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My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

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My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby bobbing_headz » Mon Jul 23, 2007 11:36 pm

I just finished my early QB rankings and thought I'd put them out. Scoring is based on 1/20 passing, 4/pass td, 1/10 rush, 6/rush td. -2 for ints and fumbles. I've only gone up to QB25 (I have more but too lazy to put them up). I've also made tiers.

BTW, it's a pain in the ass to get tables onto the site. I had to convert my excel doc to a pdf and post it as an image. If there's an easier way to do it would someone please tell me?

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- Vick is obviously a big question mark as I'd say there is a 50/50 chance right now he doesn't play. I'm assuming he plays a full season here obviously

-I'm a bit surprised at how high Big Ben came out. I expect the Steelers to pass a lot more this year though and Ben is over those awful injuries from last year.

- Even if Young has pretty bad passing numbers he's still gonna put up great fantasy points assuming he rushes like he did last year. My only concern is that teams start focusing solely on that.

- I'm pretty high on Losman this year. I feel my projections are more like a minimum and he has the potential to perform probably 3-4 TDs and a couple hundred yards better.

- Leinart is really low. I'm not that high on him this year with a new head coach who should focus more on the running game. Plus I wasn't that impressed with Leinart last year. I think he takes at least another year before he matures fully.

I'll post the rest of my rankings when I finish them, likely throughout the week.
Last edited by bobbing_headz on Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby eaglesrule » Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:44 am

I think you have vick, kitna, mcnabb in the exact wrong order. We have been through this before, and obviously donovan is dependant on injury. That being said, unless I made a mistake, kitna ends up 7 points better on the season. However, don't you find it a bit off that Kitna, Hasselbeck, Big Ben, Romo, Losman, Alex Smith, Tavarius Jackson, Chad Pennington, Leftwhich are all outrushing mcnabb according to your rankings? Injury or not, something is wrong in mudville with that analaysis. He averages 340 rush yards per season, and that is WITH three injury-shortened seasons. In 2005, he had 55 in 9 games, by far his worst total, which is more than half of what you are giving him credit for.

Now, I don't think he will be the Donovan of old, but his talent in that are of the game is much better than most of the names you have on this list. I highly doubt if he is healthy, (I know its an if, but according to your other totals, you seem to think he will be) this facet of the game will be ignored. Coming off the injury-plagued 2005, he still put up 200 in 10 games. If the knee is good to go, he will run, as in his case, the threat of execution is almost as good as doing it. But to keep the threat up, he is going to have to do it.

I just think best-case scenario, its going to be hard for Vick or Kitna beat mcnabb all else being equal (which granted, it isn't always). Kitna is a turnover machine, so he is going to have to put up monster yardage to tread water with the other big names, and we have seen in all likelihood the highpoint of vick's scoring, as its predicated on rushing. 1,000 yards give or take is probably about the high water mark. The only way his scoring is going to get appreciably better to take mcnabb (or romo, or some of the other younger guys) is to improve as a passer, and does anyone have faith in that at this stage of the game, especially with the controversy surrounding him and a new coaching staff that will have a shorter leash? Even vick at his best is inconsistent.

I also feel that Rivers and Hasselbeck are a little low for my liking, and am having a hard time putting Eli ahead of either of those two. Eli lost tiki to keep the pressure off, and hasn't been lighting it up with Tiki. Now he faces the Boys and Eagles twice, not to mention the Skins who should have an improved secondary. I think his divisional games will be awfully tough for him to put up good numbers, as they should be playing from behind more than they would like, and the defenses can sit on Eli. From what I have seen, he isn't so great in those situations, and forces it. I think the East games are too big of a chunk of his games to discount. I could be wrong on all of this though, just my opinion.
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Re: My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby J35J » Tue Jul 24, 2007 1:59 pm

Looks like you do you're rankings/projections similar to the way I do it as well. One thing I will do after I sort my spreadsheet based on the fantasy points (total) I have them at is then to tweak them a little. I don't go "just" by what my total tells me...sometimes you have to jump in and tweak things where necessary. Sometimes common sense needs to jump in and tell you that just because Player A is 2 points better than Player B based on you're projections Player A may have a higher upside that you need to take into consideration while Player B may have an injury history or a lower floor.

Anyway, just my opinion on how I do it. I use my "total" as a starting point and will tweak things a little from there.
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Re: My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby bobbing_headz » Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:40 pm

I like the feedback, keep it coming. On the point of how I sort the rankings, I do it on FP because I use VBD to rank. I haven't included any VBD values but I can do that next time if people want. I probably could have also posted atts,comp, Y/A, pct, etc. but they don't have any fanatasy relevance (in terms of points).

About McNabb, yes eaglesrule is right in that McNabb has lots of upside, yet I'm still skeptical about this season. He's very injury prone, so I've kind of tempered my expectations a bit, even though I've assumed he'll play the full season. His knee injury is certainly not going to help his running game. Maybe he'll rush for as high as 125-150 yards but I really can't see him being the McNabb of old. Saying he averages 340 a season is about as silly as saying McNair averages 300. McNabb hasn't rushed for more than 220 in four years. Horrible knee injury + age does not equal lots of rushing yards. I also believe the WRs he has are probably some of his worst ever.

