Skill vs. Luck as relates to league size

[Demented Avenger]

Do larger leagues tend to minimize luck and maximize skill, or is it the other way around?

[abrunn11]

I do not think it makes too much of a difference. You could argue that a larger league (20 teams) is more based on luck because you cannot afford any injuries. Any flop or injured played is magnified the larger the league gets. The sad fact is that from season to season fantsy football is based largly on luck. The only way to judge fantasy football success is to take a 10 year sample, IMHO.

[dream_017]

Here is a previous discussion on Skill vs Luck


Here are others with some variation or discussion that turned into skill vs luck discussion:
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[RJ24VC15]

I think 10-12 team leagues require the most skill, and more luck is involved if you have less or more teams.

[bobbing_headz]

This reminds me, here's an interesting article I found a while ago on luck in FF:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/06freelance_tourek01.php

[J35J]

The luck to me mostly comes from the fact that you get you're points/totals from just 1 game a week (as opposed to 6 or so games a week in baseball for H2H) and then on top of that you only have 13 weeks for regular season and WORSE yet only 3-4 games in the playoffs. Its just like looking at small samples sizes and making judgements from that...it doesn't work...its just not a big enough sample size and luck affects small sample sizes soooo much more.

And then of course you have injuries and draft position, etc, etc.

[biju]

Every year I play in 3 league for sure: one 10 team, one 12 team, and one 14 team.

In the 10 team league I have never missed the playoffs.

In the 12 team league I am always at least on the bubble but don't always make the playoffs.

In the 14 team league I alternate between having great years and poor years.

So assuming that my skill doesn't change between drafts, one might say luck plays a factor more with larger leagues. Of course, what could be equally said is that I'm not very good at the #100-#140 picks, which are amplified in larger leagues because those are higher draft picks, but minimized in smaller league as they are low end draft picks.

What I've often believed however is that my earlier drafts tend to dictate what players I take in my later drafts. I know I shouldn't do that, but it happens anyway and I do have 3 or 4 players on every team. Am I reaching for those guys? Probably. And again it doesn't affect me as much in the smaller leagues, but in larger leagues reaching becomes a bigger problem. And, of course, my 14 team league is the last draft I have.

So in the end, I think larger leagues need more skill (and more discipline) for drafting, and more luck/great waiver wire pickups during the season. The luck however can be minimized by a great draft.

[Azrael]

It takes skill to consistently make the playoffs. It takes luck to win a championship.

[stomperrob]

I think the larger the league, the more skill comes into play. With more players being drafted, those late round picks become that much more important and those who know what they are doing will come out ahead - the talent pool gets pretty diluted at the end of a large draft so knowledge will be rewarded.

[cardiac cats]

I like what Azrael said... seems about right to me.