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WR Rankings W/Projections

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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby tanner9919 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:13 am

Why does everyone rank Andre Johnson, so LOW?!?!
I know he scored few tds last season, but he led the NFL in receptions with DAVID CARR throwing to him!

Shaub can't be any worse than Carr, its not possible!

AJ will enjoy his finest season as a pro, and should once again approach 100 receptions. McKardell adds and air of legitimacy to this offense..they haven't had a savvy #2WR like this..I know he's 35 years ol,d but he shouold definitely help out in the passing game, and free up AJ from double-coverages..
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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby bobbing_headz » Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:35 pm

tanner9919 wrote:Why does everyone rank Andre Johnson, so LOW?!?!
I know he scored few tds last season, but he led the NFL in receptions with DAVID CARR throwing to him!

Shaub can't be any worse than Carr, its not possible!

AJ will enjoy his finest season as a pro, and should once again approach 100 receptions. McKardell adds and air of legitimacy to this offense..they haven't had a savvy #2WR like this..I know he's 35 years ol,d but he shouold definitely help out in the passing game, and free up AJ from double-coverages..


IMO Andre is not that good unless it's PPR. Sure he'll get lots of of catches but I seriously doubt he'll get more than 1200-1250 yards and maybe 6-7 TDs. Schaub isn't exactly Peyton manning over there and McKardell is about as good as Moulds ever was.
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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby weridguy » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:47 pm

what about troy williamson? after reading the article:

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/2007/sleepers_deepwr.php

i was thinking about nabbing him in the later rounds as a deep sleeper but i was always curious about his quarterback (ive never really even heard of him)

http://nfl.com/teams/depthcharts/MIN

should i not even have him in mind during the draft?
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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby bobbing_headz » Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:03 pm

weridguy wrote:what about troy williamson? after reading the article:

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/2007/sleepers_deepwr.php

i was thinking about nabbing him in the later rounds as a deep sleeper but i was always curious about his quarterback (ive never really even heard of him)

http://nfl.com/teams/depthcharts/MIN

should i not even have him in mind during the draft?


There is considerable hype about him this year but I don't buy it. Last was exactly the same and he stunk. Jackson is decent but I wouldn't say he's miles better than Brad Johnson. I only listed the top 45 and there will likely be more WRs taken in the draft. If you want to by all means grab him late but I wouldn't reach on him.
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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:16 pm

I'm sorry, I have to say I'm not a fan of these rankings all that much. I personally feel that you will be hard pressed at this point to limit the top tier of WRs to any less than 5 and I would personally even extend that further personally because of the depth in those top WRs. And if you're going to limit it like that, a guy like Chad Johnson who was the definition of inconsistent last year as the #2 guy in the top tier is certainly the wrong person to have there. Without a doubt in my mind I would take Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison above Chad Johnson and I might even take Reggie Wayne above him too.

Also, Fitz and Boldin as low as you have them is downright ridiculous. I have BOTH in my top 10 and so having neither of them higher than 14 is unlikely at best. Those guys are just too talented and Arizona will just have to throw far too much for them both to finish that low. I think the lowest I could possibly see someone having them and it be reasonable is having one in the top 10 and the other in the top 15.

I think Plax is too high considering all the problem and question marks in New York right now especially about Eli's extreme inconsistency. Losing Tiki means fewer TD opportunities in general because Tiki was vital in helping them move the ball up and down the field, I don't think he'll reach 9 TDs this year. I also think that Galloway is too low. He had MUCH better numbers than that last year with absolutely horrid QB play and really whoever starts this year will be a monster upgrade and he'll likely improve upon last years numbers not go down.

All in all I think I'm just not a fan of the tiering you have. I think the top tier of WRs is much larger and includes all of the following (at least in my opinion):

Smith
Harrison
Holt
Wayne
CJ
TO

Then I see the next tier ending up about like this:

Boldin
Fitz
R. Williams
Walker
Driver

Then I think you're looking at these guys for the next group:

Housh
Colston
AJ
Evans
Moss

I just have a hard time saying that there are big enough differences between many of the players in those groups to really separate them too much further than that.
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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby bobbing_headz » Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:33 pm

Appreciate the feedback.