Yes Hass is a bit low but there's no way he even comes close to his career high of 3841 yards and he'll probably not break his 2nd best 3459 2 years ago. He's getting old, his O-Line isn't what it used to be, Alexander is not the same 28 TD back and he's lost the best WR he had. Branch is a seriously questionable #1 WR in my opinion. Eli on the other hand, without Tiki is gonna be forced to throw a ton. I expect him to at least approach 575+ Attempts.
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Re: My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby CBMGreatOne » Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:22 pm

I like the list a lot, good to see Campbell getting some respect. I think it's just about time to omit Vick from the list entirely though. Given the exposure that the scandal has received up to this point, it looks like there's very little chance he plays this season, which isn't how I felt just a week or so ago, but appears inevitable now.

And sorry to nitpick, but it's a nice looking list, might as well spell McNabb's first name correctly:
Donovan
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Re: My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby eaglesrule » Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:28 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:About McNabb, yes eaglesrule is right in that McNabb has lots of upside, yet I'm still skeptical about this season. He's very injury prone, so I've kind of tempered my expectations a bit, even though I've assumed he'll play the full season. His knee injury is certainly not going to help his running game. Maybe he'll rush for as high as 125-150 yards but I really can't see him being the McNabb of old. Saying he averages 340 a season is about as silly as saying McNair averages 300. McNabb hasn't rushed for more than 220 in four years. Horrible knee injury + age does not equal lots of rushing yards. I also believe the WRs he has are probably some of his worst ever.


Ok, I'm not trying to be a homer here, but i feel compelled to respond to these, because I feel I know more about my own team than others.

The 340 comment was posted in the hopes of getting you to look at the stats. Yea, he hasn't had more than 220 in a season, but he has 212 in 10 games just last year. He may not comeback as the mcnabb of old, but part of him "being healthy" will be predicated on him being able to scramble, that's one of the things that makes him what he is. He doesn't do it for yardage unless necessary, anymore, but if you are going to give him credit for making it through a full season, credit to his run game should be given. Other than 2005 with the hernia, mcnabb has never had less than 200, and now you give him 80 in a "healthy" season? I jsut don't get it. His injury was not as bad as cpepp or carson's. it wasn't "horrible"--it was just bad. I get where you are coming from, but it seems like you randomly picked some stats, and I have a hard time believing some of those QBs listed will outrush mcnabb. But, that's why we play the game.

As far as WR's, can't agree with you there either, and besides his stats (except for the TO year) have never been predicated on having awesome WRs. Brown is the best receiver he has ever had not named TO. Curtis isn't Stallworth, but then again, stallworth missed time and was hit-or-miss when he did play. Basket and Avant have a lot of promise as well. I don't think as a unit the WRs are that good, probably around average, but between that, LJ smith and westbrook, he has more than enough weapons given his and the eagles' style, and has consistently proven the ability to get the job done without the awesome receivers. A highend #2, and competent, if unspectacular wr core is better than what he has ever had sans to. Na Brown, Pinkston, Thrash, Torrance Small, Freddie Mitchell? I don't think any of them are as decent as Curtis, and none of those listed have the potential of baskett.

Ultimately, to each his own, and I have no idea where mcnabb will end up. But if I were a betting man, if he plays a full season, he'll put up more than 80 some odd rushing yards, half the offense is predicated on the duality that teams have to respect--its one of the reasons the eagles lost so many in the first half of 2005, as mcnabb's mobility was compromised with the hernia suffered in game one. Even then he had 55 yards. So my feeling is if the knee is good enough for him to play, part of that diagnosis is going to be based on his mobility.
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Re: My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby eaglesrule » Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:34 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:I like the list a lot, good to see Campbell getting some respect. I think it's just about time to omit Vick from the list entirely though. Given the exposure that the scandal has received up to this point, it looks like there's very little chance he plays this season, which isn't how I felt just a week or so ago, but appears inevitable now.

And sorry to nitpick, but it's a nice looking list, might as well spell McNabb's first name correctly:
Donovan


Agreed. I wouldn't want to depend on campbell per se, but I think he is overlooked by a fair margin this year.
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Re: My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby Crippler » Tue Jul 24, 2007 5:46 pm

I dont think you give McNabb the respect he deserves...do you really think Vick will have a better fantasy year? 8-o :-? %-6
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Re: My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby bobbing_headz » Tue Jul 24, 2007 5:58 pm

Crippler wrote:I dont think you give McNabb the respect he deserves...do you really think Vick will have a better fantasy year? 8-o :-? %-6


Vick's rushing numbers give him the edge. That being said I not thinking Vick is gonna play this year.
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Re: My 07 QB Rankings w/ Proj/Comments

Postby Crippler » Tue Jul 24, 2007 6:01 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:
Crippler wrote:I dont think you give McNabb the respect he deserves...do you really think Vick will have a better fantasy year? 8-o :-? %-6


Vick's rushing numbers give him the edge. That being said I not thinking Vick is gonna play this year.


A) no they do not

B) then put a big, red line through hsi name and raking ;-)
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