I'm seeing Rex Grossman avoided like the plague on most mock drafts.
I have a feeling that he's going to have a big year. That's frickin' hilarious, but if he falls to me at a reasonable bargain, that's a QB that I think may outperform several others who are being ranked above him.
Anyone else feel that way? Okay, maybe not. But I'm sticking with it. Any of you guys have players whom you have similar expectations for, at the risk of mockery?
MTC wrote:I guess it all depends on your definition of "reasonable bargain".
Personally, I feel Grossman = Dilfer...
Stats are actually pretty close, now that I look at it.
Except Dilfer never threw for 3000+ yards...
IMO.
Uh...huh?
You would be hard pressed to find two QBs that are more different than Grossman and Dilfer. They're total opposites.
Dilfer is Mr. "I'll just kind of hang out here and play it safe with the ball while the rest of you win the game". Grossman is Mr. "I'm just gonna win or lose this one on my own by either throwing 5 TDs or 5 ints while trying".
You could draft Grossman as a QB #2 and have a pleasant surprise, but you do NOT want him as your QB #1. The biggest problem with Grossman is you don’t know from game to game if you’re going to get Good Rex or Bad Rex. You could just as easily get four INTs as three TDs, and it doesn’t seem to depend on the competition he’s facing – he either does well or poorly on his own most of the time.
I hear you on Grossman... In most of the early 10-team drafts I have done he has gone undrafted... The problem with Grossman is that he is HORRIBLY inconsistent... He'll have one week where he throws for 300 yards and 3 TD's with a 110.0 QB rating, and then the next week he'll throw for 120 yards with 4 interceptions... And inconsistency DOES suck... But, on the other hand, we know he has the talent to get it done... And I see him as a good b/u QB who could make an EXCELLENT spot-starter if Benson blows up and opposing defenses have to commit their safeties to stopping the run...
I wouldn't want to depend on Rex, but I do think he's got good value on my bench...
As for the other guys who I see blowing up unexpectedly... You have to start with any and all Falcons WR's... I'm not seeing Mike Vick playing this year... Joey Harrington is no stud, but he could benefit greatly from the new system and a much better line than he ever had in Detroit or Miami... The WR crew in Atlanta is talented, and has become even more talented this off-season with the addition of Joe Horn... If Harrington gets the start (which is highly likely), I think you could see a 1,200 yard receiver out of that bunch... Especially with the new offense brought in by Petrino... Joe Horn and Michael Jenkins could be league-breakers in the "teen rounds."
I think Ahman Green is VASTLY underrated right now... The reunion with Sherman should breathe new life into him... And everyone forgets that were it not for the injuries, Dominic Davis was fantasy gold in Houston, even playing behind a worse line than you'll find there right now... The knock on Green is injury history, but you could level the same type of criticism against almost any 2nd tier back... Yet, I see Ahman falling into the fourth and fifth tiers because of it... Obviously people should avoid Ahman in the early rounds of a keeper league, but in a redraft he has tremendous value in the third round or later...
And I also think Randy McMichael is a guy who is poised for a big season... The Rams have never had a tightend who is as talented as McMichael... With so much attention going to stopping the run and double teaming Torry Holt, I think McMichael will have nothing but room to roam across the middle in St. Louis... He's typically being taken as a 2nd TE, but I think he's got good value for those of us who are unwilling to spend a 3rd rounder on Gates or a 5th or 6th rounder on most of the other so-called "elite" TE's... Give me McMichael in the 11th over Winslow in the 5th any day...
And go ahead and write this next one down... San Diego is the top scoring defense in 2007... Forget drafting Chicago or Baltimore in the middle rounds... If you're hell-bent on drafting a defense, pick up San Diego after the 10th... I personally guarantee they outscore the Ravens and the Bears...
Some other undervalued players I am targetting:
1) Deion Branch - he'll take over right where Darrell Jackson left off...
2) Reggie Brown - he's got top-10 WR written all over him (provided McNabb gets and stays healthy)
3) Kevin Jones - sure, he won't help you in the early-goings, but come play-off time he'll be golden (especially since he's going in the 9th/10th rounds)
4) Ben Roethlisberger - no doubt he had a crappy 2006, but he's got a new offense and a maturing Santonio Holmes... Look for the rebound...
5) Anthony Thomas - Marshawn Lynch IS going to take away carries, but Jauron loves the A-train, and of the two guys in this RBBC, Lynch is going in the 3rd and Thomas sticks around 'til the 12th... The value there is pretty clear...
most rookie quaterbacks are inconsistent and have up and downs....I think that was Rex last year since it was his first full season and was playing with the pressure of having to WIN. Most young QB's are on such crappy teams the media does not care so much if they win or lose. Not many young QB's have ever been hounded they way he was on a superbowl team. I believe you will see much more of the good Rex this season and will target him as my #2 this season.
MTC wrote:I guess it all depends on your definition of "reasonable bargain".
Personally, I feel Grossman = Dilfer...
Stats are actually pretty close, now that I look at it.
Except Dilfer never threw for 3000+ yards...
IMO.
Uh...huh?
You would be hard pressed to find two QBs that are more different than Grossman and Dilfer. They're total opposites.
Dilfer is Mr. "I'll just kind of hang out here and play it safe with the ball while the rest of you win the game". Grossman is Mr. "I'm just gonna win or lose this one on my own by either throwing 5 TDs or 5 ints while trying".
I understand what you are saying, but I was talking as a FF QB, not an NFL QB. I'd be interested to see what their career fantasy PPG comes out to be.
Well, I don't know if I have the courage of my convictions here, but of all of the FF undrafted players I'm seeing, I think Grossman could be the biggest surprise. I wouldn't base that on the first game of the season, but after that, they're going to be in (I hate the fact that we can't use the term dogfight... thinking WWI bi-planes and snoopy and things, not Ron Mexico) a lot of battles, which is usually very good for QB output (though possibly seriously frightening in terms of mistakes.) I'm not going to reach for him, but if I end up loaded on RBs this year and struggling for QBs... I think I'd take him over Rivers and the like.
I'm also going to be fascinated by Brady this year... I don't remember a NE team so stacked at WR, with a QB who is shoots the ball out in any number of directions, as opposed to having "his guy." But that's on everyone's radar. I guess I'm saying I'll be surprised if Rex isn't a top 10 QB this year.
San Diego defense isn't a shocker, though no doubt the Bears and Ravens will go earlier... Atlanta WRs is a really interesting proposition, though.
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by FatFoot » Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:11 am 
