Anytime I look a VBD rankings, it seems certain players are ranked so much higher then their ADP, i've seen multiple WR's in the top 10 on the rankings, with one at early as 5. It doesnt seem to go along with other rankings at all.
RJ24VC15 wrote:Anytime I look a VBD rankings, it seems certain players are ranked so much higher then their ADP, i've seen multiple WR's in the top 10 on the rankings, with one at early as 5. It doesnt seem to go along with other rankings at all.
What are your thought on VBD?
Where have you seen those at? I create my own and at this point they are not completly finished, but I generally have 16 RB, 1 QB and 3 WR in the top 20. The first 10-13 are RBs.
It all depends on the scoring setting and VDB baselines you use. I use the footballguys spreadsheet application and if one position looks to be favored too much, I tweak it a bit.
I buy into it to the extent that it makes logical sense but it is not the be all and end all of creating a cheatsheet to draft from. You need to massage it, and use some common sense and judgement.
I'm big on VDB, but to use it effectively you can't base your entire draft on it. I mean, if you've already drafted Peyton and Bulger is your highest value you're not gonna draft him in the 4th. Or if Gates is your top guy you're not gonna take him in the 1st. VBD is merely another tool to "assist" you in your draft. Obviously you have to factor in ADP too, if you didn't, well you'd be kinda stupid. There are many times I'll abandon my VBD rankings completely, if someone falls way past their ADP, if I need to handcuff, if I have 2 RB and need a WR, or even in the later rounds of the draft taking a flier on a sleeper or rookie. The point is, if you use VBD you can't base your draft solely on it.
Now I hear a lot of people complain that VBD is flawed because you're basing your rankings on projections that will obviously be incorrect. That may be true but how is it different then just ranking people? You're "projecting" who will do better than someone else. With VBD you're merely projecting how much better you think one player will be than another. If your projections turn up rankings you think are wrong then change them, it's no big deal.
Heck, with Average Value Theory you're not even using wild assumptions for projections; you're on sound statistical ground, and in the end, fantasy football is a game of statistics.
That's not to say that VBD is all there is to drafting, because it doesn't take into account draft position, ADPs, and positional curves and tiers, and is incapable of "looking ahead" based on those factors. VBD will always get you the best value right now, but may not get you the best value over a multi-round window.
As far as I'm concerned, it's not a matter of "buying into" it. VBD is not a faith-based theory; it requires neither your belief nor your "buying in" to do what it is designed to do. However, you must realize that VBD alone cannot draft for you.
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bobbing_headz wrote:I'm big on VDB, but to use it effectively you can't base your entire draft on it. I mean, if you've already drafted Peyton and Bulger is your highest value you're not gonna draft him in the 4th. Or if Gates is your top guy you're not gonna take him in the 1st. VBD is merely another tool to "assist" you in your draft. Obviously you have to factor in ADP too, if you didn't, well you'd be kinda stupid. There are many times I'll abandon my VBD rankings completely, if someone falls way past their ADP, if I need to handcuff, if I have 2 RB and need a WR, or even in the later rounds of the draft taking a flier on a sleeper or rookie. The point is, if you use VBD you can't base your draft solely on it.
Now I hear a lot of people complain that VBD is flawed because you're basing your rankings on projections that will obviously be incorrect. That may be true but how is it different then just ranking people? You're "projecting" who will do better than someone else. With VBD you're merely projecting how much better you think one player will be than another. If your projections turn up rankings you think are wrong then change them, it's no big deal.
I'm pretty sure that if you use VBD, you won't be drafting Peyton Manning. Period..
bobbing_headz wrote:I'm big on VDB, but to use it effectively you can't base your entire draft on it. I mean, if you've already drafted Peyton and Bulger is your highest value you're not gonna draft him in the 4th. Or if Gates is your top guy you're not gonna take him in the 1st. VBD is merely another tool to "assist" you in your draft. Obviously you have to factor in ADP too, if you didn't, well you'd be kinda stupid. There are many times I'll abandon my VBD rankings completely, if someone falls way past their ADP, if I need to handcuff, if I have 2 RB and need a WR, or even in the later rounds of the draft taking a flier on a sleeper or rookie. The point is, if you use VBD you can't base your draft solely on it.
Now I hear a lot of people complain that VBD is flawed because you're basing your rankings on projections that will obviously be incorrect. That may be true but how is it different then just ranking people? You're "projecting" who will do better than someone else. With VBD you're merely projecting how much better you think one player will be than another. If your projections turn up rankings you think are wrong then change them, it's no big deal.
I'm pretty sure that if you use VBD, you won't be drafting Peyton Manning. Period..
Felix hit the nail on the head with the AVT. VBD and AVT give you a very sound cheat sheet, but that's all VBD ever gives you. Just because a guy is the highest value on your VBD sheet doesn't mean you take him. Drafting always requires assessing the field and figuring out how to get the guy you want as late as possible.
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by RJ24VC15 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 8:57 pm 
