Skill vs. Luck as relates to league size

[flotsamnjetsam]

NOw, as for luck, I always knew it played a roll in this game but have seen 2 examples the last 2 years that blew my mind. Both competitive leagues, I believe both cafe leagues. 2 owners in 2 different leagues essentially went awol in say October or November. Never changed a lineup, made a move etc... for the final weeks of the season. They both won their respective leagues. Very frustrating to see this happen.

That happened in 2007 in the Cafe Devil's Castle Dynasty League. maddog60 never changed his lineup after October. He kept winning games in November & December (even though his TE was out for the season) and beat me in the league championship.

If that doesn't show how much luck is involved, nothing does.

Exactly, then add into that guys like LS2 or Flots actually winning leagues and you may as well just give up.

I only win when I stop setting my lineups in October.

An intersting article about skill vs. luck in fantasy football.

Here is what I get out of the article:

It takes skill to consistently make the playoffs. It takes luck to win a championship.

[Azrael]

Last year I made the playoffs in all 3 of my H2H leagues, lost in the semis in one and lost in the championship in the other 2. I had a so so team in the one and the best team in the league in the other (Warner (1pt), Peterson (8pts), T. Jones, (8pts), Westbrook (8pts), AJ (1pt), Marshall (13pts), Gonzo (12pts)). Perfect storm, 5 of my guys sucked that week compared to what they did all year and I lost.

[Wenchtamer]

It takes skill to consistently make the playoffs. It takes luck to win a championship.

/agree

I will also add that in my experience it goes like a parabola, or bell curve. 8 team leagues are basically a crapshoot because everyone has an all-star team. 10 team leagues get more competitive as they spread the player pool out a bit. 12 team leagues are the perfect balance, imo. 14 team leagues start to stretch the player pool too much, and also add in the fact that you are playing against many more teams and your chances of being the champion go down. By 16 teams, the pool is so shallow that everyone basically has 2-3 good players and everyone is depending way too much on having their late round guys/sleepers break out.

[bucs83]

I would have to agree 100% with what wenchtamer said. Nice work.