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Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

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Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby Axl's Army » Mon Jul 23, 2007 9:34 pm

Course I never drafted him (instead I took Michael Clayton as my WR2!!!) but some of you did.

I don't think any of us knew how awesome of a year he was going to have, but were there a few things that tipped you off about him? I would give anything to be able to find that kind of value in the middle rounds.

I really want a solid WR1 but am leery of spending a pick on one because we allow you to start a 3rd RB at the Flex and scoring DOESN'T FAVOR WRs (1 pt/10 yards, 6 pts per TD, & NO PPR). Marvin Harrison was the top WR last year & only scored 13 points per game.

To put that in perspective, 9 RBs averaged that many points & 9 QBs averaged that many points per game.

Anyways - my original question is, besides things like 3rd Year WRs, what things do you look for to discover the next Steve Smith? Were there indications going into that season that he would be the kind of stud he turned out to be, because I never saw it comin.
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Re: Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby Dolfin99 » Mon Jul 23, 2007 9:40 pm

I look at 5 things:

Coach and Offensive Coordinator - They will call the plays to allow a WR to get balls. The play ratio needs to favor WR.

QB - Obvious one

RB - If you have a solid RB, more attention will go towards him.

O Line - Your O-Line needs to give the QB time to get a solid pass off.

Other WR - If the other WR are decent, this will take a little attention away and could open the field a bit more.
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Re: Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby thriftyrocker » Mon Jul 23, 2007 9:54 pm

Smith was undervalued in 05 due to his injury the year before. He really broke out in 03 but then missed all but 1 game in 04 while Moose went wild. Really, the only guy who fits that mold this year is (cough) Randy Moss. He can still dominate, and people are looking past him based on how terrible he was last year. Well, and the year before that too.

But the new Steve Smith is Lee Evans. Buffalo doesn't have anyone else with any experience. Losman is developing and isn't afraid to force it to him all night long. With the components they lost on D, they might be throwing a lot. I wouldn't take him ahead of Smith, Harrison, Chad, Holt, TO, Wayne, or Fitzgerald, but I would take him over anyone else.
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Re: Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby TN_Titans_05 » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:07 pm

Dolfin99 wrote:I look at 5 things:

Coach and Offensive Coordinator - They will call the plays to allow a WR to get balls. The play ratio needs to favor WR.

QB - Obvious one

RB - If you have a solid RB, more attention will go towards him.

O Line - Your O-Line needs to give the QB time to get a solid pass off.

Other WR - If the other WR are decent, this will take a little attention away and could open the field a bit more.



I agree and if you dont want to spend and early pick on Smith, then I would take a chance on Santonio Holmes in the later rounds afer you already have your 3 starters. If you ask me he fits Dolphins mold perfectly and I think he should breakout and put up WR2 #s in a 12 team league
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Re: Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby deerayfan072 » Tue Jul 24, 2007 9:38 am

thriftyrocker wrote:Smith was undervalued in 05 due to his injury the year before. He really broke out in 03 but then missed all but 1 game in 04 while Moose went wild. Really, the only guy who fits that mold this year is (cough) Randy Moss. He can still dominate, and people are looking past him based on how terrible he was last year. Well, and the year before that too.

But the new Steve Smith is Lee Evans. Buffalo doesn't have anyone else with any experience. Losman is developing and isn't afraid to force it to him all night long. With the components they lost on D, they might be throwing a lot. I wouldn't take him ahead of Smith, Harrison, Chad, Holt, TO, Wayne, or Fitzgerald, but I would take him over anyone else.


not me ;-) B-)
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Re: Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby petedog9 » Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:15 am

TN_Titans_05 wrote:
I agree and if you dont want to spend and early pick on Smith, then I would take a chance on Santonio Holmes in the later rounds afer you already have your 3 starters. If you ask me he fits Dolphins mold perfectly and I think he should breakout and put up WR2 #s in a 12 team league


Dolphins???? Holmes is on the Steelers... Did you mean the Steelers or were you referring to Ted Ginn Jr.???

