definitely be good enough to keep that pass defense where it was last year and it could be even better with a healthy Sanders.

The Colts also draft LBs all the time and never really with the intent to start them immediately. Keiaho will be stepping in this year for Cato June and from what I've heard he's looking like a very promising 2nd year player. Really though, I would expect the run defense to be better than they were during the season last year and the pass defense will always be solid in that tampa 2 defense that Dungy runs so well.

That being said, Manning will likely play similarly to how he played last year. Manning has really matured especially in the past few years with knowing how to take what the defense is giving him and the Colts offense has been darn near unstoppable as a result. Teams last year were content to take away the deep route from the Colts and so Manning was more than happy to hand the ball off plenty and go with some shorter patterns for longer drives. I don't think you'll see much of a change there because I doubt defenses will be any less happy this year to give up those big plays. I think you'll likely see a lot of the same types of games you saw last year offensively from Indy.
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Re: P. Manning value uprising

Postby steelerfan513 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:54 pm

The only player the Colts lost was Cato June, and although that will probably hurt a little, linebackers are more replaceable than other defensive positions. I wouldn't expect much of a change in Manning's value.
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Re: P. Manning value uprising

Postby doublej73 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 4:54 pm

I could see a small uptick in Manning's production based on having a healthy # 3 receiver, which they lacked last season. However, I wouldn't expect to see it go up much. Manning tied his career high for rushing TD's (four) last year, and his 31 passing TD's was his third highest. (49, 33). Taking out the 49 TD explosion, 2006 was actually Peyton's best season for total TDs at 35 (31 passing, 4 rushing) and his passing yardage was his third highest. Actually, after looking at these stats I would expect the same or maybe even slightly less from Manning this year vs. last year, based on his career history.

The run defense certainly can't be any worse than last year's regular season version!
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Re: P. Manning value uprising

Postby Free Bagel » Fri Jul 20, 2007 6:01 pm

There's no way Peyton runs for 4 TDs again - that was an aberration if I've ever seen one. As such, I think Peyton owners should feel lucky getting a repeat of last season (which was his 2nd best). I can't see the numbers going up.
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Re: P. Manning value uprising

Postby aaawall91 » Sat Jul 21, 2007 2:40 am

I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers go up from last year.

- The Colts Run Defense HAS to be better than last year, which will result in more passing on it by other teams. Which in theory should result in more time of possession for the Colts.

-His receivers are only getting better
Harrison is getting up there, but the older receivers get the better at catching they become, even if he loses a half a step he will more than make up for it with sure hands (which would be a sinful lie to say he didn't have before). Wayne, another year more experience, may even take a closer look at his technique and little things from what I imagine him helping mentor Gonzalez and he will notice things about him self through them. Dallas Clark, same story, another year should be that much better (Top receiver in terms of yards in the playoffs last year...which means its only comparable to Chicago wide receivers which is... irrelevant and the other Colts WRs which says something) AS well as the other wide receivers [Flethcer, Utecht]. Gonzalez, I see him being an improvement over who ever was at the #3 WR spot at any given time last year (Stokley, Moorehead, etc).

-Last year Addai had 50 (caught 40) Targets to Rhodes 46 (caught 36). Addai had more Rushing attempts 226 to 187.
Now this can say a few things but. Addai was a better receiver (percentage of balls target/caught) and was thrown to more often. With him in the backfield much more this year (even with spells by Dorsey), I can't imagine them putting too much of a bigger rushing load on him right away, more so in general I doubt it will be on the ground more so this year than last with the veteran rusher having left, who had a decent sized role in the offense. so I expect those non-rushing plays to turn into passing plays, some of which will be dump-offs, which will be points for Peyton. And it appears they have trust in Addai as a receiver, and it sounds like hes pretty smart, which is good for their system.

- Peyton scoring 4 TDs wont be a repeat, hes too valuable to be exposed like that as often as he was.

...So in theory more possession time for the Colts offense, less rushing than last year, less rushing (and TDs for that matter) for Peyton...must result in more passing, No?
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Re: P. Manning value uprising

Postby stomperrob » Sat Jul 21, 2007 3:40 am

"uprising" - unusual choice of words, I thought from the title of the thread there was rioting in the streets over his value! ;-) ;-7 :-b
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Re: P. Manning value uprising

Postby bobbing_headz » Sat Jul 21, 2007 4:09 am

I actually can't see any reason really why he'll do much better.

- The colts D really hasn't changed all that much. It's not so much the players but the scheme that's the same and it will likely perform about the same as it always does.

- A rookie #3 WR really isn't gonna make any difference. Gonzalez in his rookie year is no better than what they had.

- The loss of Rhodes could mean more passing but I doubt it is a boon. The load on Addai could hurt Indy's running game a bit which has always served to open up the pass. (Recall that Peyton's 33 and 49 TD seasons coincided with Edge's two highest yardage seasons)
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