aaawall91 wrote:I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers go up from last year.
- The Colts Run Defense HAS to be better than last year, which will result in more passing on it by other teams. Which in theory should result in more time of possession for the Colts.
-His receivers are only getting better
Harrison is getting up there, but the older receivers get the better at catching they become, even if he loses a half a step he will more than make up for it with sure hands (which would be a sinful lie to say he didn't have before). Wayne, another year more experience, may even take a closer look at his technique and little things from what I imagine him helping mentor Gonzalez and he will notice things about him self through them. Dallas Clark, same story, another year should be that much better (Top receiver in terms of yards in the playoffs last year...which means its only comparable to Chicago wide receivers which is... irrelevant and the other Colts WRs which says something) AS well as the other wide receivers [Flethcer, Utecht]. Gonzalez, I see him being an improvement over who ever was at the #3 WR spot at any given time last year (Stokley, Moorehead, etc).
-Last year Addai had 50 (caught 40) Targets to Rhodes 46 (caught 36). Addai had more Rushing attempts 226 to 187.
Now this can say a few things but. Addai was a better receiver (percentage of balls target/caught) and was thrown to more often. With him in the backfield much more this year (even with spells by Dorsey), I can't imagine them putting too much of a bigger rushing load on him right away, more so in general I doubt it will be on the ground more so this year than last with the veteran rusher having left, who had a decent sized role in the offense. so I expect those non-rushing plays to turn into passing plays, some of which will be dump-offs, which will be points for Peyton. And it appears they have trust in Addai as a receiver, and it sounds like hes pretty smart, which is good for their system.
- Peyton scoring 4 TDs wont be a repeat, hes too valuable to be exposed like that as often as he was.
...So in theory more possession time for the Colts offense, less rushing than last year, less rushing (and TDs for that matter) for Peyton...must result in more passing, No?
The thing here is that this is all unsubstantiated theory that "sounds good", but hasn't really played itself out that way in practice.
A guy getting old gets better at catching which offsets losing a step? C'mon. By this logic WRs could play forever. Even greats like Jerry Rice and Tim Brown were nowhere near the same once they hit their mid 30's. Not to say that Harrison is going to drop off this year by any means, but let's not pretend that if he does "lose a step" it's just going to all work itself out because his already superior hands are going to improve even more in year 12 enough to offset that.
Also, less running = more passing sounds like something that would make sense. But in practice Peyton's best passing years have come in the years where Indy ran for the most yards. And Peyton's far and away worst season (aside from his rookie year) came in the year where Edge was injured and the rushing game struggled some. So in practice, it seems the exact polar opposite of what you say here is more the case with Peyton/Indy, if not most teams in general.