You're probably right about the tiers. I kinda threw together the tiers in about 30 seconds, I don't usually use them but I put them in for the benefit of others. Thinking about it more I do agree with you that CJ should probably not be alone with Smith. Call me crazy but I'm actually thinking that Smith should be in a tier of his own. Maybe I just value him too much. This year does have a very good top WR group. Like mentioned, the difference between the top 6-7 receivers will likely be minimal. Any one could be the top guy. My tiers were mainly based on projected fantasy points though.

As for the Arizona WRs, like I mentioned I feel that Zona is gonna be running much much more this year. Gone are the days of Warner throwing 45+ times per game. I feel they're gonna have a much more conservative offense this year. Now I know that Boldin/Fitz are probably still to low but for me it reflects that I have little faith in either one stepping it up and outperforming the other. But, I know that this is against the majority.

As for Plax, bold projections? Yes. Risky? Probably. Last year was a down year for him though. I'm thinking he can approach or exceed his 2005 stats (76/1214/7) and add a TD or 2. Tiki may be gone but they still have a decent run game, at least in the red zone and Manning is gonna continue to heave the ball down the field regularly. Plus the Giants have decent receivers to play with Plax including Smith who'll hopefully play slot.

Galloway did have a bad QB throwing him the ball last year but I'm not buying this "longevity" he's showing. He can't keep it up forever. Galloway relies on his speed and he certainly isn't getting faster with age. Plus I don't necessarily buy into Garcia.
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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:48 pm

I think you're expecting much too large a change in the Arizona offense this year. Keep in mind that they did use Edge a good amount last year and that's unlikely to rise too much. I think the biggest difference you'll see is the overall productivity of the running game moreso than just running it a ton more. You could see last year with Pittsburgh (where this offensive coaching staff comes from) where having a defense that is struggling can force even a run first team to throw much more than normal. Pittsburgh threw the ball just 1.4 fewer times per game last year than Arizona did and they only ran the ball 3 more times per game than Arizona did. I don't really know that you'll see a drastic change there especially considering that Arizona doesn't exactly have a very strong defense which will likely force them to play like Pittsburgh needed to play last year when they get behind and throw the ball more.

I think we've really yet to see how well these two receivers will work with Matt Leinart because Fitz was hurt much of last season which hurt Boldin as well because he lacked that other target opposite him. Leinart showed flashes of being a good NFL QB and with a likely improved O-Line and more time to throw, it could be a big year for those 3 guys and the Arizona offense in general.

And as far as Galloway is concerned...sure, he wont last forever but he's done pretty well thusfar and really hasn't shown signs of slowing down. And even if you don't "buy into Garcia", it's a tough argument to make that he's any worse than who was throwing him the ball last year.
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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby FatFoot » Wed Aug 01, 2007 6:59 am

Gotta think that CJ will in fact have a better year, with the Bengals' legal problems thinning the WR out a bit. Also, all of his problems seemed to occur in the first half... his second half was great... so I don't personally see any problem putting him way up there. Additionally Delhomme is a big question mark... I think Steve Smith could be in for some tough times if the team is as weak as last year.

FWIW, tough times for Steve Smith could still leave him as the #1 overall WR in FF.
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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby CBMGreatOne » Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:32 am

Then I see the next tier ending up about like this:

Boldin
Fitz
R. Williams
Walker
Driver

Then I think you're looking at these guys for the next group:

Housh
Colston
AJ
Evans
Moss


You aren't too high on Housh. I think I'd like Housh over Fitz/Boldin, and at least over Walker/Driver. Given the QB situation, his red zone prowess, and the absence of Henry, I just don't see how a healthy Housh falls short of 1150, 10. I could see Walker and Driver with as few as 6 TDs a piece if they didn't get off to a hot start.

I've got Housh in tier 2, and IMO, he could even outproduce CJ. Other than that, I like your tiers a lot.
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Re: WR Rankings W/Projections

Postby drsteuss » Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:04 pm

I'm a vikes fan. If Williamson's vision corrections DO help him catch the ball better, then he can be great because he is excellent at getting separation from defenders.

The problem is QB. We will have the worst passing offense in the league this year, and that may negate Troy's potential improvements. I'd only take him in the very late rounds, if at all.
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