I also like Santonio Holmes alot this year as a breakout candidate. Bruce Arians is the new O-cord in Pitt and he was the former WR coach. He is going to a 4wr base package and allowing Ben to make decisions at the line ala Manning.... It should open up the offense alot more. Wether or not it works in the real world is one thing, but in fantasy, it should mean solid numbers for both Hines and Santonio... Look back to the Tommy Gun year when both Plex and Hines were top 10 wrs in fantasy. It may resemble something close to that....
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Re: Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby TN_Titans_05 » Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:23 am

petedog9 wrote:
TN_Titans_05 wrote:
I agree and if you dont want to spend and early pick on Smith, then I would take a chance on Santonio Holmes in the later rounds afer you already have your 3 starters. If you ask me he fits Dolphins mold perfectly and I think he should breakout and put up WR2 #s in a 12 team league


Dolphins???? Holmes is on the Steelers... Did you mean the Steelers or were you referring to Ted Ginn Jr.???




I mean Dolphins' as in the poster that posted two posts ahead of me, not the team.....
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Re: Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby bagobonez » Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:30 am

Steve SMith blew up for a few reasons. Chief among them is the fact that there were no good WR's on the roster in '05. When you're the only viable option in the passing game, you're going to get alot of receptions. Delhomme pretty much stares Smith down and throws him the ball just about every play. The running game, while not great, was decent enough to keep defenses somewhat honest. Combine that with a great talent like Smith, who can take a short pass and burn defenses all the way to the end zone, and I think that's the biggest reason he was such a stud in '05.

Having said that, I think one of the biggest sleeper candidates is Santana Moss. Just 2 years ago he had 1,400 yards. Aside from Cooley, Moss is the Redskins' only decent weapon in the passing game. Jason Campbell's likely going to look his way and look his way often. The running game's going to be good enough to keep defenses honest and make them pay if they put too much attention on Moss. Moss is also the kind of guy that can take a screen pass and turn it into 6 points.

My other sleeper is Darrell Jackson. Jackson was 4th amongst WR's in fantasy points per game. He was one of only 5 WR's to score 10 or more TD's and he missed over 2 games. He goes to a situation in San Fran where he will be the only reliable WR. Vernon Davis may get some looks, but even he is unproven. And for a young QB like Alex Smith that's still learning the ropes, you better believe he's going to lean on Jackson alot. Frank Gore's good enough to keep defenses honest.

I think guys like this have much more upside than someone like Anquan Boldin who will likely put up 1,000 yards and 4 or 5 TD's, but has no real upside, especially in Whisenhunt's offense, yet Boldin is routinely drafted ahead of guys like S.Moss and D.Jackson. I don't get it.
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Re: Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby petedog9 » Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:02 pm

TN_Titans_05 wrote:
petedog9 wrote:
TN_Titans_05 wrote:
I agree and if you dont want to spend and early pick on Smith, then I would take a chance on Santonio Holmes in the later rounds afer you already have your 3 starters. If you ask me he fits Dolphins mold perfectly and I think he should breakout and put up WR2 #s in a 12 team league


Dolphins???? Holmes is on the Steelers... Did you mean the Steelers or were you referring to Ted Ginn Jr.???




I mean Dolphins' as in the poster that posted two posts ahead of me, not the team.....


AIGHT... My bad... I see what you are saying now.... ;-D I agree with you...
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Re: Ahh, Remember When Steve Smith was a 6th Rd Pick back in '05

Postby CBMGreatOne » Tue Jul 24, 2007 4:14 pm

I actually more clearly remember when I made him a fourth round pick in '04. Oh what might have been. :~(

As for others mentioned. I believe that Boldin's low TD total last year was an anomaly. Lord knows I love Santana Moss, but I still wouldn't think of drafting Moss ahead of Boldin. Boldin actually was one of league leaders in YAC yardage. I like Moss and Jackson as mid-level WR2s with a ton of upside. Boldin is more of a low end WR1, or at least high end WR2. Moss and Jackson might have a better chance to be superstars this year, but Boldin has a better chance to be a steady fantasy contributor. That said, others rank Boldin higher than I do, so I probably won't get him, which is fine by me.

I really like the Evans comparison though. He is in a very similar situation to what Steve Smith was. One thing that leads me to agree with Bonez about Smith benefitting from Delhomme's tunnel vision is the success that Muhsin Muhammad had in 2004 once Smith went down. That year, he was almost every bit as good as Steve Smith was the following season. Losman has a similar thing going on with Evans and if the running game with Marshawn clicks early, I expect more deep TDs between the two.
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